Weather models started hinting at this possibility last week, and now it looks like a pretty sure bet that this Halloween will indeed be a very cold one!
The latest runs of both the GFS and Euro continue to trend more aggressively towards a colder and more unsettled solution for Friday and into the start of the weekend.
The 12z GFS is now advertising the development of a HUGE TROUGH of low pressure over the Eastern US. It is now deeper and located further west than it has been in previous runs.
Underneath this mammoth trough, the GFS brings down a tongue of VERY COLD or dare I say ARCTIC AIR down into portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest straight out of Eastern Canada Friday evening.
So how cold are we talking for Halloween?
As it stands, it looks like we'll see highs occuring early in the day, perhaps in the low 50's during the morning or early afternoon hours. However, temps are expected to fall through the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.
In addition to dropping temps, the wind will begin to howl as we head into Friday evening.
TIMING COULDN'T BE WORSE FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS!
The combination of temps dropping through the 40's and a strong north wind will send wind chill values plummeting, unfortunately, just in time for the trick or treaters to begin making their rounds!
By late evening, the air temp is expected to fall into the 30's with winds that could gust in excess of 30 mph. The combination of those two will drop wind chill readings into the 20's! BRRR!!!
Needless to say, you will need to bundle your little gobblins up in plenty of layers before heading out!
Could we see sleet or snow?
Unfortunately, in addition to the cold, the chance of showers is looking more likely now too.
The GFS and Euro are both developing a strong double barreled low pressure system that looks to set up to our east across the Appalachians.
As this occurs, strong winds on the back side of the system look to wrap around moisture that initially should fall as rain.
However, as the colder air invades the area, the precip could mix with or even change over to sleet by mid evening!
Showers look to diminish overnight, but before doing so, could even come to an end as a few flakes of, yes I have to say it, ssssnnnnnoooowwww!!!
I know what you are thinking, this is some sort of sick Halloween joke right? Sorry to say, but I'm not.
Although any frozen precip that occurs isn't expected to amount to anything, the cold will!
As the arctic air mass continues to invade the area Friday night, it is looking increasingly likely that this will be a KILLING FREEZE for the entire region.
Just how cold could it get?
The GFS is currently advertising mid to upper 20's across all of Kentuckiana by Saturday morning.
This would make it the coldest air mass to reach our area in nearly 8 months! (The record low, btw, for Saturday morning is 27° set way back in 1873.)
To make matters worse, a blustery north wind looks to continue into the morning hours on Saturday which could produce wind chill readings all the way down into the teens! OUCH!!!
The cold looks to continue through the weekend with another freeze expected Saturday night.
So what do I think?
I think it's time to prepare for winter. As we roll back the clocks, November will be arriving with the cold this weekend and although frozen precip is pretty rare this early in the season, a first freeze is not. (Average first freeze is Nov 4th for Louisville)
However, considering we just came off a stretch of 70's and record breaking 80 degree weather over the last few days, this will, without a doubt, come as quite the shock to the system.
The good news is that this first true taste of winter, although intense, will be a fairly short lived one as 60's and 70's are forecasted to return next week.
Be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.
Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell
Find me on Facebook!
Follow me on Twitter!
Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org