05/25/2015

Severe Storm Risk Posted For Tuesday! My Full Analysis Of The Threat Inside...

A lot of rain has affected our Memorial Day holiday and it looks like you will be greeted with more storms as you head back to work tomorrow. The story for Tuesday will be the severe risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center and in tonight's blog, I will give you a timeline for the storms and analyze the risk

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Tuesday

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for two days has had our area in the slight risk for severe weather. They have made some brief adjustments to the risk, but it still does include the Louisville metro area. Here is the latest.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice all but our extreme western counties are in the severe risk for Tuesday.

 

Spc 2 cat

 

Severe Risk 1

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice SPC has a 15% of severe weather for slight risk area with a 5% chance for our far western counties.

 

Spc 2 prob

 

 

My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk On Tuesday

 

To get organized severe weather, we traditionally need specific ingredients present. Since we haven't discussed severe weather in little while, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Forcing

The forcing Tuesday will come from a low bringing severe weather over Texas right now. That storm will arrive here early to mid afternoon on Tuesday. It is not terribly strong, so it won't have the ability to overpower other weaknesses in the severe weather fields.

 

Gfs_500_1

 

 

Wind Energy

The atmosphere has general rules it must meet to be able to support organized severe weather and wind energy is a distinct part of that equation. For the atmosphere to support organized severe weather, we traditionally need 35 knots / 40 mph winds somewhere from the surface to 6 miles above the surface. Without that wind, the storms will be pulse type and never develop a long lived core necessary to produce organized severe weather. On Tuesday, they barely (and I mean barely) meet severe thresholds. As we look at the sounding, notice the wind energy (in knots) on the right side of the graph

 

Atmosphere Sounding Tuesday

Notice the wind energy is not strong, but one could argue it barely meets criteria to support organized severe weather.

 

Sounding 1

 


The wind energy is not strong in any way, shape, or form, but it still does barely meet our minimum to support organized severe weather.

 

 

Instability

The instability is going to be complicated. While I know some are telling you that moderate instability is a lock on Tuesday, the computer model data would argue that is not the case. The NAM, which is the more reliable convective (t-storm) computer model, shows only about 750 units of instability on Tuesday. 750 units of instability is weak at best.

 

NAM CAPE 1

 

The GFS is showing more instability, but it also doesn't generate the storms until later in the day.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

So which model do we believe? The NAM will deal with the speed of the severe storms in Texas better and results in rain breaking out much earlier in the day. The GFS computer model simply doesn't have the skill with small scale meteorology to deal with those storms and therefore it's instability is highly unreliable in my opinion.

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Tuesday

 

I feel like Tuesday is being sold a bit as something it is not. The data shows wind energy that barely meets criteria for organized severe weather, but I do want to be clear it is enough. The forcing is decent and should arrive early afternoon bringing a lot of clouds and storms. Since these storms arrive early, it means the atmosphere will never have the chance to heat up limiting instability to the weak category in my opinion. A lot of "marginal ingredients" normally does not equate to large organized severe weather threats. I think there is a lot of evidence to say this won't be anything close to a severe weather event.

 

AdvanceTrak shows the storms generating early in the day limiting the heating and never generates a second line for our area. It shows a limited severe weather threat.

 

AdvanceTrak 1

 

AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

AdvanceTrak 5

 

AdvanceTrak 6

 

AdvanceTrak 7

 

The bottom line is I cannot rule out a couple of severe storms on Tuesday. The storms should pop early afternoon and continue through early evening. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat. At the same time, I do not see any evidence of a larger scale severe weather event. 

 

 

Remember it is Spring storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

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Weather Blog: Memorial Day Washout

From Jude Redfield...

    The only time we might salvage from the good chances for rain look to arrive late this afternoon into the evening. Thick clouds and damp conditions prevail today. A few sun breaks are possible closer to dinner time and sunset as this system pulls east.

Our high temp will only manage a range between 75-80 today. A far cry from yesterday's upper 80s. At least I still see signs of promise that our rain chance lowers to 30% between 4pm-7pm. Hopefully this holds and we can manage a decent finish for some grilling.  The radar images below show whats happening now and what is headed our way.

Advancetrak

Advancetrak1

05/24/2015

So Far So Good. Can We Keep It Going for Memorial Day?

So far so good on this Memorial Weekend.  After reaching 80 for a high with sunshine yesterday, the mercury reached 86 this afternoon in Louisville with more fair skies.  

Almanac

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we'll be able to keep that up much longer.  

A large, slow moving upper level storm system continues to approach from the west and is currently bringing shower and thunderstorm activity to much of the Mississippi River Valley.

Rad

This system shifts further east tomorrow bringing with it scattered showers and storms for your Memorial Day.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT is currently advertising a round of showers in the morning for areas west of 65.  

At1

 This activity fizzles out with cloudy conditions during the morning hours.

At2

 By afternoon, scattered showers and storms redevelop.  

At3

 Activity quickly diminishes during the evening hours.

At4

Overall, although it certainly won't be a bright as this weekend, Memorial Day doesn't look bad with mainly dry and warm conditions.  The highest chance of rain looks to occur during the afternoon hours with the heating of the day.  

Fcst gfx

 We'll see a better storm chance arriving on Tuesday and with that a risk for strong thunderstorms.

Spc

 Jude will have a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Memorial Day Storm Chances And Tuesday's Severe Risk...

It looks like we get another nice day with more sunshine and warmer temperatures. There might be a random downpour in our far western counties later this afternoon/evening, but the rain chance is so low that it's hardly worth mentioning. Check future radar at 7:30 PM...

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A line of storms approach us from the west overnight, weakening as they run out of steam. They do reignite with the heat of the day, producing scattered showers and storms. The best chance occurs during the afternoon hours. Not everyone will see the rain on Memorial Day, but those who do should expect lightning and downpours...

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Our active pattern continues Tuesday as another piece of energy sparks rain & storms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of our area under the "slight risk" for severe weather. Hail and high winds are the primary threats. There is just enough instability and wind to support some stronger storms, but I don't think organized/widespread severe weather is in the cards the way things look right now... 

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Jeremy Kappell will be in tonight with the very latest on our storm chance and severe threat. Enjoy the rest of your Memorial Day Weekend!

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

05/23/2015

Humidity Increases as does Holiday Storm Chances...

Thanks to high pressure aloft, it turned out to be a great start to the Holiday Weekend!  Our high touched 80° this afternoon with lots of sunshine and low humidity.  

That wasn't the case today across the Plains once again stricken with severe weather and very heavy rainfall.  

Satrad

The storm system responsible for the persistent stormy weather across the Central US will slowly slide in our direction over the next few days helping to increase the threat of rain here locally by Memorial Day.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT shows a fair and mild start to your Sunday with morning temps starting out in the upper 50's and low 60's.

At1

While a few renegade showers can't be ruled out across far Western Kentucky, Kentuckiana looks to remain dry on Sunday with warmer and slightly more humid conditions as highs reach into the middle 80's with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

At2

Moisture continues to increase as we head into Memorial Day with a few isolated showers possible in the morning. 

At3

While the bulk of the area should remain dry during the morning hours, AT shows scattered storms promptly developing as we head into the afternoon as high humidity returns to the area.

At4

Although a washout is not expected, some pockets of heavy rain and thunder will be possible through the afternoon hours.

At5

If you have travel plans on Monday, heaviest rainfall looks to remain to our west across the Mississippi River Valley.  

Dma rain chances

Rick will be in with a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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NEW Guinness World Record: Farthest Flight By Hoverboard...

Catalina Alexandru Duru just pulled off the farthest flight ever traveled on a hoverboard! He created the prototype himself, which sort of works like a super powerful quadcopter. The old record of 164 feet was shattered by Catalina who cruised 905 feet and 2 inches over a lake in Quebec, Canada! Check it out...

 

Video Courtesy: Guinness World Records

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

05/22/2015

Saturn At Opposition: See the Stunning Ringed Planet and Its Moons...

Saturn reaches opposition on Friday (May 22) at 10 p.m. EDT. This means that the ringed planet will be directly opposite the sun in our sky. It rises at sunset in the southeast and sets at dawn in the northwest. This year, the majestic rings are open-which means they're tilted towards Earth-more than 24 degrees, compared to the edgewise view we had in 2009. Through a telescope, you maybe able to see color differences and faint bands the color of cream and butterscotch...

Saturn_Equinox1

Image Courtesy: NASA

Are you hoping to spot Saturn? It’s near an arc of three starsclose to Antares in the night sky. Antares is a reddish color and the brightest star in the constellation Scorpius the Scorpion. If you don't get a chance to see it tonight, don't worry. Saturn’s opposition guarantees the ringed planet will be in good view throughout May and June 2015. Binoculars will allow you to see Saturn, but it will probably just look like a bright star. It takes a telescope to see Saturn's true shape, and higher magnifications will allow you to see the details and its ring system.

 

Video Courtesy: Eric Fischer

 

10 Need-to-Know Things About Saturn:

1.) If the sun were as tall as a typical front door, the Earth would be the size of a nickel and Saturn would be about as big as a basketball.

2.) Saturn orbits our sun, a star. Saturn is the sixth planet from the sun at a distance of about 1.4 billion km (886 million miles) or 9.5 AU.

3.) One day on Saturn takes 10.7 hours (the time it takes for Saturn to rotate or spin once). Saturn makes a complete orbit around the sun (a year in Saturnian time) in 29 Earth years.

4.) Saturn is a gas-giant planet and does not have a solid surface.

5.) Saturn's atmosphere is made up mostly of hydrogen (H2) and helium (He).

6.) Saturn has 53 known moons with an additional 9 moons awaiting confirmation of their discovery.

7.) Saturn has the most spectacular ring system of all our solar system's planets. It is made up of seven rings with several gaps and divisions between them.

8.) Five missions have been sent to Saturn. Since 2004, Cassini has been exploring Saturn, its moons and rings.

