01/19/2017

JANUARY THAW: Are We Done With Winter?

The January thaw continued today making it our 10th straight day above 32 degrees! We are going to come crazy close to either tying or breaking the old record of 16 days set back in 1880...

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What's next? The Climate Prediction Center released their 8 - 14 day outlook that takes us through the rest of the month! A quick glance a the map suggests a 40% chance of below average temperatures for our area...

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Instead of simply taking their word for it, let's investigate by looking at the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 2-m temperature anomaly maps. As we get closer to the 27th, signs begin to point at temperatures heading back down to reality. This would mean highs in the 40's...  

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By the end of the month, the cold air begins to tighten it's grip on us. Notice the overwhelming signal of below average readings... 

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Overall, it seems the CPC forecast of below average temperatures by the end of January should hold true. When it comes to temperatures, winter isn't over. Marc and I will be on WDRB tonight timing out more rain chances into the weekend. 

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Widespread Rain Headed Our Way!

A system to our south is ushering a few scattered showers and they will become more numerous and more widespread with time today. Eventually there will be a 100% chance for showers. This means we are confident everyone will see rain this evening and tonight. This system will also bring another surge of warm area to Kentuckiana by tomorrow. 

1-19 surf map

We have a few light and scattered showers around right now, but the main batch of widespread showers will be arriving late this afternoon and evening from our SW and spread out to the NE. 

1-19 AT 4 PM

At times there could be moderate to heavy rain and we can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm. The evening commute could be a bit hectic from the rain moving into the metro area at that time. 

1-19 AT 6 PM

The entire area will be covered with green on our radar by 9-10 pm and we will have widespread rain for the rest of the night. If you have evening plans, you DO NOT want to forget the umbrella. 

1-19 AT 930 PM

Showers will start to move out of the viewing area, but it will still be soggy north and along the river. 

1-19 AT 2 A M

By the morning rush, there will only a few scattered showers remaining. 

1-19 AT 630 A M

Besides early morning showers, the rest of tomorrow will just be cloudy with warm temperatures back in the mid 60s! 

1-19 AT FRIDAY 6 30 PM

We could see anywhere from an inch to an inch and a half in some locations. Raw model data from the GFS, EURO and NAM are below. The NAM shows the highest amounts, specifically to the south.

1-19 RAIN TOTALS GFS AND EURO

1-19 RAIN TOTALS NAM

There is going to be more active weather this weekend. For now, the severe weather threat looks to stay to the south. Hear Marc and Rick's thoughts about this system tonight on WDRB News! 

1-19 severe weather saturday

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Rain Train Is Coming...All Aboard

From Jude Redfield...

    Showers multiply this afternoon and end up hitting at a 100% chance tonight. Follow radar images below to see how everything evolves. A few isolated storms will occur(mainly in Kentucky)  Locally heavy rain is likely! Everyone gets a half inch to one inch.  Parts of Kentucky have the best chance of exceeding an inch.

Rainamounts

Shoes

Temps

TempPlunge

    Minor flooding is likely with this, but shouldn't get too out of control since the dry air arrives in the morning shutting everything off. Be alert for standing water later tonight if you have any travel plans.

ChristmasTree

    Friday evening offers nice weather with temps warming into the 50s and 60s during the day. This dry weather lingers into a large portion of Saturday. A few showers will pop up with daytime heating on Saturday, but should remain somewhat spotty.

    Enough sunshine should develop on Saturday to get our high temp to near 70 degrees.  All it will take is some bonus sunshine and we could be talking record high.  The target is 72. This is reachable with any bonus sun. 

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01/18/2017

HD VID: Gym Roof Collapses During Game!

Dramatic footage showing the roof of a sports center collapsing during a floorball match in the Czech Republic on Saturday, January 14.

YouTube Video via The Weather Network

The collapse occurred after weeks of heavy snowfall in the region.  Fortunately, despite the large number of athletes and spectators, only minor injuries were reported.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Enchanting Video: Bubbles Freeze Before Your Eyes

Watch this mesmerizing real time footage of soap bubbles freezing right before your eyes. Photographer, Mike Shaw, from Saint Paul, Minnesota captured the amazing video. Although it looks like time lapse video, Shaw said it was shot in real time. He said he successfully filmed four bubbles out of 25 tries. Watch and be amazed!

