07/06/2015

Multiple Rounds of Storms Expected Tuesday!

Say goodbye to our brief dry stretch.  

Satrad

A cold front approaching from the Plains will combine with heating and a ton of moisture tomorrow to produce numerous thunderstorms in our area.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

At4

At5

At6

At7

At8

It seems likely that we will see multiple rounds of storms tomorrow and although a few storms by the end of the day could contain some severe gusts, the primary threat tomorrow looks to come in the form of torrential rainfall.  

The latest run of the NAM is showing widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain for areas along and north of the river.

Dma rainfall

Jude will be in with a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy 6sx

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

07/05/2015

Storms Return Promptly on Tuesday.

Following a nice break from the recent heavy rains, we now focus on our next storm system, a cold front, currently sparking strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains and Upper Midwest.  

Satrad

This front looks to arrive here by late Tuesday with a good bet for storms and the potential for more heavy rain fall.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

We fast forward to Tuesday morning with AT showing a morning round of storms gathering over Western Kentucky.

At1

AT expands this activity and pushes it across the Western half of the viewing area during the morning hours. (Not all models agree on this morning round)

At2

The morning round exits as it weakens and moves east.  Meanwhile a new round develops along our western counties. 

At6

This activity grows with heat and humidity increasing.  

At3

Storms become widespread during the evening hours.  

At4

Will there be a severe threat? 

While you can't rule out strong storms in a set up like this, widespread severe weather looks unlikely at this point.  However, storms on Tuesday could put down some very heavy rainfall once again.  

Storm chances continue through the middle of the week.

Rain chances

Jude will be in with a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy 6sx

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

2015's Precipitation and Temperature Averages So Far...

We're a little over halfway through 2015 and how have precipitation totals and temperatures compared to normal? Well, it's been a wet year so far. The graphic below shows the precipitation departure from normal in inches. The blue, green and pink colors represent above normal precipitation. Much of the lower Ohio Valley west toward the mid Mississippi Valley is averaging 8 to as much as 20 inches above normal! 

Central_region_precip_departure_180days

A lot of that rain fell in the month of June. The map below is an estimate of those totals from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which uses both NWS radars as well as area rain gauges.  Based on this map, portions of southern Indiana received up to 13-14" of rainfall in June!  The values match up well with a nearby Cooperative Weather Observer in Leavenworth, IN (the southeast part of Crawford county), who recorded 9.59" of precipitation in June.  Another observer near Paoli had 9.12".

June_total_rain

Finally, what about the forecast? Well, the latest 1 month and 3 month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center shows that there is higher chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. For now, the wet/coolish pattern continues.

July_outlook_temp

July_outlook_precip

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

07/04/2015

NASA: Cosmic Explosions!

Happy Fourth of July to those of you that celebrate it! We couldn’t let the date slip by without presenting a little display of cosmic fireworks. We think you’ll find they’re much quieter than the earthly kind.

We start with this 3D visualization of the nebula Gum 29 with the star cluster Westerlund 2 at its core. Young stars light up the gas around them as we sail through:

In 1901, GK Persei captivated skygazers as it briefly appeared as the brightest object in the night sky. Now, astronomers understand that this light show was caused by a thermonuclear explosion on the surface of a white dwarf star. This recent image of GK Persei contains X-rays from Chandra (blue), optical data from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope (yellow), and radio data from the National Science Foundation’s Very Large Array (pink). 

NGC_3603bImage credit:
X-ray: NASA/CXC/RIKEN/D.Takei et al; Optical: NASA/STScI; Radio: NRAO/VLA

Supernova 1987A has put on a light show that has kept astronomers studying it for nearly 30 years. The vivid ring of material around the supernova, captured here by Hubble’s Advanced Camera for Surveys, was likely shed by the original star about 20,000 years before it exploded. 

 

Gkper-1024x797Image credit: NASA, ESA, P. Challis and R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)

Astronomers have nicknamed this planetary nebula “the Eskimo Nebula” because they see a head wearing a parka hood. The gas clouds around this object composed the outer layers of a Sun-like star thousands of years ago. Now, a strong wind of particles from the central star is ejecting the unusually long filaments seen around it.

