Any Severe Weather Risk Today???
This has been an unusually busy week for the fall. We have had threats of severe weather every single day this work week leading into our Thursday. The front responsible for those storms is still drapped across our area, so I wanted to discuss the potential for it to produce severe weather this afternoon / evening.
SPC Severe Weather Risk Today/Tonight
For the first day this week, SPC does not have any of our area in a slight risk of severe weather. With that said, they do have some severe weather probabilities for our area.
SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Today/Tonight
Notice you don't see any slight risk for our area... just the general t-storm risk.
SPC Hail Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC does have a 5% chance of hail for any storms that fire late today / tonight.
SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC also has a 5% chance of damaging winds in our area
SPC Tornado Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC has no tornado risk for our area.
Severe Weather Discussion
As we dive into the discussion about severe weather potential today, I want to remind you of the ingredients I look for when I forecast organized severe weather risks.
We still have a front in our area, so forcing is available to generate storms this afternoon. This doesn't mean they will be severe, but it does mean some storms will fire. We have a little action right now along the front just south of Louisville.
The instability this afternoon is quite frankly not very good. Much of that is caused by the nagging cloud cover we have seen all afternoon long. Most of the instability values in our area are from 500 - 1000 units.
If you are a regular to my blog, then you know I look for wind energy at 6 miles above the ground at or above 35 knots or 40 mph to support an organized severe weather threat. This wind is crucial because it allows storms to evacuate much of the air and rain that rise into the updraft. If the storm cannot evacuate some of the mass it collects as the air rises, then the updraft simply cannot sustain the weight of the updraft and the storm collapses. When you look at the winds 6 miles above the ground the afternoon, you see most of the flow is 25 - 30 knots / 28 - 34 mph. While there may be a touch of winds that are a bit higher to our west, it appears it will decrease after sunset.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Tonight
The data shows weakness in the instability and wind energy fields this evening. Sometimes if either the instability or wind energy is just absurdly high it can make up for a weakness in the other field. Both of these key fields are weak today and that means the threat of organized severe weather is low. I agree with SPC not placing our area in a slight risk of severe and I see the threat as low. While an isolated warning can never be ruled out, this is not an event ... period.
AdvanceTrak shows the scattered nature of the showers / t-storms tonight. Notice you just don't see a lot of red or purples indicating the cores are just not very strong.
I will watch the setup closely regardless and have updates as necessary.
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