07/24/2017

NASA: Striking Image of Benign Extratropical Cyclone!

Northatlantic_tmo_2017197Satellite image acquired July 16, 2017

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Cyclones that form over Earth’s mid-latitudes—like the storm that swirled over the United States in 2010—are often memorable for the wind, rain, and tornadoes they can spawn. But not every one of these low-pressure systems delivers severe weather.

On July 16, 2017, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of a mid-latitude (extratropical) cyclone off the coast of Portugal. It is possible that the clouds were not even producing rain, but they still make for a striking image. This image was composed with visible and infrared light (MODIS bands 7-2-1), a combination that highlights the contrast between clouds and land.

Extratropical cyclones occur where warm and cold air masses meet. They gain energy from this temperature contrast, and develop cyclonic circulation around a center of low pressure. In the vicinity of the Iberian Peninsula, these systems are relatively slow-moving and tend to be poorly developed in summer; they often form clouds without any precipitation. In contrast, fast-moving systems dominate in winter; they are more developed, and are often linked to heavy rain and stronger winds.

“A slow-moving cyclone over the Portuguese coast sucked in dry, cloud-free air from the Iberian Peninsula and moist, cloudy air from the Atlantic, forming a spiral,” said Peter Knippertz, a meteorologist at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. He notes that the clouds wrapped up in the circulation appear to be marine stratocumulus.

Hot, dry continental areas typically see lower pressure (thermal lows) than the nearby ocean. Sometimes these thermal lows become mobile and move offshore. When the image was acquired, there was a particularly strong contrast between North Atlantic and continental Europe. According to Knippertz, the Iberian Peninsula was experiencing a heat wave at the time, with widespread temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (100° Fahrenheit).

Extratropical cyclones like this one usually occur during the summer months over Iberia, as well as Morocco. See the circulation off Morocco in July 2016 and more recently in June 2017.

Image and information courtesy NASA

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy KappellNAS

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LOOK UP! The International Space Station Will Fly Across The Sky Tonight...

Looking into the night sky and seeing the International Space Station fly overhead is mind-blowing! Just think, you are watching something that is 230 miles above you, flying at nearly 5 miles per second. If you've never taken the opportunity to check it out, it's worth a few minutes of your time...

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How To View The International Space Station

Monday:

When To Look...

The ISS will be visible in our area this evening at 10:40 pm for 6 minutes! 6 minutes is more than enough to view it, but remember, it will be moving FAST.

Where To Look...

At 10:40 pm, the ISS will appear about 12 degrees above the horizon in the west part of the sky and move toward the northeast. The ISS will reach a peak elevation of 34 degrees above the horizon, so don't look too high in the sky...

Weather

Good news, you won't sweat that much with slightly lower humidity and temps dropping through the 80's. Enjoy the show!

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-Rick DeLuca

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07/23/2017

Excessive Rains for Some This Morning. Another Round Expected This Week!

To say we needed a drink, was an understatement.  The 1.13" of rain at the airport, was very welcomed!

Almanac

The rainfall totals from last night's/this morning's slow moving thunderstorms was wide ranging with our southern counties only picking up a few tenths of in inch.

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For the metro area rainfall amounts ranged from around a half inch to nearly 2 inches for portions of Central Louisville.  

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For our western counties, the rainfall was excessive with some areas picking up as much as 7 1/2 of rain in parts of Orange County!  

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This of course led to some flash flooding issues.  

Fortunately, that part of our area will get a chance to dry out starting tomorrow with those higher rain chances pushing south into Kentucky where the need for rain continues.

Rain chances

After a quiet start to the week, it looks like our chances for more beneficial rains will return on Thursday and perhaps into early Friday.

Rain chances

Jude will be in with a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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NOWCAST: More Storms on Sunday?

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a"Slight Risk" for severe weather for east of 65 today. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

The potential threats will be heavy rain, gusty damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning.

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The widespread active weather from overnight and this morning will slowly but surely push to the east and taper down. This is an MCS and once it moves eastward, we will see a brief break from the shower and thunderstorm activity. Isolated showers will still be possible.

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There is a chance to see more showers and storms redevelop along a remnant outflow boundary later this afternoon and evening in the southern part of our viewing area. They will be more scattered in nature in comparison to this morning's widespread rain.

Some of the showers and storms could be strong to severe in our southern counties particularly because the atmosphere is not as worked over from this morning's rain. Therefore, there is more instability there in comparison to our northern counties. We could see gusty winds, lightning, heavy rain and the potential for localized flooding. 

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Today will not be as warm as yesterday. Highs will be in the low 90s rather than the upper 90s. It will still be muggy, but dew points will be dropping as well. Our whole area is no longer under the heat advisory.   

Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get an idea of coverage for the rest of today. 

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Showers and storms will end tonight, around 10-12 am. However, we could see a few more showers and storms on Monday, but they will be very isolated. Join Jeremy tonight on WDRB News to see the latest data. 

If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

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-Katie McGraw 

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07/22/2017

Slow Moving Front Delivers Strong Storms for Some Tonight!

Following another blistering hot day which featured a high of 97 degrees and a peak heat index of 109, the arrival of a slow moving cold front promises to bring some relief to the area over the next 24 hours with scattered storms.

Satrad

In addition to the potential for beneficial rains, unfortunately, some storms will carry a severe risk with it with the potential for damaging wind. 

Spc

A Slight Risk has been issued for areas north of I-64 for tonight. 

Let's time out the storms with AdvanceTrak...

At1

Scattered storms develop out of Central Illinois and Indiana.

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AT shows storms slowly organizing and pushing south towards the Ohio River by 2 or 3 AM.  

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In addition to a few damaging wind gusts, these storms will be slow movers and could drop torrential rains in some areas.

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Storms are expected to diminish and move east into the Bluegrass around dawn.

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A few storms could refire during the afternoon tomorrow.

Watch

Keep your fingers crossed for the rain.  We need it and it will help to cool the air down some too.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Storm Potential: Threats and Timing

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a"Slight Risk" for severe weather for southern Indiana through metro tomorrow. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

There is a "Marginal Risk" that extends farther south. A marginal risk of severe weather is an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

The potential threats will be heavy rain, gusty damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning.

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There is a stall cold front to our north. Said front will pass through the area on Sunday and could fire off a few more showers and storms on Sunday. Not everyone is going to see rain. There is a lot of warm air aloft and that has been preventing storms and could keep a lid on the storm development. 

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Ingredients: 

Wind energy is than impressive all day Sunday. Typically we need 35 kts of  bulk shear in order to have severe storms but models are only showing roughly 25-30 kts.

However,  there is plenty of instability across the area, with all the heat and high dew points in the mid 70s. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy (a measurement of instability) is around 3000-4000 J/kg Saturday night and that is very high! That could support strong to severe storms. 

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TIMING:

Something to note: As I mentioned in the blog yesterday, it has been a common theme this week that the models show more rain in the days leading up to an event than actually materializes.  I am hopeful we get some beneficial rain tomorrow, but I am not promising rain for anyone. It will be hit or miss showers and storms but I am simply not convinced we will see as much activity as some models are predicting at this time.

Take today for example...

The two images below were in the blog I wrote yesterday afternoon (Friday) and show a decent storm chance for tonight....

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AT 8

Compare that to the data from this morning for that same time frame...

The data has completely backed off once again and I have lowered our storm chance for tonight to only 10%.

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And that is not the only issue looking ahead to Sunday. The data is also wavering in regards to when and where storms develop, IF they even occur. 

Below there are two images for each timeframe, for back to back runs of the RPM. And you can see how much the data changed. This makes my confidence low about timing and locations of storms. 

8 am 

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10 am 
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2:30 pm 

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4:30 pm 
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7:30 pm

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Regardless of how much rain we do or do not see, the front will lower our temps and dew points. It will feel like 92 degrees by Tuesday. You know it has hot when 92 looks cool! 

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We will be keeping you posted on the storm chances and updating the forecast. It is subject to change. Be sure to join Jeremy this evening to hear the latest and tomorrow morning with me from 6-9 am. 

If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

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-Katie McGraw 

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07/21/2017

Saturday and Sunday Storms: Severe Potential?

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a"Slight Risk" for severe weather for southern Indiana, in our most northeastern counties for tomorrow night. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

There is a "Marginal Risk" that extends to metro, just north of the river. A marginal risk of severe weather is an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

The potential threats will be heavy rain, gusty damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning.