199690main_rs_image_feature_762_1024x768-1024x768Image credit: NASA/Andrew Fruchter (STScI)

The Helix Nebula, another beautiful planetary nebula, has an eerie resemblance to a giant, all-seeing eye in this infrared image from the Spitzer Space Telescope. This object is what remains after the death of a small- to medium-sized star. The tiny white dot in the center is a white dwarf, the glowing red gas was blown out when the star died, and the outer gaseous layers are seen in brilliant blue and green.

182971main_image_feature_875_ys_full-1024x852Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ.of Ariz.

A stellar nursery is a surprisingly violent and energetic place. Astronomers have a chance to peer inside NGC 3603, a starburst cluster in the constellation Carina, because ultraviolet radiation and stellar winds have blown a cavity in the gas and dust surrounding these huge young stars. 

170938main_image_feature_773_ys_fullImage credit: NASA, ESA, R. O’Connell (University of Virginia), F. Paresce (National Institute for Astrophysics, Bologna, Italy), E. Young (Universities Space Research Association/Ames Research Center), the WFC3 Science Oversight Committee, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

 

Images and information courtesy NASA

 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy 6sx

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

Fireworks Forecast & Beyond...

Happy 4th of July! It's been a murky morning so far with all of the clouds and areas of fog. Temperatures are in the mid 70's around Louisville with a gentle north wind...

11

Expect a good deal of clouds this morning before we start getting some intervals sunshine during the afternoon. It won't be perfect, but not bad either. There's a 30% chance for a few showers/storms to pop up. Most stay dry as these should remain south of the I-64 corridor and not last very long...

4

If you have plans to watch the fireworks at Waterfront Park, I don't think you will be disappointed. Dress for temps falling from the 80's, back down into the 70's. Skies will be partly cloudy with a slim chance for a shower...

3

More sunshine, warmer temperatures and only an isolated storm chance south of the Parkways tomorrow. Sunday looks like nicest day of the holiday weekend. Have fun! 

9

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

07/02/2015

Dangerously Close Video Of Missouri Tornado...

On Wednesday July 1, a tornado was reported in Lee's Summit, Missouri. Roofs were torn off, cars were overturned and tents toppled. This amateur video was shot dangerously close, in fact, you can hear the roar of the tornado....

 

Video Courtesy: Daily News

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

40% Chance Of Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Kentucky...

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

Mcd1278
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING SCATTERED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON IF/WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS. DOWNSTREAM DIABATIC HEATING IS LIKELY TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KY INTO FAR NRN MIDDLE TN AND THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LVX/VWX VWP DATA SAMPLED ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...BUT THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

  3

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Flash Flood Watch Expanded...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

 1
* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.


-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

07/01/2015

Smoke From Canadian Wildfires Streams South...

The 2015 fire season got off to an unusually early start in Canada when blazes broke out in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta in late May. As the season has progressed, the air in western Canada—as well as large swaths of the United States—grew gray and hazy with smoke. A sharp trough in the jet stream sent a river of smoke all the way down into the Ohio Valley. You can see all of the haze in the sky, which may add an extra orange/red glow to the sun and moon. Check out the image below that shows the smoke down in Mississippi and Arkansas as well!

CI1dpcRWEAATeB5

Image Credit: NASA

A combination of unusually warm temperatures, parched forests, lightning, and strong winds have fueled the outburst of fire. According to the Canadian government, 168 uncontrolled fires and 273 controlled fires were burning in Canada on June 29. More than than 1,300 people have had to evacuate their homes, and health officials have issued health warnings in several provinces because of the smoke.

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch Is Possible For Parts Of Kentucky...

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NW GA...SCNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011629Z - 011730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
Mcd1264
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN TO THE 80S ALONG MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR THE TN-MS STATELINE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL KY AND ERN TN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN TN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 2 TO 5 KM AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ORGANIZATIONS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY AS CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL TN THIS AFTERNOON.


-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather