02/06/2016

Watch An Entire Year Of Weather Across The Globe In Less Than 9 Minutes!

This visualization, comprised of imagery from the geostationary satellites of EUMETSAT, NOAA and the JMA, shows an entire year of weather across the globe during 2015 in less than 9 minutes! There are several things I want to point out. First, notice the snow gradually melting as winter turns into spring. You can also clearly see the counterclockwise rotation of storms in the Northern Hemisphere, and the clockwise spin down in the Southern Hemisphere. Around the 6:30 mark, keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin to watch the evolution of Hurricane Joaquin... 

 

Video Courtesy: EUMETSAT

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

02/05/2016

Snow Squalls Likely Next Week. Let's Talk Accumulation Potential!

We are about to see a powerful front move into our area and it will absolutely have impacts on our area. This front will allow cold air to surge from early next week through the middle part of the week. When cold air surges, we normally see some type of precipitation occur. In this blog, I want to discuss the change from rain to snow and how much could accumulate.

 

Transition From Rain To Snow

 

The first part of this story will begin late in the day on Sunday as our arctic cold front approaches the area. This should generate showers late in the day (after sunset) on Sunday but it does appear the ground temperatures will be too warm to support anything other than rain on the actual cold front. Notice AdvanceTrak bringing the initial batch through as rain. As you look, you will see the timestamp on the top right part of each image.

 

AdvanceTrak 1

 

AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

With the cold air filtering in on Monday, we should see a setup that is solid to support high intensity snow squalls. Remember, these are the winter version of the summer t-storm so you can get high intensity bursts for periods of time. The data shows the cold surge will be best on Monday and Tuesday meaning the snow squall chance is best on these two days.

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Monday

Notice the solid cold surge occurring on Monday which is favorable for snow squalls.

 

Gfs_850_1

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Tuesday

Notice the same cold surge occurring on Tuesday supporting more snow showers and snow squalls.

 

Gfs_850_2

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Wednesday

By Wednesday, the cold surge is subsiding and the snow showers should as well.

 

Gfs_850_3

 

 

How Much Snow Could Fall?

 

The computer models have been quite consistent with this storm system showing light accumulations are possible. When I say light, I mean an inch or two is totally possible. I will stop the computer models at Monday 5 pm, Tuesday 5 pm, and Wednesday 5 pm so you can get an idea of how much total has fallen in each timeframe. These totals are cumulative, so NOT in addition. Notice the name of each computer model and timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

GFS Computer Model

Notice the GFS shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday with an isolated total to near 3".

 

GFS

 

GFS 2

 

GFS 3

 

EURO Computer Model

Notice the EURO computer model also shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday. There is no question that this could lead to some slick roadways.

 

EURO

 

EURO 2

 

EURO 3

 

 

My Thoughts On Snow Totals For Next Week

 

The data continues to show a very good setup for high intensity snow squalls on Monday and Tuesday of next week. These snow squalls can produce lower visibility at times and very much have the ability to produce road coverings. The data suggest once we hit about 7 am on Monday, the atmosphere should be cold enough to support only frozen precipitation and the change would be sharp. This takes ice off the table in this kind of a situation. AdvanceTrak does show the snow squalls beginning on Monday.

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

This seems like a solid candidate for a light accumulation over a couple day period. I think a 1" total for many of us is likely and some could get closer to 2", especially in our NE counties. The will fall over 2 days so it will mitigate the impact some, but there will still likely be slick roads by Tuesday in parts of the area.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

 

02/04/2016

A Tornado Hits A Tennessee High School Tuesday & The Surveillance Video Was Just Released. Wow.

Tuesday there were a number of tornadoes that touched down to our south including an EF-1 tornado that hit Crockett County High School in Tennessee. The surveillance video as the tornado hit was just released showing the tornado tearing apart some buildings near the school and power lines exploding. Take a look at the multiple angles from the school as the tornado hit.

 

 

 

 The tornado was rated as an EF-1 with a maximum width of around 75 yards. Not a monster tornado, but as you can see every tornado is serious.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

 

02/03/2016

Data Supports Arctic Invasion Next Week!

Following four straight days with temps up into the 60's, we'll be getting back to reality over the next few days with temps back to seasonably cold levels tomorrow and Friday.

Temps moderate this weekend and then it looks like we'll have some SERIOUS cold to deal with as we head into next week.

Arctic Air Building! 

Current air temperatures across Central and Northern Canada are running some 10 to 20 to near 30 degrees below zero!

