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01/06/2012

The Latest On Any Chance Of Snow On Next Week's Storm

Next week's storm has to be the biggest story we have over the next 7-days. It will get a LOT colder late next week and I want to discuss the chance of any snow showers. This topic will probably be the focus of my blogs as we continue to get closer to this storm system.

 

The Big Cold Front Next Week

 

It is funny we are talking about chances of snow showers when it is 63 degrees outside! Clearly we will have quite the swing in temperatures over the next 7 days. The stacked front looks to arrive on Wednesday / Thursday next week and will bring arctic air back to our area. The part that I want to discuss is the snow / snow shower chance with this system. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show very nice agreement on the evolution of this storm. There are some timing differences, but the important upper level support looks similar. Notice the GFS and ECMWF show an upper level disturbance going directly over our area next Thursday.

 

GFS Mid Level Disturbances Next Thursday

This is absolutely ideal for us to get convective snow showers. These are the bursts that are accompanied by gusty winds and brief heavy snow squalls.

 

Gfs_500_1

 

 

ECMWF Mid Level Disturbances Next Thursday

Like yesterday, the ECMWF is not as deep, but still would support snow showers in particular north of the river.

 

Ecmwf_500

 

 

The other mechanism that can produce snow showers in these storms systems is called cold air advection. Cold air surging displaces the less dense warm air resulting in rising motion. Strong cold air advection in our area is notorious for producing some snow showers. The GFS shows great cold air advection Thursday!

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Next Thursday

This cold air surge is a good sign for some flakes from this system.

 

Gfs_850_1

 

One would expect some snow showers to show up on the computer models next Thursday based on the info above, but take a look at the last 3 runs from the GFS all valid for next Thursday. There is no precip at all???

 

Gfs_3

 

Gfs_2

 

Gfs_1

 

 

My Thoughts On Snow Chances

 

As you know, I don't pay a lot of attention to precipitation forecasts on medium range forecasts from computer models. They simply do not deal with the physics of the lower atmosphere well in these situations and I have learned to discard their forecasts a lot. The data they produce in the mid levels is more reliable and we as meteorologists simply need to determine whether the pattern does support any snow showers. I still believe the upper level low path is good, I like the cold air advection, and I have raised the chance of snow showers / squalls next Thursday to 50%. I feel this storm system will unfold in a very similar way to what happened earlier this week. That means a good number of snow showers Thursday and some of the lucky ones could get up to 1" of light snow. I do want to emphasize that there is no data supporting any significant snow storm from the setup and I have no reason to believe that will change.

 

 

For our snow lovers, I am giving away Snowfoxes and Snowfox Ice Scrapers on my facebook page. All you need to do is click "LIKE" my facebook page below to be eligible!


https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

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