Image 1

Ingredients: 

Wind energy is than impressive Saturday evening. Typically we need 35 kts of  bulk shear in order to have severe storms but models are only showing 25 kts.

However,  there is plenty of instability across the area, with all the heat and high dew points in the mid 70s. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy (a measurement of instability) is around 2000-4000 J/kg Saturday night and that is very high! That could support strong to severe storms. 

Image 2

Timing: 

It appears most of Saturday is going to be dry. After 7 pm, is when our rain and storm chances increase. There is another heat advisory in effect for tomorrow. Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the 105-110 degree range again. I think tomorrow will be even hotter than today.  

AT 8

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Sunday:

A front will pass through the area on Sunday and will fire off a few more showers and storms on Sunday. Not everyone is going to see rain. There is a lot of warm air aloft and that has been preventing storms and will continue to keep a lid on the storm development. 

AT 8

Something to note: I am not convinced we will see as much rain as Advancetrak is currently predicting. It has been a common theme this week. Models show a lot of rain a few days out and then when it's go time, the models back off and very few showers actually materialize.

We need some beneficial rain, but I am not convinced we will see as much as some models are predicting at this time.

Right now, we are saying a 30% chance of rain for Saturday, and that will be at night. There is a 40% chance for storms on Sunday and that is mainly early, before another 30% chance for scattered storms late Sunday into Monday. 

AT 8

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Most of the afternoon and evening will be dry on Sunday. There is a chance the heat advisory will be extended for some areas in central KY on Sunday. 

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This is not the only chance for storms tomorrow. More storms are possible on later on Sunday night and into Monday as well. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc WDRB for the latest information on that and to find out when we might get some relief from the HEAT! 

If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

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-Katie McGraw 

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Dangerous Heat!

From Jude Redfield...

    Before we discuss the heat, I wanted to mention our afternoon/evening storm threat. A few storms should pop up on a leftover boundary from the morning showers/storms. Brief downpours and strong storms are likely where they initiate. At this time (11:00am) nothing is on the radar so it will be a wait and see kind of game, typical for summer.   

    Morning clouds thin and temps soar this afternoon. Today should be the hottest of the year(so far). So far we've hit 95 this year so with today's projection of 96 it places us at the top of the list. If it's going to be this hot might as well find some water and have some fun.

WKUlunge

    A high temperature of 96 is hot, BUT the dewpoints in the mid 70s combined with this means one thing...DANGER! DANGER! DANGER!

WKUlunge2

    Today and tomorrow are the worst of the bunch. Mini relief is ahead as the cold front approaches early next week.

WKUGraphic

07/20/2017

INSANE VIDEO: Possible Tornado Makes Car Levitate In NY...

Officials in western New York declared a state of emergency after a tornado left behind damage on Thursday. A round of severe storms rolled through leaving more than 20,000 people without power. The NWS went out to survey the damage in Erie county and found evidence of an EF2 tornado with a maximum wind speed of 105 mph! It was on the ground for 5 miles and had a width of 700 yards. Home surveillance video in Hamburg just surfaced that shows a car being tossed into the air. Take a look... 

Video Credit: Storyful Rights Management 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Heat Advisory for Friday afternoon and evening for a large portion of our viewing area and includes metro Louisville. The heat advisory is in effect from noon EDT to 8 PM EDT Saturday

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HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES

Peak heat index values 105 to 108 Friday afternoon and early evening across the viewing area. 
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There is no advisory for Saturday, but I would act as if there is one. This is still dangerous heat, with many spots still seeing heat indices around 105-106 degrees. 

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IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk of heat related stress and illnesses. The very young, the elderly, those without air
conditioning, and those participating in strenuous outdoor activities will be the most susceptible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Take extra precautions...if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

COOL DOWN??

Temperatures will still be stifling on Sunday, but a cold front will be approaching the area and the end is in sight! The cold front will fire off showers and storms on Sunday into Monday. 
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And check out how much better it will feel by Monday and Tuesday! 

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Feeling like the upper 70s and low 80s?! What a difference! 
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Marc and Rick will be tracking out the rain chances for the next few days and how long the comfortable conditions will last for this evening on WDRB News! 

Let's connect! The links to my social media pages are below.

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 -Katie McGraw 

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