10/23/2017

FIRST FROST/FREEZE? When You Will Wake Up To Temps In The 30's...

The month of October has been chilly at times with frost outside of Louisville. At the airport, the coldest reading was only 43 back on the 17th. The average date of the first 36 degree reading (Frost) in Louisville is October 20th...

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The average date of the first 32 degree reading (Freeze) in Louisville is November 1st...

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The average date of the first 28 degree reading (Hard Freeze) in Louisville is November 12th...

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While both Wednesday and Thursday morning look cold this week, I think wind might prevent widespread frost from developing. Sheltered locations could certainly see some both of those mornings. The weekend is another story. A cold front will crash in Friday/Saturday bringing in the coldest air of the season. Winds relax behind the front meaning we could see our first widespread frost, including Louisville, by Saturday morning... 

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Sunday morning looks even colder! Check out the GFS model showing temperatures around 30 which means our first freeze is more than likely. If this all goes according to plan, time to put away the allergy medication and find the ice scraper!

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-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

10/22/2017

Cold Front En Route: Timing & Impacts

An upper level low is pumping gulf moisture toward the Ohio River Valley, as a strong cold front, approaches our area. Widespread showers will lift into Kentucky and spread northward over the next day. The heaviest rain is likely to occur on overnight through Monday morning. The cold front will bring a significant drop in temps and breezy NW winds after it sweeps through on Monday. 

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TIMING: Currently, we are still dry, but there are a few showers brewing out to our west and we are expecting a few to stray showers to impact our western counties... 
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You can see those few isolated showers today on Advancetrack... Scroll through the images to get an idea of timing an coverage.  Otherwise, it will be variably cloudy and warm. Winds will begin to pick up this afternoon.  

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Rain will become more likely overnight and into Monday, as the aforementioned system moves toward our area. The low will be deepening and bring cooler air to the area as well as widespread rain to the region by Monday morning. At times, it could be heavy. Expect a rather soggy day. It could negatively impact the morning commute, so be sure to plan ahead and give yourself some extra time. 

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I increased the chance for rain to 100% for Monday. The heaviest rain will be early on Monday morning. 

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Rain will start to decrease in coverage later in the day, but there will still be scattered showers through Monday evening. 
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Large scale flooding doesn't look to be a risk but a localized flooding could be issue in areas that see repeated rounds of rain. The heaviest rain is likely to be across central Kentucky and south of the river, where 1-2'' is likely with locally higher amounts are possible. Southern IN will still see quite a bit, likely half an inch to 1.5''. 

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As mentioned, it will get MUCH colder following the front with cloudy weather and scattered showers on Tuesday and showers ending on Wednesday.
Tuesday will be a windy with gusts up to 20-30 mph. The coolest day will be Wednesday and slightly warmer on Thursday, but it will be brief as a new system approaches the area at the end of the week. 

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Be sure to join Jeremy tonight to hear the latest, as a the system will be very close to the area. Jude will be on from 5-9 am on WDRB during the heaviest rainfall. Until then, let's connect! The links to my social media pages are below!  

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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10/21/2017

Changes Ahead: Heavy Rain & MUCH Cooler

A classic and textbook low pressure system is setting up over the US and we are in the midst of the warm sector. And warm is a key word of our forecast today and tomorrow with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s!

An upper level low will dive from the plains and pump gulf moisture toward the Ohio River Valley as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. These two systems could lead to potentially waves of heavy rain on Monday and MUCH cooler air by mid week. 
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TIMING: 

The data continues to back off on the rain chance for Sunday. There will be more clouds across the area during the day and if we see any rain tomorrow it will be late in the day and in our western counties. Rain will become more likely overnight and into Monday. As the aforementioned system moves toward our area, it will be deepening and bring cooler air to the area and widespread rain to the region by Monday. At times it could be heavy. Expect a rather soggy day. 

Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get an idea of timing an coverage: 

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The deep upper level low will be over the area Tuesday through Wednesday night. Thanks to  colder air aloft, scattered showers will be possible on Tuesday and isolated showers ending on Wednesday. 
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Monday and into Tuesday looks to be rather soggy and at this point it looks like we could see 1-2'' of rain and locally higher amounts. It does look like the heftiest rain totals will be south of the river, because it will be raining there the longest. 

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As mentioned, temps are going to drop significantly. We will go from summer-like weather, to highs only in the 50s by Wednesdays. Lows Wednesday night will cool into the mid-upper 30s. This could lead to some frost across the area, if we clear fast enough, but it may still be too breezy. It will be something to watch. Temps will start to warm toward the end of the week, but not for long. To be honest, temps are ALL over the place this week. It's a wild ride! 

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We will be tracking out this system all weekend. Be sure to join Jeremy this weekend and me tomorrow morning from 6-9 am on WDRB for the latest information on timing and impacts! Until then, let's connect! The links to my social media pages are below!  

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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10/20/2017

RAIN RETURNS: When It Arrives & How Much To Expect...