At temps

Eventually, a chunk of this arctic air mass will invade the Eastern US.  

The latest data continues to support the idea of a deep trough of low pressure developing over the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning.  

500mbna1

Ahead of this upper feature, the cold will begin to surge into our area early next week.

Timing out the Cold

Here's a look at surface temps via the 12z GFS...

Monday Evening

Sfctrv1

Tuesday Morning

Sfctrv2

Tuesday Evening

Sfctrv3

Wednesday Morning

Sfctrv4

You get the idea, temps really take a dive with widespread single digits possible by early Wednesday.  

Factoring in the wind! OUCH!!

These are actual air temps, it will feel colder when you factor in the wind with wind chill values currently forecasted to drop to more than 10 degrees below zero in some cases!

At9

The tip of the Proverbial Ice Berg?

While the cold early next week looks like a lock at this point, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to what will happen after that. 

It is worth noting though what some of the data is saying.  Like this upper wind pattern for next Saturday (Feb 13th) which is clearly showing a displacement of the polar vortex.  

500mbna3

Should this occur, then we will likely be dealing with yet another arctic wave in our near future.  

What about snow?  

In addition to the cold, snow showers are likely with the arrival of the cold on Monday and Tuesday with light accumulations possible.  

Marc will have a full update on the snow potential and just how cold it will get on WDRB News tonight.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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02/02/2016

Recap of NWS Briefing Regarding Severe Weather Risk Tonight

The NWS decided not to do a conference call today because the greatest threat of severe weather appears to be the west today. For what it is worth, I think this was the right decision from the NWS. As we stand at 2:00 pm on Tuesday, notice the first tornado watch has been issued to our west.

 

Warnings

 

While there are storms ahead of the line now, the main show will be forming to the west over the next couple of hours. The storms are well ahead of the instability that fuels storms, so we do not expect these to be severe.

 

StormViewHD 1

 

StormViewHD 2

 

 

NWS Briefing Info

 

The NWS released their briefing slides recently, so I wanted to recap the information here.

 

 

NWS Conference Call 1

 

NWS Conference Call 2

 

 

 

Jude Redfield had a recap from around 1 pm and if you would like to catch up on our thoughts, please visit this blog... http://bit.ly/1JVJ1Jx

 

I will have my full update on storm potential on WDRB News at 4 pm, 6 pm, 6:30 pm, 10 pm, and 11 pm. See you soon.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

 

Weather Blog: Severe Weather Timeline

From Jude Redfield...

    Scattered severe storms are likely tonight. Only one adjustment has been made to the previous forecasts. It now appears the bulk of the storms arrive between 8 pm and 1 am. Straight line wind gusts in excess of 55mph are likely with a few of the storms. Keep in mind these kind of high wind gusts will not impact all of us. What typically occurs in situations similar to this are brief areas of rotation that pop up on the radar. This will most likely prompt a few tornado warnings. I don't find any evidence of a tornado outbreak, but quick spin ups are likely.

ColdBlast

    In my opinion areas in the red zone below stand the best chance at severe t-storms tonight.

RadarHelp1

    Please view the future radar images below and plan accordingly.

Snow Reports

 

WatchWarning

    The severe threat will quickly fade after 2am. Rain amounts of 1" - 3" are likely as these storms move through at speeds of 50-60mph.

Specialgraphic

    Severe storms are likely tonight with wind speeds in excess of 55mph. These winds will be strong enough to knock down many tree limbs and even some trees. Scattered power outages are likely. While an outbreak of tornadoes isn't likely, a few tornado warnings in Kentuckiana will most likely occur.  Make sure to check in with Marc on WDRB News starting at 4pm. At this time he will have a great handle at an even more detailed timeline. -Jude Redfield-

02/01/2016

Severe Weather Likely In Our Area On Tuesday. My Analysis Of The Threat Inside...

Groundhog day (Tuesday) looks like it is going to be an active one in our area. I feel pretty confident that we will see some severe weather in our area on Tuesday, so I want to discuss the timeline for the storms and the main threats in tonight's blog. If you are just looking for my thoughts, I have a "My Thoughts" section at the end of the blog to just get to the main points in this blog.

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Tuesday

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has had a good beat on this storm system for a while. We have been talking about their risk for days and they have us in their higher end slight risk of severe weather for Tuesday. On TV, I don't show the "enhanced" risk because it can be rather confusing, but in the blog, I can explain it a bit better.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice SPC has our entire area in their slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday. We do not show the "enhanced" risk on TV because we feel it can get very confusing to have 6 thunderstorm classes, but in the blog I have highlighted their enhanced risk to near the Ohio River.

 

Spc 2 cat

 

Severe Risk 2

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice SPC has a 15% chance of severe weather for their slight risk area on Tuesday with a 30% chance covering their enhanced risk area. In year's past, the 30% area was still considered slight risk so I just want to make that distinction.

 

Spc 2 prob

 

 

An Analysis Of The Severe Storm Ingredients In Place For Tuesday Night...

 

To get organized severe weather, we traditionally need specific ingredients present. It has been a little while since we discussed severe storm risk, so I want to remind you of the ingredients I look for when analyzing a severe threat.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Forcing

The forcing late Tuesday comes from an absolutely powerful upper level low that will move across our region. The low is absolutely a beast with more than sufficient forcing for storms in our area.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

The second part to the forcing is the cold front and it is solid. Behind the front, we will see temperatures drop about 20 degrees so it will be a more than sufficient to fire storms late Tuesday.

 

Nam_850_1

 

The bottom line is the forcing is easily enough to fire storms on Tuesday evening.

 

Wind Energy

The wind energy ahead of this storm is incredibly strong. We also do see some change in the wind direction with height which makes this type of wind shear "directional" wind shear. Directional wind shear can enhance the severe threat in certain situations and does open the door for isolated tornadoes. It is indeed important to note when directional wind shear is present.

 

As always, I will start at the ground and move upward into the atmosphere. The winds start out at the ground from the southeast late on Tuesday at about 15 - 25 mph and shift to the south-southwest / increase to nearly 70 mph just 1 mile above the ground. They are incredibly strong winds.

 

NAM Winds At The Surface Late Tuesday

Notice the NAM computer model shows southeasterly winds late Wednesday at about 15 - 25 mph. These are solid surface winds.

NAM_SFC_wnd_1

NAM Winds 1 Mile Above The Ground Late Tuesday

Notice the NAM computer model increases the strength of these winds a whole lot to nearly 70 mph just 1 mile above the ground. These are seriously strong winds. We can also see a change in the wind direction to the south-southwest or a shift of about 70 degrees. This is definitely directional wind shear.

NAM_850_wnd_1

The wind shear is EASILY supportive of severe weather on Tuesday and it is important to note this is directional wind shear.

 

Instability

Winter severe setups almost always have tons of wind energy and not very much instability. Tuesday falls exactly in that traditional cold season threat. The instability in virtually every computer model is just not very high at all for our area. Not very high and non-existent are very different though. The NAM shows more instability than the other models, but I will say this is a very known bias of the NAM.

 

NAM Instability Late Tuesday

Notice the NAM computer model still indicates about 750 units of instability in the storm time frame late Tuesday. This seems maybe a touch high, but I will say it is possible considering some will get close 70 degrees on Tuesday.

 

NAM CAPE 1

 

GFS Instability Late Tuesday

Notice the GFS computer model has only about 250 units of instability in the storm time frame late Tuesday which is about 1/3 of the NAM's numbers. This is not enormous instability values, but also not non-existent.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

 

The bottom line is that some ingredients are clearly present in force late Wednesday, while others are marginally present.

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Tuesday

 

The forcing to fire storms late in the day on Tuesday is superb and there is no questions we will see t-storms late Tuesday. The wind energy or shear is very powerful on Tuesday. Winds increase to nearly 70 mph just a mile off the ground and that is very strong. The winds are so strong through the column of the atmosphere on Tuesday that the NWS has posted a Wind Advisory for our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds at the surface could gust to 45 mph outside of the t-storms.

 

Warnings

 

Continuing to look at the wind energy for Tuesday, we see noticeable change in the wind direction as we go upward in the atmosphere indicating this is "directional" shear. That is an important distinction because directional wind shear can enhance a severe potential slightly and does introduce a risk of tornadoes. The instability in the winter is always the limiting factor, but it does appear enough instability will be present to support severe storms. That means we have all 3 ingredients needed to support severe weather in our area.

 

There is a variable called the "supercell composite" which can give us an idea if rotating t-storms are likely and if the important variables point toward severe weather. You can clearly see our area has a favorable signature for severe weather on Tuesday evening with very solid supercell composite values.

