From Jude Redfield...
Areas of rain and t-showers will be scattered in our region tomorrow morning. This could impact parts of the marathon. The good news/bad news is a dry slot should form at some point tomorrow allowing ample time to go outside when it isn't raining. The bad news is this allows parts of our region to warm up and destabilize rapidly in the afternoon.
A few breaks in the clouds are even possible. Louisville metro looks to be right on the line in terms of the warm front and instability. The highest instability will stay closer to the parkways. These locations have the most potential. Areas on the warm front near Louisville metro can still get severe weather even with lower instability so don't completely rule it out.
A generic window of 3pm-9pm is the time when storms should get going with the best chance of seeing any severe weather.
Right now the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk in place for locations along the Ohio River and all points to the south.
On the map below I have highlighted a region that I think could end up borderline moderate risk tomorrow. This is the zone where the most juice (instability) is available providing the most *POTENTIAL* I know we have a million outdoor events and even some proms tomorrow so many of us are very interested in this forecast. As of now there isn't any reason to cancel any events since this is all potential. While we have many ingredients needed for severe weather we don't have any storms to track yet as this system is just developing. Please don't get worked up in a panic if you are in the severe weather risk zone. This is not a storm that will sneak up on us. As long as you are keeping up with our weather department tomorrow we will be able to provide plenty of lead time to the warnings to get people in safe areas. Just have your safe plan ready to be put in play if your location goes under a warning.
This system isn't like the last few in terms of our overall flash flood threat (GOOD NEWS). While rain rates of 1"-3" per hour are likely in some storms, I don't expect something that should last hours and hours like previously this month. The straight-line wind threat is in a moderate range. The risk for larger size hail and tornadoes is a bit higher than what we usually see. The atmospheric conditions are conducive for rotating cells and some golf ball to baseball size hail in any severe storm that forms. One thing that needs to be emphasized is severe weather is usually very local. While large regions have the risk or potential for severe storms, damage is typically only found scattered in local communities/neighborhoods even in high risk outbreak situations. While large hail and a few tornadoes could *POSSIBLY* occur tomorrow it is something that would only hit in a localized fashion.
Our Saturday system comes loaded up with the most severe weather potential we've seen so far in this young severe weather season. I'll say it again..."potential isn't always met in our weather world so please don't let this get you totally freaked out" At some point tomorrow I'd expect a watch box to be issued for portions of Kentuckiana. This is not a sneak up on us kind of storm so I feel confident we can provide ample warning time to any storm that gets going. Stay tuned and enjoy the dry times like today -Jude-