9.) Saturn cannot support life as we know it. However, some of Saturn's moons have conditions that might support life.

10.) When Galileo Galilei looked at Saturn through a telescope in the 1600s, he noticed strange objects on each side of the planet and drew in his notes a triple-bodied planet system and then later a planet with arms or handles. The handles turned out to be the rings of Saturn.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

 

 

Holiday Weekend Forecast Update

From Jude Redfield...

    Sunshine all day today with a few clouds increasing tonight. Tonight will be AMAZING if you have plans on camping.  A few of the clouds could be thick enough tomorrow morning that some locations end up mostly cloudy. I still see plenty of signs that dry air will erode most of the clouds for a bright and sunny afternoon on our Saturday. Our Sunday rain chance looks a bit lower than the previous forecasts. The warm front arriving Sunday only provides a 20% chance for a storm, but does provide plenty of warmth with highs near 85.

Windchill comparison

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Advancetrak1

Advancetrak2

The rain/storm chance on Memorial day will be the highest in the afternoon and evening (50%) when the peak heating and humidity is achieved. Nothing suggests an all day rain out at this time.

Advancetrak

The worst part of the holiday outlook will be the cold pool water. The recent chilly weather has really cooled the water. All things considered this is a pretty good stretch of weather at such an important time of the year as summer unofficially gets kicked off. Have a safe and great time this weekend -Jude-

05/21/2015

Video Of The Day: Tree Climbing Goats...

I am sure that you have seen goats climb rocky, mountainous terrain, but have you ever seen them in trees! If you are wondering why they are up there, well it all has to do with food. Found in the Sous valley of southwestern Morocco and to the Algerian region of Tindouf in the western Mediterranean region, the Argan tree grows to 8–10 metres high and live up to 150–200 years. They are thorny, with gnarled trunks but that doesn't stop the Tamri goats from eating it's pulpy fruit...
 
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Image Credit: Wiki

Argan fruit falls in July, when black and dry. Until this happens, goats are kept out of the argan woodlands by wardens to stop them from eating it all. Rights to collect the fruit are controlled by law and village traditions. The secret to their ability to climb lies in the shape of their hooves. They are able to grip the tree branches with their soft, textured hooves. Watch them in action in the video below...

 
Video Courtesy: onelove1970
 

05/20/2015

VIDEO: Deadly 2013 Moore Oklahoma Tornado

Perhaps no town in America has been hit harder by tornadoes in recent years than Moore Oklahoma.

On May 20, 2013 the town was struck for the 2nd time in 15 years by an rare F5/EF5 tornado when a massive twister ripped right through the middle of the Oklahoma City suburb.

20130520_Moore_TORNADO

Originally rated an EF4, it was later upgraded to EF5 status with winds over 200 mph.  (Learn about the 1999 Moore F-5 here)

This video captured by Chance Coldiron and Justin Cox shows just how fast the storm developed as it rapidly grew from a needle nosed funnel cloud to a massive wedge tornado in just minutes.  

 

Here's a look at the color enhanced infrared satellite image at the time of the event.  The Moore tornado with the approximated location of the tornado marked.

130520_1936z_modis_goes_ir_anim

This is what radar looked like at the time with reflectivity on the left showing the pronounced "hook echo" and "debri ball".  

On the right is the velocity signature showing an incredible 210 mph estimated winds near the center of the circulation!

3D1

In the video below, storm chasers David Demko and Heidi Farrar documented the disastrous d. With tremendous amounts of debris falling around them, they at one point were only one half mile away from the most intense EF-5 strength core tornadic winds, filmed from near the intersection of South Pennsylvania Ave and SW 164th St.

 

This short video courtesy Basehunters shows the mammoth twister at near peak intensity.

 

Here's KFOR's (Oklahoma City's NBC Affiliate) coverage of the event with Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan.  

 

The storm was on the ground for a total 39 minutes while traveling 17 miles through the heart of the city. The storm was a staggering 1.3 miles wide leveling entire city neighborhoods.

Moore ok 2013Aerial photo of a section of Moore struck by the massive tornado on May 20, 2013.  Photo credit: AP Photo/Steve Gooch 

Among the homes destroyed was that of Matt Malone, Marc Weinberg's brother, in the Briarwood Neighborhood. (House pictured below).  

Matt

Fortunately for Matt and his family, they survived the storm without injury.  Unfortunately their house was totalled.   

In total, the storm caused close to $2 Billion in damage while tragically taking 25 lives including 7 children at Plaza Towers Elementary.  377 others were injured.

The Moore Storm was a part of a sequence of twisters that occurred across the Plains between May 18-21, 2013. 

Of the 61 tornadoes that occurred, the Moore Tornado was the most powerful and deadly.

After a one year hiatus in tornado activity, earlier this spring on March 25th, unbelievably, Moore was hit by another twister, thankfully only an EF1 this time, making it the 5th tornado the town has seen in the last 5 years.  

According to records, at least 157 tornadoes have occurred in the Oklahoma City area (Moore is a suburb of Oklahoma's largest city) since 1890.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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