06/25/2017

Survey Summary: Evidence of Two Tornadoes Found After Friday's Storms

Friday afternoon and evening was very active with several severe thunderstorm warnings, tornado warnings, and flash flood warnings. There was a tropical airmass in the area thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy coming in from the southwest coupled with a cold front dropping in from the northwest. This caused of to cause widespread heavy rain and wind shear in the low levels of the atmosphere near Cindy's circulation led to tornado development in central Kentucky. There was minimal lightning and no reports of hail. This blog will only highlight the two tornadoes. 

1. LaRue County, KY Tornado 

Start Time: 5:37 PM EDT
Start Location: 2.8 miles south of Hodgenville, KY
Start Lat/Lon: 37.5286, -85.7440


End Time: 5:45 PM EDT
End Location: 5 miles east of Hodgenville, KY
End Lat/Lon: 37.5723, -85.6687

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Date June 23, 2017
Time (Local) 5:37 - 5:45 PM EDT
EF Rating EF 1
Est. Peak Winds 90 mph
Path Length 5.1 miles
Max Width 75 yards
Injuries/Deaths 0/0

Summary: The tornado first downed a large tree on McDowell Rd 2.8 miles south of Hodgenville. It damaged tree tops at the Lincoln Birthplace National Historical Park as it moved northeast. At the end of Earl Jones Road, the tornado destroyed one cinder block and wood barn and damaged the roof of another, scattering debris several hundred yards. The tornado then skipped intermittently over primarily open farmland for several miles before uprooting and snapping several trees along Leafdale Road west of Highway 470.

Survey Summary:

The tornado first downed a large tree in front of a vacant farm  house on McDowell Rd 2.8 miles south of Hodgenville. It damaged  tree tops at the Lincoln Birthplace National Historical Park as it  moved northeast, then downed several more trees in a wooded area  along Earl Jones Rd. At the end of Earl Jones Rd, the tornado destroyed one cinder block and wood barn and damaged the roof of another, scattering debris several hundred yards to the north and northeast. It also snapped and uprooted numerous trees in the area, some which fell on a home and vehicle.

The tornado then skipped intermittently over primarily open farmland for several miles before uprooting and snapping several trees along Leafdale Road west of highway 470. In addition to the cyclonic damage pattern in the tree damage here, the tornado destroyed a small outbuilding just prior to lifting.

Most of the damage caused by the tornado was EF-0 intensity, but low-end EF-1 damage was observed on both Earl Jones Rd and on Leafdale Rd.

Viewer photo from Kim Pepper:

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Photo from NWS:

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2. Marion County, KY Tornado..


Start Location: 0.4 miles SW St. Francis, KY
Start Lat/Lon: 37.6174, -85.4359


End Time: 6:07 PM EDT
End Location: 1.5 miles S Loretto, KY
End Lat/Lon: 37.6161, -85.4004

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Date June 23, 2017
Time (Local) 6:05 - 6:07 PM EDT
EF Rating EF 1
Est. Peak Winds 90 mph
Path Length 1.6 miles
Max Width 75 yards
Injuries/Deaths 0/0

Summary: This short-lived tornado spun up in a broader area of 40-60 mph winds that caused minor tree damage across an area over a mile wide in western Marion County. The tornado touched down on the edge of a large wooded area west of Highway 527 0.4 miles south of St Francis. Moving due east, it snapped the trunks of several large trees, blocking the highway, and mowed down a line of trees along Louis Mattingly Road. After lifting near a bend in that road, it touched down again near hog barns on the south end of A Mills Road, damaging several outbuildings. Drone footage of corn near the barns showed multiple streaks of intense winds in an area approximately 75 yards in width. Continuing to the east, the tornado flattened a tobacco barn off Spencer Hamilton Road south of Loretto before lifting.

Survey Summary:

This short-lived tornado spun up in a broader area of 40-60 mph winds that caused minor tree damage across an area over a mile wide in western Marion County. The tornado touched down on the edge of a large wooded area west of Highway 527 0.4 miles south of St. Francis. Moving due east, it snapped the trunks of several large
trees, blocking the highway, and mowed down a line of trees along Louis Mattingly Road. After lifting near a bend in that road, it touched down again near hog barns on the south end of A Mills Road, damaging several outbuildings. Drone footage of corn near the barns showed multiple streaks of intense winds in an area approximately 75
yards in width. Continuing to the east, the tornado flattened a tobacco barn off Spencer Hamilton Road south of Loretta before lifting.

Viewer Photo from Ashley Riggs:

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NWS Photo:

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These were both considered weak tornadoes on the The Enhanced Fujita Scale. This classifies tornadoes into the following categories:

EF0...Weak.....65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak.....86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong...111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong...136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent..166 to 200 MPH
EF5...Violent..>200 MPH

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-Katie McGraw 

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06/24/2017

50s and 40s in June??

Goodbye Cindy! Much quieter conditions for the rest of the weekend... but much cooler too! Cindy cleared out of our area pretty quickly thanks to a cold front scooting it along. 

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That has dropped our temperatures by about ten degrees in the past 24 hours and our dew points as well. It will be significantly more comfortable today in comparison to yesterday's sticky jungle like air. 

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But with cold fronts, it typically is coldest the days following the passage of the front, not the day immediately following. Therefore, even though we have already lost several degrees, it is only going to get cooler as high pressure moves into the area and clears our skies. We will have variably cloudy skies today, with a few clouds during the afternoon and evening. But by tonight, it will get clear and cool... for June. 

Notice that average temps for today are in the mid 80s (we will be in the low 80s) and lows in the upper 60s (we will be in the upper 50s)! 

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We will continue to see lows in the 50s for the next several days with highs in the upper 70s. The coolest night/morning looks to be on Tuesday Morning. Most of Kentuckiana will be in the low 50s and some low lying areas may fall into the upper FORTIES! 

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We will be close, but probably miss some the record lows in Louisville. For the curious bunch these are the current record lows to beat in the coming days. 


June 26th: 52 degrees 
June 27th: 52 degrees 
June 28th: 53 degrees

When do we warm up?! Find out this evening on WDRB News! Let's connect on social media! The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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06/23/2017

Heaviest Rain Still To Come for Evening Rush

The remnants of Cindy is slowly making its way toward our area. The weakening depression will pass across Central KY this afternoon. It is coupled with a surface cold front from our west. 

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The combination will lead to the possibility of locally heavy rain and flooding. The NWS in Louisville has issued a Flash Flood Watch and is in effect until tomorrow morning. There are two different time frames for sections of our viewing area. For Southern IN, Jackson, Jennings, Lawrence, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott, Washington Counties, the watch is in effect from this morning since 2 am until Saturday at 2 am. 

Every county in our viewing area in KY, the watch is in effect from 8 am this morning until 11 am Saturday morning. 

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Not only do we have the chance to see rain, we could also see strong to severe storms. There is a "Slight Risk" for severe weather posted for the south eastern half of our area. There could be some strong gusty winds and an isolated spin up or tornado. The best chance for this will be this afternoon and evening. 

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TIMING:

The Final Strongest WAVE! 

We have already seen two rounds and this third and final wave of rainfall is sinking south as I type and will continue to become more widespread through the early evening. It will hit central and southern KY the hardest. This is from the remains OF Tropical Depression Cindy as it travels across southern Kentucky. 

Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get an idea of the timing of the heaviest rain and when things become more scattered. 

  At 1

Notice the heaviest rain will be late this afternoon and early evening, right around the evening rush. Keep in mind it could be a slow go. 

At 2

At 3

At 4

By tonight, showers will be more spotty and finally begin to taper off. 

At 5

Rain will end overnight into Saturday and cooler high pressure will build into the region.  

At 6

RAINFALL TOTALS: 

So far, we have seen the most rain in our NW counties in the last 12 hours. Particularly in Orange County. In NE Counties, there has been about .5'' an inch and everything south has been about the same. 

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However, we could see an additional .5 - 2 inches. But there could be locally higher amounts. This much rain can lead to the filling of area creeks and may cause a few rivers to rise to near flood levels. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized street flooding. 

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We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and myself bright and early from 6-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Flash Flood Watch & Severe Weather Update

From Jude Redfield...

    Another soaking rain for many develops later today in spots that haven't seen a drop this morning. Hurry up and get those errands finished as bursts of rain take shape this afternoon. While localized heavy rain is likely, I still do NOT anticipate a widespread flood threat. Rain amounts of .50" - 2" are likely through this evening (locally higher amounts possible).  Since the rain is expected to wind down around sunset (give or take) I have a feeling the flash flood watch will be allowed to expire right when the rain ends. Something to monitor this afternoon/early evening will be the slight risk for severe storms. Enough daytime heating occurs across Kentucky to help aid the t-storm potential. The aspect of greatest concern would be with the chance at finding a couple rotating storms as the remnants of Cindy interact with the arriving cold front.

Rainamounts

    IF we have any severe weather the most likely location would be in Kentucky or Tennessee. Stay tuned with Katie and Rick this afternoon.

Colin jost

    Future radar images below show the good and bad with this system. The bad...when it rains it will pour! The afternoon commute will be sloppy in many locations. Now to the good...This system is moving fast! We begin to dry out close to sunset setting the stage for a dry weekend.

TempPlunge

Temps

WKUlunge

    High pressure connected to true Canadian air hits this weekend and the first few days of the week.

WKUGraphic

WKUlunge2

    Valley locations and the typical cool spots will dip into the upper 40s Monday and Tuesday morning. Is it really almost July?!?! Have a great weekend! -Jude Redfield-

06/22/2017

Updates to Heavy Rain Potential for Today and Friday

The NWS in Louisville has issued a Flash Flood Watch  as tropical, moist air from the Gulf makes its way into our neck of the woods thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm (Now downgraded to a depression) Cindy, coupled with a surface feature from our west. This will bring rounds of rain to our area over the next few days. 

Image 1

Almost every computer model shows the same track for Cindy. It will slowly makes it way toward our area, bringing waves of rain. The weakening depression will pass across Central KY on Friday. 

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TIMING:

WAVE 1 

Rain has been increasing from south to north this afternoon and will continue to become more widespread through evening. At times the rain could be heavy.  Some areas could see an inch of rain today. 

At 1

But eventually, late tonight, it will start to become more scattered. And we could see periods of dry weather too through this evening and overnight...

At 2

WAVE 2 

But then a second wave of heavy rain will develop into Friday morning, with the focus at this time expected somewhere along and north of the Ohio River in Southern IN to metro Louisville. 

At 3

At 4

WAVE 3

The third wave of rainfall will arrive Friday afternoon through Friday night and will hit central and southern KY the hardest. This is from the remains Tropical Storm (now Tropical Depression) Cindy as it travels across southern Kentucky Friday night. There is a "Slight Risk" for severe weather posted for the south eastern half of our area. There could be some strong gusty winds and an isolated spin up or tornado. The best chance for this will be Friday afternoon and evening. 

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At 5

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By Friday night, showers will be more spotty and finally begin to taper off. 

At 7

Rain will end overnight into Saturday and cooler high pressure will build into the region.  

At 8

RAINFALL TOTALS: 

Overall rainfall totals from today through Saturday, look to range from .5 - 2 inches. But some could see up to 4 and 5 inches of rain. The lowest amounts are expected to be in S IN and the highest will be in S/Central KY. This much rain can lead to the filling of area creeks and may cause a few rivers to rise to near flood levels. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized street flooding. 

Image 3

We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Summary of NWS Conference Call

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather for the next two days. 

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH Issued

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for nearly all of our viewing area, including Louisville from tomorrow morning until Saturday morning. The combination of Tropical Storm Cindy's remnants and an incoming cold front will lead to the possibility of locally heavy  rain and flooding.

There are two different time frames for sections of our viewing area. For Southern IN, Jackson, Jennings, Lawrence, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott, Washington Counties, the watch is in effect from Friday morning at 2 am until Saturday at 2 am. 

Every county in our viewing area in KY, the watch starts a bit later. It is in effect from 8 am Friday morning until 11 am Saturday morning. 

See an image of the counties included below as well as detailed information from the NWS. 

Image 1

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for southern Indiana.

* From late tonight through Friday night

* A cold front coming in from the northwest will join forces with
the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to produce widespread rain,
possibly heavy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Heavy Rain Is Getting Close

From Jude Redfield...

    Rain develops today. Most areas will be wet at some point this afternoon and evening. Average rain amounts with this first shot of rain look to range between a .25" and .50". This proves to drop beneficial rain in the area.  Waves of rain and storms hit at times on Friday. Locally heavy rain will occur at times. A few spotty storms could POSSIBLY reach severe limits.

Rainamounts

    Today's future radar images are shown below

TempPlunge

Temps

    The remnants of Cindy join forces with an approaching cold front to enhance the rain rates tomorrow.

WKUGraphic

    A narrow band of heavy rain develops in southern Indiana during the morning and early afternoon tomorrow. This forms in advance of the cold front. As Cindy influences the cold front later in the afternoon heavy rain forms in Kentucky.

WKUlunge2

    Widespread rain amounts through tomorrow night tally up between .50" - 2" for most locations. Locally higher amounts will occur. The best chance for amounts in excess of 2" hit Kentucky. Some flash flooding is possible. 

    The map below indicates where a few severe storms are possible tomorrow. I've highlighted an area in red where the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk issued.  If enough daytime instability can form then a few severe storms could occur in the region. At this point it is nothing more than a situation to monitor.

Colin jost

    The weekend looks great! The cold front moves south Friday night allowing drier air in along with pleasant temps near 80 each afternoon this weekend. -Jude Redfield-

 

06/21/2017

Waves of Heavy Rain: Timing and Totals

The NWS in Louisville has only issued a Hydrologic Outlook, but a Flash Flood Watch may issued in the hours to come as tropical, moist air from the Gulf makes its way into our neck of the woods by tomorrow, thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy and coupled with a surface feature from our west. This will bring rounds of rain to our area over the next few days. 

Image 1
Almost every computer model shows the same track for Cindy. It will become a depression by Thursday and slowly makes it way toward our area bringing waves of rain. The weakening depression will pass across Central KY on Friday. 

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TIMING:

We will start off Thursday dry, with increasing clouds. 

At 1

WAVE 1 

Rain chances will increase from south to north on Thursday afternoon and evening. The stronger storms Thursday easily could bring about an inch of rainfall.

At 2

Rain will become widespread with time and at times will be heavy. 

At 3

But eventually, start to become more scattered. And we could see periods of dry weather too through Thursday evening and overnight... 

At 4

WAVE 2 

But then a second wave of heavy rain will develop into Friday, with the focus at this time expected somewhere along and north of the Ohio River. 

At 6

At 7

WAVE 3

The third wave of rainfall will come close to the low pressure remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy as they travel across southern Kentucky Friday night. 

At 8

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RAINFALL TOTALS: 

Overall rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday look to range from 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts. This much rain can lead to the filling of area creeks and may cause a few rivers to rise to near flood levels. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized street flooding.

Image 3

Image 4 

We be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Heavy Rain Potential & Big Weekend Forecast Adjustment

From Jude Redfield...

    Tropical moisture is on the move north. Scattered showers and storms break out with thick clouds rolling in tomorrow. It does not look like an all day rain tomorrow, but locally heavy rain will occur from the afternoon through the night. The rain/storm chance tomorrow is 50%. The rain chance on Friday heads to 90%.  This is a 90% chance that at some point it will rain in Kentuckiana. Locally heavy rain will happen as these waves move through.

    This graphic below shows all computer models agreeing on a close enough path to deliver rain to much of our region.

Colin jost

TempPlunge

WKUGraphic

WKUlunge2

    When all is said and done by Saturday morning I expect rain amounts to tally up between 1" - 2"( especially in Kentucky). Locally higher amounts are likely!!!  The track of the tropical system should stay to our south keeping the highest rain totals in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Temps

    Get a load of the weekend forecast that has now changed quite a bit. The cold front moves through Friday night sweeping the rain to our south on Saturday. Saturday looks to be dry, dry, dry. I'm hoping this trend continues because it will make most of us very happy! -Jude Redfield-