For those of you trying to make weekend plans, Saturday looks like the better day with plenty of sun and highs in the low 80's. Sunday doesn't look bad, but a few showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon. I'd target locations west of I-65 for the slightly better opportunity. It won't be as bright either with limited amounts of sun. Rain doesn't become a big deal until Sunday night into Monday. The GFS and EURO both show a solid soaking 1 - 2" rainfall totals for a majority of our area...

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Most of the rain will fall on Monday as a cold front slides through. Locally heavy downpours and a rumble of thunder are possible as well. This will be the first front that marks the beginning of a pattern change. Another one hits Tuesday with wind, showers and a blast of much colder air. Marc and I will let you know when highs don't escape the 50's on WDRB!  

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Orionids Peak Tonight!

Attention early risers or night owls! The annual Orionid meteor shower peaks again tonight! The peak happens at 4 am, with a window of 2-6 am. While the peak is from October 20-22nd, you can see the Orionids as late as October 29th. 

The peak is over several nights: last night, tonight and tomorrow night. We will still have clear conditions, so viewing will be perfect tonight! There will be more clouds for Saturday night. There is a new moon right now, so it will be very dark outside and the moon's light will not impact the show. 

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What's a meteor shower, anyway? 

Meteors are tiny space debris burning up as they hit Earth's atmosphere. There are a few major and annual meteor showers, like the Orionids. For the Orionids, the debris are particles left behind by Halley's Comet, which last was in our cosmic neighborhood in 1986. Halley's Comet left behind the debris responsible for the Orionids. The Earth runs into the cloud of debris in October and November, resulting in the Orionid showers. 

Learn more about what causes meteor showers here.

What are the Orionids? 

Are so named because the Orion constellation is the apparent point of origin for the shower. Look south, near Orion's club. There will be a peak of 10-15 meteors per hour, during the pre-dawn hours. 

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How to Watch the Show: 

The best thing you can do to maximize the number of meteors you'll see is to get as far away from urban light pollution as possible and find a location with a clear, unclouded view of the night sky. As mentioned above, we will have clear skies tonight/Saturday morning! More on that below!

Once you get to your viewing location, search for the darkest patch of sky you can find, as meteors can appear anywhere overhead.

Meteors will always travel in a path away from the constellation for which the shower is named. For example, meteors during this shower will appear to originate from the constellation Orion. So you will want to look to the south in order to catch the Orionids. 

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Dress Warm!

We are expecting seasonable overnight lows in the mid 50s in metro and low 50s in the suburbs. We will also have very clear skies across the entire region, so no clouds will impact the show! You can see that on this image of Advancetrak below.

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A Few More Tips: 

Bring something comfortable on which to sit or lie down. It can take a while to see anything so plan to be patient and watch for at least half an hour. A reclining chair or ground pad will make it far more comfortable to keep your gaze on the night sky.

Lastly, put away the telescope or binoculars. Using either reduces the amount of sky you can see at one time, lowering the odds that you'll see anything but darkness. Instead, let your eyes hang loose and don't look in any one specific spot.  Avoid looking at your cell phone or any other light. Both destroy night vision!

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Weekend Forecast Update

From Jude Redfield

    Clear sky and no moonlight tonight sets us up for perfect viewing of the Orionid meteor shower. You can still catch them tomorrow night as well, but scattered clouds could impact portions of the region.

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    Tomorrow's Urban Bourbon 1/2 marathon has the best weather outcome imaginable.

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    Muzzleloader season begins this weekend and the weather will be dry, but don't expect cold air to get the deer moving. It could always be worse! Good luck and enjoy the pleasant weather.

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    Here's a quick discussion on the weekend. Scattered clouds arrive mixed with lots of sun for Saturday. Enough sun to bolster the temps to 80 in the afternoon. No rain is expected tomorrow and the rain chance during the day Sunday is VERY small. The dry air locked in place should allow for dry weather during the day. The only exception might be an isolated shower or sprinkle that could briefly occur. The rain chance that means the most gets going overnight Sunday into Monday. Locally heavy rain is likely on Monday. Rain amounts in excess of an inch could be on the table.

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10/19/2017

NOAA's Winter 2017-2018 Outlook

Are you hoping for more than the 2.7'' of snow we saw last winter this year??

A lot of people are wondering what to expect this year and you're in luck! NOAA released their winter forecast today! 

Snowstorm.

Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Winter Outlook today. CPC says La Nina will potentially emerge for the second year in a row. This is the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in. CPC says if La Nina conditions develop, it will be weak and probably short-lived, but could still shape our upcoming winter. 

Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.

As a reminder, La Niña Criteria:

  • Average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were at least 0.9°F cooler than average in the preceding month.
  • An average anomaly of at least -0.9°F has persisted or is expected to persist for 5 consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods.
  • The atmosphere over the tropical Pacific exhibits changes commonly associated with La Niña, including one or more of the following:
    • stronger than usual easterly trade winds,
    • an increase in cloudiness and rainfall over Indonesia and a corresponding drop in average surface pressure,
    • a decrease in cloudiness and rainfall in the eastern tropical Pacific, and an increase in the average surface pressure.

Other factors that influence winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and is difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events along the West Coast.

And without further ado:

Here is a look at NOAA's 2017 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation:

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, including the Ohio River Valley. The wetter-than-average conditions extend from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

  • Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.

  • The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

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Temperature:

  • Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., including the Ohio River Valley, along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska. 

  • Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

  • The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

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Things to Note:

The U.S. Winter Outlook will be updated on November 16. Also, this seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.  All this outlook tells us are possible trends for the months to come.

Seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what's likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods. At this point of the year, we should be starting to think about winter and preparing for some cold and snowy days!

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Marc and Rick will both be discussing their thoughts on this outlook on WDRB News this evening. Be sure to join them to get all the details! They will also be discussing the week's forecast and how a new system could bring the return of rain for part of the weekend. 

I will see you on WDRB News at 11:30 am Friday morning. Until then, we can connect on social media! The links to my pages are below.

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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10/18/2017

TREE FULL OF FIRE: Have you ever seen anything like this?

Matthew McDermott was scoping out potential wildfire escape routes in Schellville, California when he came across this tree full of fire! Have you ever seen anything like this? The only other time I've seen similar video was when lightning struck a tree in St. Louis. The moist sap inside the tree allowed for this eerie effect to occur. Check it out... 

Video Credit: Storyful Rights Management

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

Orionids Meteor Shower: Peak Soon!

Calling all meteor enthusiasts! 

The annual Orionid meteor shower peaks this week from October 20th-October 22nd, with NASA specifying 4 am this Friday! This is also when we will have a dark, moonless night, because it will be the morning after a new moon. The sky will be 1% illuminated by a waxing crescent moon. Thursday night and Friday night will be our clearest nights as well. 

This show is for early risers or night owls though, the peak happens at 4 am, with a window of 2-6 am. While the peak is a day away, we can start seeing some tonight and as late as October 29th. 

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What's a meteor shower, anyway? 

Meteors are tiny space debris burning up as they hit Earth's atmosphere. There are a few major and annual meteor showers, like the Orionids. For the Orionids, the debris are particles left behind by Halley's Comet, which last was in our cosmic neighborhood in 1986. Halley's Comet left behind the debris responsible for the Orionids. The Earth runs into the cloud of debris in October and November, resulting in the Orionid showers. 

Learn more about what causes meteor showers here.

What are the Orionids? 

Are so named because the Orion constellation is the apparent point of origin for the shower. Look south, near Orion's club. There will be a peak of 10-15 meteors per hour, during the pre-dawn hours. 

Orionid metor 3

How to Watch the Show: 

The best thing you can do to maximize the number of meteors you'll see is to get as far away from urban light pollution as possible and find a location with a clear, unclouded view of the night sky. We will have clear skies Friday morning! More on that below! Once you get to your viewing location, search for the darkest patch of sky you can find, as meteors can appear anywhere overhead.

As mentioned above, the meteors will always travel in a path away from the constellation for which the shower is named. For example, meteors during this shower will appear to originate from the constellation Orion. So you will want to look to the south in order to catch the Orionids. 

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Dress Warm!

No matter where you are trying to watch the meteors you also want to dress for success! This means clothing appropriate for cool overnight temperatures! Friday morning will be chilly but not as cold as last night! We are expecting overnight lows in the low 50s in metro and low to mid 40s in the suburbs. We will also have very clear skies across the entire region, so no clouds will impact the show! You can see that on this image of Advancetrak below. It will be slightly warmer Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows in the mid 50s, but still very clear conditions. 

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A Few More Tips: 

Bring something comfortable on which to sit or lie down. It can take a while to see anything so plan to be patient and watch for at least half an hour. A reclining chair or ground pad will make it far more comfortable to keep your gaze on the night sky.

Lastly, put away the telescope or binoculars. Using either reduces the amount of sky you can see at one time, lowering the odds that you'll see anything but darkness. Instead, let your eyes hang loose and don't look in any one specific spot.  Avoid looking at your cell phone or any other light. Both destroy night vision!

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

 

10/17/2017

TEMP TUG Of WAR: Climate Prediction Center 8 - 14 Day Outlook...

Many people outside of the city limits woke up to a coating of frost this morning. Yes, the rumors are true that a warming trend will kick in for the rest of the week. However, there is another shot of cold air collecting and it should be here later next week. The Climate Prediction Center has a 50% chance of below average temperatures in their 8 - 14 day temperature outlook. Take a look at the map below where blue = below, and red = above average temperatures...

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NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) has a similar idea showing 2-meter temperatures running about 4 to 6 degrees C below normal in our area. Our average high is around 66.  This would translate to highs in the upper 50's and low 60's later next week. I think we will also end up with more widespread frost or wind chills in the 20's! This would easily be the coldest air of the season thus far...

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Image Courtesy: WeatherBell

The pattern appears to be "high amplitude" meaning lots of ups and downs in the temperature department. While it looks like we get a serious shot of cold next week, it also appears above average temperatures return by the very end of October. There's no surprise here because cold air tends to moderate in our area this time of the year. If this occurred in January or February, the endless supply of cold air would keep the furnace working overtime. Marc and I will be on WDRB with the numbers!

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Image Courtesy: WeatherBell

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather