Are Temperatures In The 30s-40s Heading Our Way?
We have two cold fronts that will be moving across the area in the next 7 days and one of these fronts looks like it may be a bull of a front. I think widespread lows in the 40s will occur within the next 7 days and some may drop into the 30s in Indiana or Kentucky!
Big Temperature Changes
In the last 3 weeks, we have moderated the drought and this has allowed the atmosphere fall into it's natural pattern for eastern US. What I mean by that is the US has desired a trough in the eastern US, but the drought modified that flow all summer long. I refer to this as a drought modified pattern. Now with significant changes in the drought situation, we will allow the natural order of the atmosphere to return and this means potentially cooler than normal temperatures dominating the next 10 - 14 days in our area.
The first of these fronts will be moving across our area Friday. To give you an idea of how strong it will be, let's look at the current temperatures about 1 mile above the ground so you can get an idea of what temperatures at this height look like when we have a day like today... in the 80s.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Today
Notice the orange colors in our area and we know this equates to temperatures in the mid 80s.
By Friday this front will be navigating its way across our area. Watch how the temperatures at this height begin to cool significantly on Friday / early Saturday.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground 7 AM Saturday
Notice the orange colors have been replaced by greeb colors by early this weekend. Those greens represent highs in the mid and upper 70s with lows in the mid 50s.
Our next front will be loading up early next week and taking aim at our area on Tuesday. Notice this front takes the cool to the next level.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground 7 PM Monday
Notice the blues moving across the high plains and in our direction late Monday.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground 7 AM Wednesday
Notice the blues have locked themselves into our area by 7 AM Wednesday. These temperatures are roughly 11 degrees colder than the front that will move through on Saturday. This front is not joke and likely will drop highs into the upper 60s / low 70s. Outside of the metro, lows could drop into the 30s Tuesday or Wednesday night!
To show you this is not just an anomoly of one computer model, let me show you the EURO computer model valid for the middle of next week.
EURO Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground 7 AM Wednesday
Notice the EURO verifies the cold blue temperatures plowing into our area by the middle of next week.
When you look at this pattern in motion, you get the feel of how the cold air from Canada continues to push into our area every few days and each successive front gets stronger.
My Thoughts On Our Weather Pattern
Our summer pattern desired northwesterly, cool flow but the drought input has been stronger. The drought modified pattern this summer resulted in a very hot summer for our area. Over the last 3 weeks, we have seen multiple long duration rains from the remnants of Isaac to the severe storms last week. This has eroded the drought in our area and allows the pattern to return where it has desired to go all summer. This change allows a dip in the jetstream to repeatedly develop in the eastern US and I think will lead us into an extended period of below normal temperatures in our area. Highs in the 60s are a distinct possibility next week and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a low in the 30s in rural parts of KY or Indiana. This is setting up to be a major cool down!
Today, I want introduce you to a new weather map referred to as an anomolous temperature map. This map simply tells you if the temperatures are above or below normal. Let's look at some of this data.
GFS Temperatures Anomolies Late Tuesday
Notice cooler than normal temperature anomolies approaching our area late Tuesday. The data suggest temperatures will be a good 8 degrees below normal by the middle of next week!
GFS Temperatures Anomolies 7 AM Wednesday
By Wednesday morning, you can see the temperature anomolies are significant and right over our area. The data suggests temperatures could be upwards of 12 degrees below normal.
GFS Temperatures Anomolies Late Wednesday
Wednesday afternooon shows the same trend and I think many locations may not exceed upper 60s for highs!
Of even more interest is the models continue this trend for the foreseeable future. I am clicking the "buy button" on this pattern because I feel it is very reasonable considering the drought modification that has occurred.
GFS Temperatures Anomolies 14 Days From Today
Notice cooler than normal temperature anomolies continue to expand the week following next week. Some of these temperature anomolies in the midwest approach 20 degrees below normal!!!
The bottom line is that I feel there is a high likelihood that temperatures will be below normal for the next 10 - 14 days and it could last even longer than that.
If you ever have any question,
please remember I can be reached on facebook easily! Just follow the link below
to my facebook page and click "LIKE"!