By the middle of this work week, we will watch a front move across the area and it will interact with our hot / humid air in place. With all the heat and humidity in the area, it is justified to look and see if any of this could produce severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center does have severe probabilities for our area and that is where we begin the discussion.
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has their "general t-storm" risk or what they call a marginal risk posted for our area on Wednesday. This is below the slight risk category and therefore we don't show it on TV, but for the blog I will show it here.
SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday
Notice SPC has their marginal risk for our whole area on Wednesday.
SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday
Notice SPC has a 5% chance of severe weather for their marginal risk on Wednesday which is to cover "rogue" severe storms.
My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk On Wednesday
To get organized severe weather, we traditionally need specific ingredients present. Since I haven't had the chance to blog a severe risk in a little while, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur.
The forcing Wednesday comes from a weak disturbance that moves across the area combined with the weak cold front that will follow. The data shows this weak disturbance late morning to mid afternoon on Wednesday and is enough for us to give it a 50% chance. It is not a monster by any means.
Wind Energy / Instability
Virtually every single day in the summer, we have instability and it will be more than enough to support on severe weather on Wednesday. In tonight's blog, I want to look at the instability and wind energy together to make it a bit easier to digest. For wind energy, we will look at a value called "bulk shear". Basically "bulk shear" needs to be near or above 35 knots / 40 mph to support organized severe weather. With the pattern looking a bit more summer-like, sometimes under ideal circumstances that criteria can flex just a touch. Wednesday, the wind energy is very low at only about 10 knots / 11 mph. Let's take a closer look.
Instability / Wind Energy Wednesday
Notice the instability values are solid and nearly 3,000 units during the afternoon on Wednesday. At the same time, the bulk shear values are struggling near 10 knots or 15 mph. This instability is supportive of severe weather, but the wind energy is sub-standard and would be more supportive of only rogue severe storms.
The bottom line is that some of the ingredients are clearly not present in strength on Wednesday.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Wednesday
The forcing is not superb on Wednesday, but should be enough to fire some storms. There are questions still about whether the storms go in the morning, then stabilize the afternoon, and minimize the severe threat in the evening. The evolution of any Tuesday night / early Wednesday storms will need to be resolved in the future data before I can definitively dial this timeline in. The wind energy is borderline pathetic on Wednesday and way below my criteria to support organized severe weather. Let me be clear though, in summer you can still get organized severe storms if the setup is ideal with weak mid level wind flow. There are no questions about whether the instability is supportive of severe weather, but virtually no wind energy is present.
How can you get severe weather with one ingredient virtually non-existent? With lots of fuel, sometimes the storms can organized as the cold air rushes out from them causing the line to surge southward. In this scenario, you can get a damaging wind threat with very little wind energy in the atmosphere. I think SPC is doing the right thing keeping this below organized severe weather criteria and going with the general t-storm risk for now . Once we can resolve the timeline for storms, then we can assess if an upgrade to a slight risk would be needed but it is conceivable it will be necessary.
AdvanceTrak shows the cluster of storms pop mid afternoon then move southward. Notice the "bow" shape to the storms as they move southward in the afternoon which is a signal for a strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds. This run of advancetrak does support the threat for organized severe weather on Wednesday and we will need to watch it closely.
The bottom line is that some severe could occur in our area on Wednesday. The evolution still has some questions but it seems that a line of strong/severe storms could very well form during the afternoon on Wednesday. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threats.
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