Video Courtesy: CNN

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-Katie McGraw 

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Rain Train Makes A Few More Visits

From Jude Redfield...

    Another half inch to one inch of rain is back in the forecast from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Most of the rain tapers off by Friday afternoon/night. Much better weather is likely for Friday evening plans to hit the town. More rain comes back late Saturday into Sunday and Monday. Some of this rain will be heavy at times as well.

ChristmasTree

     Don't expect temps to go below freezing until next Thursday or Friday. This could set the stage for the longest stretch of consecutive days above freezing we have ever seen in the month of January.

RadarHelp

     Wanting a return to winter? A cool down begins next Thursday with a step down to highs potentially in the 30s the following Friday and Saturday.  While this isn't exceptionally cold, it is closer to average.  It also appears a few flurries and snow showers will be possible around the 27th and 28th.  It certainly doesn't look that impressive in the snow category, but we do have the chance for flakes to fly.

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01/17/2017

January 17, 2012: The Region's Most Prolific January Tornado Outbreak

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Early on the morning of Tuesday, January 17, 2012, a powerful squall line swept through southern Indiana and central Kentucky along a sharp cold front. Small circulations developed along the line, resulting in nine known tornadoes, mostly across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. The Louisville metropolitan area appeared to be at the center of the tornado activity, with four tornadoes occurring within or just outside of the city.

Radar loop of the squall line charging across the region (Click on image for looping GIF):

1-17-12 animation

In total, there were 9 confirmed tornadoes that occurred across portions of Southern Indiana and Kentucky during the event making it the most prolific tornado event ever recorded during the month of January across this portion of the Ohio Valley.

Jan17tortracks

...EF-1 Tornado in northeast Jefferson County and Oldham County Kentucky...

Start time: 11:12am EST
End time: 11:21am EST
Wind speed: 95mph
Path length: 8.2 miles
Path width: 250 yards
injuries: 1

Narrative: The tornado touched down near the intersection of I-264 and Brownsboro Road. The tornado tracked northeast to near the intersection of Hurstbourne Lane and Brownsboro Road where it briefly lifted. The tornado then reformed and crossed I-265 and continued to the east-northeast through several subdivisions north and northeast of Fincastle. The tornado crossed into Oldham County, moving through Orchard Grass Hills and lifting at the northern tip of Clore Lane. Damage indicators along the path of this tornado included multiple softwood trees down, minor shingle damage to homes, a side wall downed in a large indoor tennis facility, and a barn roof collapse.
An injury occurred as the tornado crossed I-265 when two semi trailers were blown over. The driver of one of the trucks was injured.
Click on the image below to see a map track:

NEJeff_OldhamTorTrack

Below is a radar picture taken when the tornado first touched down. The bright green colors indicate air moving towards the radar (which is located at Fort Knox), and the bright red colors show strong winds moving away from the radar. When those two colors are close to each other, they imply that rotation exists at the interface between the opposing airstreams. The yellow line we plotted on the image shows the eventual track of the tornado. (Note the weak rotation beginning to form just north of Okolona, which would go on to become the tornado that struck near Fern Creek.) Click on the image to enlarge.

Ne_jeffky_1612_srm_med_edit

Here a couple more radar pictures, taken from a local radar near Mount Washington. We've zoomed in on northeast Jefferson County. In the picture on the left the radar is showing intense rotation just inside the Watterson, at an elevation of about 1900 feet. This rotation would spin down to the ground about a minute later, forming the tornado that went along Brownsboro Road. Again we have annotated the radar picture with the eventual tornado track. In the picture on the right, note how far back in the rain the tornado is located, and how the "reflectivity" (the yellows and greens) aren't really all that impressive -- no big areas of red or pink showing up. This is typical with small tornadoes that spin up in squall lines.

Combo

The following image is a still from a video shot by Rebecca Durham, who was near the intersection of Goose Creek Road, facing towards Brownsboro Road (click on the image for a larger version):

Goose_creek_video_still_med

For detailed tracks and damage photos of all 9 tornadoes that occurred on January 17, 2012, CLICK HERE.

Images and information courtesy Louisville National Weather Service

While winter time tornado outbreaks are rare, this event serves as a reminder that they do occur.  It may not be coincidental that later that same winter two more outbreaks occurred across our area including the now infamous March 2, 2012 event.  More on that a bit later.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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01/16/2017

VIRAL VIDEO: Giant Gator Filmed In Florida...

While taking a Sunday stroll at the Circle B Bar Reserve in Florida, a group of tourists came across a gigantic alligator. Kim Joiner happened to be there and videotaped the gator as it strolled by. She estimated that it was about 12 feet long. People on Facebook are now referring to it as “Godzilla of Circle B”! After watching this video you will see why...

Video Source: Fox News

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Relentless Pattern Continues. More Heavy Rain and Storms Expected!

Our relentlessly gloomy and wet pattern continues this week with three more storms expected to impact our area over the next 7 days.  

Ecmwf_uvz300_noram_7

Storm #1

The first storm has already brought some showers to the area this evening and looks to pick up in intensity overnight with the possibility of thunderstorms.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

AT shows the heaviest activity occurring between between 10 pm and 4 am ET tonight.  

Although we'll probably still have a few showers in the area, the bulk of the precip looks to wind down by daybreak with only light showers or drizzle expected for the remainder of the day.  

Rainfall totals of between between a half inch and an inch will be possible for areas along and south of the river.  Southern Indiana is likely looking at lighter amounts on the order of a quarter to half inch.

Storm #2

Following a much deserved break in the precip on Wednesday, rain looks to return promptly on Thursday and into Thursday night.  Data suggests this system could also bring us thunderstorms with generous rainfall amounts in excess of one inch late Thursday through Friday morning.

Gfs_pr6_slp_t850_ky_16

Storm #3 

While both tonight's system and the one expected on Thursday look to bring us considerable rainfall and the possibility of storms, neither of these looks to be much of a severe threat.  That might not be the case with the storm on Sunday.  

Data suggests an anomalously deep low pressure system developing to our southwest by late on Sunday.  The GFS has it at 985 mb while the Euro is going even lower than that with a jaw dropping 979 on the most recent run! Wow!!

Gfs_pr6_slp_t850_ky_27

Regardless which model you look at, the ear marks are there for a bad storm with the possibility of very heavy rain, and perhaps severe weather as well especially if the low develops to our southwest.  This would allow surface winds to "back" to the east or southeast helping to generate low level spin in the atmosphere.  

The reason the models are showing such a strong storm is because of the jet stream pattern projected to develop.

Both the Euro and the GFS show an enormous, "negatively tilted" upper level trough over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by late on Sunday.  This would allow air aloft to cool while surface temps remain warm potentially creating instability through atmoshperic dynamics. 

***This is a storm that will need to be monitored***

Ecmwf_uvz300_noram_27

Looking further ahead, you 'll notice the second, very large, upper storm that I have highlighted near the Pacific Northwest. 

The evolution of this system could mark the beginning of a large scale pattern shift towards the end of next week potentially marking the beginning of our next cold spell.  

While there is plenty of uncertainty that far out, it is something worth noting.

Marc and Rick will have the latest forecast details on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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01/15/2017

No Rest for the Weary. More Rain and Storms!

Gfx

Following six straight days of rain, now we have this to contend with. 

Satrad

A vigorous upper low spinning over the Southern Plains promises to bring us another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

While AT keeps us mainly dry during the morning and afternoon, you can't rule out a spot shower.  Temps will warm though thanks to a south breeze.

Although not shown here, I expect showers to redevelop by early evening and rain looks to become widespread Monday night.

At3

At4

At5

At6

Showers and storms end quickly from west to east Tuesday morning.  

The system is progressive enough that it should keep rainfall amounts under control.  Locally up to one inch will be possible.

Rainfall projection

Temps continue to warm for much of the week and a little sunshine is even possible.  Jude has a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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