 

Nam supercell index

 

AdvanceTrak shows the cluster approaching our area late Tuesday and moving across our area Tuesday night. As you look at the data, you can see the window opens around 6 pm and closes around 1 am. It is pretty obvious that AdvanceTrak clearly shows a line of strong to severe storms late tomorrow. You will notice the timestamp on the top right part of each image. 

 

AdvanceTrak 1

 

AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

AdvanceTrak 5

 

AdvanceTrak 6

 

AdvanceTrak 7

 

AdvanceTrak 8

 

 

The bottom line is that some severe storms will likely occur in our area late Tuesday and Tuesday night. I think the window for severe storms opens in our western counties around 6 pm and ends in our eastern counties at 3 am. Louisville should fall in the middle of that timeframe. I think damaging winds, small hail, and isolated tornadoes are all on the table. This is not a high tornado threat, but we absolutely do see quick tornado spin-ups in this kind of scenario in our area.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

Weather Blog: Severe Storms Are Likely

From Jude Redfield...

    Tuesday starts chilly with temps in the 30s around sunrise. A blow torch south wind then develops and has us in the upper 60s by days end. This warm surge delivers ample moisture combined with intense jetstream wind energy to give all of Kentuckiana a good chance for storms. Some of these storms will be severe Tuesday night. Coverage will ramp up around 6pm just to our west. This developing line of storms will move NE around 50-55 mph. A generic window for severe weather looks to be from around 6pm to midnight. The greatest impact from severe weather looks to be around 7:30pm-11pm. After midnight the severe storms quickly head east away from Kentuckiana.

Specialgraphic

    Please check out the detailed future radar images below for the best guess on how the radar will appear Tuesday evening.

Stormview

WatchWarning

Snow Reports

**MOST OF KENTUCKIANA IS IN THE ENHANCED ZONE FOR SEVERE STORMS**

RadarHelp1

    I do feel it's inevitable that at the very least a few severe storms will occur in Kentuckiana. The primary threat comes in the form of damaging straight line wind. Some of these gusts could exceed 55mph. A few storms will most likely contain some rotation. Since we aren't looking at massive amounts of instability it will be difficult to have a situation that would produce widespread tornadoes. This situation does yield enough rotation however that a few tornado warnings are certainly possible. One final note...While small hailstones are possible, nothing indicates large destructive hail would come along with tomorrow nights situation.

ColdBlast

    Please stay up to date with this always changing weather situation. Marc will have the latest future radar images starting today at 4pm as we really dial in the hour by hour Tuesday night outlook -Jude Redfield-

01/31/2016

Severe Risk Posted For Our Area Tuesday...

It feels more like the middle of April as opposed to the last day of January. Expect more clouds than sun, windy conditions and highs in the upper 60's to near 70 today. Gusty showers arrive from the west after sunset, but should be gone by sunrise. The next storm is the one that needs to be watched for strong to severe storms. Notice that the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of Kentuckiana under their "Slight Risk" for severe weather Tuesday evening...

7

The main threat with a set up like this is damaging straight-line winds. Gusts could range from 45-65 mph leading to a few severe thunderstorm warnings. There is some helicity, or spin in the atmosphere as well, so a brief, isolated tornado warning can't be ruled out. Key words being "brief" and "isolated" so most of us just end up with the gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Areas of flash flooding may also be a concern as a line of nasty storms roll through between 6 PM Tuesday - 12 AM Wednesday. This is simply a rough estimate of the timing. We will be able to give you more specifics in the coming days. Take a look at the future radar images below and check back with us every so often for updates. Hope you're enjoying the spring-like warmth!

9

Blog 3

6

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

01/30/2016

What Goes Up, Must Come Down! When Storms End Spring-Like Warmth...

You've been waiting all week for this! Temperatures soar into the 60's today with plenty of sunshine. High pressure keeps us dry and sends numbers a solid 15-20 degrees above the average high of 44...

3

Even though we hang on to the mild air Sunday, clouds take over the skies and winds pick up. A shower or two is possible in our far northwestern counties around noon. Otherwise, much of day looks relatively dry before gusty showers move in after dark...

1

Monday turns out to be slightly cooler, but not bad with readings in the 50's. Then we turn our attention to the next storm set to arrive Tuesday evening. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and damaging winds are the main threats. However, brief tornadoes can't be ruled out with a change in wind direction with height... 

2

We are keeping a close eye on the potential for severe storms late Tuesday. The rest of the week will feel a lot more like winter as temperatures fall back into the 30's and 40's for highs. Have a nice weekend! 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather