04/25/2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely...

 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

Mcd


   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
   SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
   A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
   AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
   LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

   STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
   THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
   CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

   SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
   SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Update: Severe Weather Likely For Some Today...

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their "Slight Risk" for severe weather to include almost all of our viewing area with the exception of our far northeastern counties...

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Based on the latest data, I don't think the threat reaches that far north. The atmosphere will be too cool and far too stable north of the I-64 corridor. There could be a few stronger storms in Louisville with small hail and gusty winds this evening, but they should stay below severe limits. It's places like E-Town, Leitchfield, and Campbellsville that need to be on guard for severe weather later today...

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The main threat down there is the potential for large hail. Severe criteria for hail is 1" in diameter, and the ingredients are there to help it grow even larger. The strongest storms could support hail to the size of golf balls or in a rare case, baseballs! Hail this big can easily damage cars and homes and obviously it is VERY dangerous for people and pets to be outside during such an event. Another concern is the threat for powerful winds that could gust between 50 - 75 mph! As you know, the ground is already saturated and it might only take winds up to 40 mph to knock down trees. Make sure you are prepared just in case the power happens to go out. We could also see tornadoes and with so many outdoor events going on, you need to have a safe place nearby. The final threat is flash flooding. Thunderstorms may have a tendency to hit the same areas over and over again. Please don't attempt to drive across flooded roads. It only takes 2 feet of water to sweep away a car!

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Now that we have discussed the threats, let's take a look at the timing. Aside from an isolated t-shower, the steadier rain from this morning will be coming to an end.  We get a break during the early afternoon, the sun makes an appearance and winds pick up. This will quickly destabilize the atmosphere allowing storms to ignite for SOME. These are the ones that could be strong to severe. The bottom line, be on guard for nasty storms from 5 pm - 10 pm along and south of the parkways...

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Jeremy Kappell will be on WDRB tonight tracking storms and we will be the first to let you know if any watches or warning are issued. Enjoy the weekend!

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

04/24/2015

Severe Weather Risk Saturday: Discussing Timing and Threats...

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and south of I-64 in their "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Saturday...

Blog5

Based on some of the latest data, we feel a higher "Moderate" risk may be necessary in the zone painted red...

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The main threat tomorrow is the potential for large hail. Severe criteria for hail is 1" in diameter, and the ingredients are there to help it grow even larger. The strongest storms could support hail growing to the size of golfballs or in a rare case, baseballs! Hail this big can easily damage cars and homes and obviusly it is VERY dangerous for people and pets to be outside during such an event. Another concern is the threat for powerful winds that could gust between 50 - 75 mph! As you know, the ground is already saturated and it might only take winds up to 40 mph to knock down trees. Make sure you are prepared just in case the power happens to go out. We could also see tornadoes tomorrow and with so many outdoor events going on, you need to have a safe place nearby. The final threat is flash flooding. Thunderstorms may have a tendancy to hit the same areas over and over again. Please don't attempt to drive across flooded roads. It only takes 2 feet of water to sweep away a car or truck! Not that we have discussed the threats, let's take a look at the timing. Rain and maybe a couple rumbles of thunder pass through during the morning hours. We get a break during the early afternoon, the sunshine makes an appearance and winds pick up. This will quickly destabilize the atmosphere allowing storms to ignite for SOME. These are the ones that could be strong to severe. The bottom line, be on guard for nasty storms from 3 pm - 9 pm...

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Marc Weinberg will be on WDRB tonight with updates and we will be the first to let you know if any watches or warning are issued tomorrow.

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather


 

NWS's Latest Assessment For Saturday's "Potential Severe Weather Episode"...

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-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Weather Blog: Severe Storms Are Likely

From Jude Redfield...

    Areas of rain and t-showers will be scattered in our region tomorrow morning. This could impact parts of the marathon. The good news/bad news is a dry slot should form at some point tomorrow allowing ample time to go outside when it isn't raining. The bad news is this allows parts of our region to warm up and destabilize rapidly in the afternoon.

Advancetrak

A few breaks in the clouds are even possible. Louisville metro looks to be right on the line in terms of the warm front and instability. The highest instability will stay closer to the parkways. These locations have the most potential. Areas on the warm front near Louisville metro can still get severe weather even with lower instability so don't completely rule it out.

Advancetrak1

A generic window of 3pm-9pm is the time when storms should get going with the best chance of seeing any severe weather.

Advancetrak2

Right now the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk in place for locations along the Ohio River and all points to the south.

Rutgers

On the map below I have highlighted a region that I think could end up borderline moderate risk tomorrow. This is the zone where the most juice (instability) is available providing the most *POTENTIAL*  I know we have a million outdoor events and even some proms tomorrow so many of us are very interested in this forecast. As of now there isn't any reason to cancel any events since this is all potential. While we have many ingredients needed for severe weather we don't have any storms to track yet as this system is just developing.  Please don't get worked up in a panic if you are in the severe weather risk zone. This is not a storm that will sneak up on us. As long as you are keeping up with our weather department tomorrow we will be able to provide plenty of lead time to the warnings to get people in safe areas. Just have your safe plan ready to be put in play if your location goes under a warning.

Specialgraphic

This system isn't like the last few in terms of our overall flash flood threat (GOOD NEWS). While rain rates of 1"-3" per hour are likely  in some storms, I don't expect something that should last hours and hours like previously this month. The straight-line wind threat is in a moderate range. The risk for larger size hail and tornadoes is a bit higher than what we usually see. The atmospheric conditions are conducive for rotating cells and some golf ball to baseball size hail in any severe storm that forms. One thing that needs to be emphasized is severe weather is usually very local. While large regions have the risk or potential for severe storms, damage is typically only found scattered in local communities/neighborhoods even in high risk outbreak situations. While large hail and a few tornadoes could *POSSIBLY* occur tomorrow it is something that would only hit in a localized fashion.

Blogerror

Our Saturday system comes loaded up with the most severe weather potential we've seen so far in this young severe weather season. I'll say it again..."potential isn't always met in our weather world so please don't let this get you totally freaked out"  At some point tomorrow I'd expect a watch box to be issued for portions of Kentuckiana. This is not a sneak up on us kind of storm so I feel confident we can provide ample warning time to any storm that gets going.  Stay tuned and enjoy the dry times like today -Jude-

04/23/2015

Severe Weather Risk Posted For Saturday...

The Storm Prediction Center has placed many areas south of I-64 in their "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Saturday. Some of the latest data suggests that this zone may have to be moved further north...

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The weekend starts off a bit soggy as showers and perhaps a thunderstorm move in Saturday morning. It doesn't appear to be a complete washout, but rain could complicate the Great Balloon Race and Marathon/Mini...

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Then we get a push of drier air during the early afternoon. The winds pick up from the south, and the sun might even make an appearance for a while. Sounds good, right? Not this time. A warm front will set up shop in our area and it will create a large temperature contrast where winds converge. Adding extra instability into an environment like this will only make a bad situation even worse...

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Thunderstorms are expected to fire along that front during the late afternoon hours and and continue through the evening. It's tough to say EXACTLY where storms blow up, but locations that get hit need to be on guard for damaging winds, large hail, and even the possibility of a torando...
 

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Marc Weinberg will be on WDRB tonight with his full analysis. Stay tuned in the coming days as we fine tune the forecast and go into more detail. Have a nice night!

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

 

 

Freeze Warnings Go Into Effect Tonight! Details Inside...

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ FRIDAY...

Warnings


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ FRIDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
  WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
  FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF FROST WILL
  LIKELY KILL SOME CROPS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

Warnings2

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

Time-lapse Video Of Chile's Calbuco Volcano...

Calbuco volcano has erupted for the first time in more than 42 years! Around 6 p.m. local time on April 22, 2015, the volcano in southern Chile began spewing smoke and ash high into the sky. It is considered one of the top three most potentially dangerous among Chile's 90 active volcanoes. The time-lapse video below will leave you speechless...

 

Video Courtesy: Dario Almonacid

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

Weather Blog: Severe Weather Threat Keeps Rising

From Jude Redfield...

    Clouds increase tomorrow with rain showers developing tomorrow evening. This could be a problem for the Balloon Glow Friday night. Stay tuned for more updates on this. Hopefully the dry air helps eat away the leading edge of rain Friday night. My confidence isn't sky high the dry air wins out however. Again, stay tuned on this.

    Scattered showers/storms are likely Saturday morning before a dry punch of air cuts things off for a little while during the day.  *THIS IS A BAD THING ACTUALLY* If we dry out temps will warm with a CRAZY, WILD, STRONG warm front draped across the region. (LOOK AT THE TEMP MAP BELOW)  Areas that see sun break through will see the instability soar through the roof.

Windchill comparison

Blogerror

Future radar images indicate storms firing up early to mid afternoon. These will seek out the warmth and deep moisture moving from the NW to the SE along the warm front. These situations often lead to multiple severe storms. The severe risk continues to climb for half of Kentuckiana Saturday afternoon/early evening.

Advancetrak

TodaysNumbers

LARGE, DESTRUCTIVE hail could easily occur in any severe storm. We will in the quadrant of this storm that brings atmospheric spin. If the storms develop, a few could rotate prompting tornado warnings.

Mesonet

As it stands right now, severe storms are likely for the southern 1/3rd of Kentuckiana near the parkways give or take a bit. The areas in question line up in southern Indiana through Louisville metro. I do feel the areas in question could EASILY end up with severe weather. This absolutely bears watching if you have any plans to be outside Saturday afternoon/evening. A situation like this often prompts severe t-storm or tornado watch boxes in the unstable zones. It's a pick your poison kind of deal because the best case scenario would be an all day rain out limiting the warming which limits the instability. If this happens then we stay inside all day. If we get the clearing trend then odds favor areas of severe storms.  -Jude Redfield-

04/22/2015

The NWS Expands Frost Advisory Into The Metro! The Locations That Need To Prepare For Frost Inside...

The NWS decided late this afternoon to extend the frost advisory well south into our area. This does now include the Louisville metro area. With frost likely in a good chunk of the area, please make plans to protect any of your plants that could be sensitive to a frost.

 

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY...

 

AdvanceTrak 3




...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

* TIMING...FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 3AM AND 8 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND COLD TEMPERATURES MAY IMPACT BUSINESSES THAT HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR FLOWER STANDS AND GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

  AdvanceTrak 4

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather