A cold front approaching from the Plains will combine with heating and a ton of moisture tomorrow to produce numerous thunderstorms in our area.
Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...
It seems likely that we will see multiple rounds of storms tomorrow and although a few storms by the end of the day could contain some severe gusts, the primary threat tomorrow looks to come in the form of torrential rainfall.
The latest run of the NAM is showing widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain for areas along and north of the river.
Jude will be in with a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.
We're a little over halfway through 2015 and how have precipitation totals and temperatures compared to normal? Well, it's been a wet year so far. The graphic below shows the precipitation departure from normal in inches. The blue, green and pink colors represent above normal precipitation. Much of the lower Ohio Valley west toward the mid Mississippi Valley is averaging 8 to as much as 20 inches above normal!
A lot of that rain fell in the month of June. The map below is an estimate of those totals from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which uses both NWS radars as well as area rain gauges. Based on this map, portions of southern Indiana received up to 13-14" of rainfall in June! The values match up well with a nearby Cooperative Weather Observer in Leavenworth, IN (the southeast part of Crawford county), who recorded 9.59" of precipitation in June. Another observer near Paoli had 9.12".
Finally, what about the forecast? Well, the latest 1 month and 3 month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center shows that there is higher chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. For now, the wet/coolish pattern continues.
Happy Fourth of July to those of you that celebrate it! We couldn’t let the date slip by without presenting a little display of cosmic fireworks. We think you’ll find they’re much quieter than the earthly kind.
We start with this 3D visualization of the nebula Gum 29 with the star cluster Westerlund 2 at its core. Young stars light up the gas around them as we sail through:
In 1901, GK Persei captivated skygazers as it briefly appeared as the brightest object in the night sky. Now, astronomers understand that this light show was caused by a thermonuclear explosion on the surface of a white dwarf star. This recent image of GK Persei contains X-rays from Chandra (blue), optical data from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope (yellow), and radio data from the National Science Foundation’s Very Large Array (pink).
Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/RIKEN/D.Takei et al; Optical: NASA/STScI; Radio: NRAO/VLA
Supernova 1987A has put on a light show that has kept astronomers studying it for nearly 30 years. The vivid ring of material around the supernova, captured here by Hubble’s Advanced Camera for Surveys, was likely shed by the original star about 20,000 years before it exploded.
Image credit: NASA, ESA, P. Challis and R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)
Astronomers have nicknamed this planetary nebula “the Eskimo Nebula” because they see a head wearing a parka hood. The gas clouds around this object composed the outer layers of a Sun-like star thousands of years ago. Now, a strong wind of particles from the central star is ejecting the unusually long filaments seen around it.
Image credit: NASA/Andrew Fruchter (STScI)
The Helix Nebula, another beautiful planetary nebula, has an eerie resemblance to a giant, all-seeing eye in this infrared image from the Spitzer Space Telescope. This object is what remains after the death of a small- to medium-sized star. The tiny white dot in the center is a white dwarf, the glowing red gas was blown out when the star died, and the outer gaseous layers are seen in brilliant blue and green.
Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ.of Ariz.
A stellar nursery is a surprisingly violent and energetic place. Astronomers have a chance to peer inside NGC 3603, a starburst cluster in the constellation Carina, because ultraviolet radiation and stellar winds have blown a cavity in the gas and dust surrounding these huge young stars.
Image credit: NASA, ESA, R. O’Connell (University of Virginia), F. Paresce (National Institute for Astrophysics, Bologna, Italy), E. Young (Universities Space Research Association/Ames Research Center), the WFC3 Science Oversight Committee, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)
Happy 4th of July! It's been a murky morning so far with all of the clouds and areas of fog. Temperatures are in the mid 70's around Louisville with a gentle north wind...
Expect a good deal of clouds this morning before we start getting some intervals sunshine during the afternoon. It won't be perfect, but not bad either. There's a 30% chance for a few showers/storms to pop up. Most stay dry as these should remain south of the I-64 corridor and not last very long...
If you have plans to watch the fireworks at Waterfront Park, I don't think you will be disappointed. Dress for temps falling from the 80's, back down into the 70's. Skies will be partly cloudy with a slim chance for a shower...
More sunshine, warmer temperatures and only an isolated storm chance south of the Parkways tomorrow. Sunday looks like nicest day of the holiday weekend. Have fun!
On Wednesday July 1, a tornado was reported in Lee's Summit, Missouri. Roofs were torn off, cars were overturned and tents toppled. This amateur video was shot dangerously close, in fact, you can hear the roar of the tornado....
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING SCATTERED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON IF/WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED
AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS. DOWNSTREAM DIABATIC
HEATING IS LIKELY TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL
KY INTO FAR NRN MIDDLE TN AND THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LVX/VWX VWP DATA SAMPLED
ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...BUT THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS MAY TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
The 2015 fire season got off to an unusually early start in Canada when blazes broke out in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta in late May. As the season has progressed, the air in western Canada—as well as large swaths of the United States—grew gray and hazy with smoke. A sharp trough in the jet stream sent a river of smoke all the way down into the Ohio Valley. You can see all of the haze in the sky, which may add an extra orange/red glow to the sun and moon. Check out the image below that shows the smoke down in Mississippi and Arkansas as well!
Image Credit: NASA
A combination of unusually warm temperatures, parched forests, lightning, and strong winds have fueled the outburst of fire. According to the Canadian government, 168 uncontrolled fires and 273 controlled fires were burning in Canada on June 29. More than than 1,300 people have had to evacuate their homes, and health officials have issued health warnings in several provinces because of the smoke.
AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NW GA...SCNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011629Z - 011730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
IN TO THE 80S ALONG MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR THE
TN-MS STATELINE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL KY AND ERN TN. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN TN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 2 TO 5 KM
AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR CELL ORGANIZATIONS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE
COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY AS CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL TN THIS