Evening Update To Storm Setup Tonight
With storms approaching the area tonight, I decided a blog update might be helpful this evening. I want to take you through the latest on the storms and whether they could be severe.
The storms continue to line up from Jasper, IN west through southern Illinois this evening. Many of these storms are producing hail and one storm did produce a tornado near Okawville, IL earlier today. Notice all the severe storms are in Illinois and none are severe in Indiana or Kentucky.
The storm that is west of Jasper, IN may produce hail to the size of pennies and I will be watching it closely.
When Will The Storms Arrive Here?
The latest data from the HRRR high resolution computer model continues to suggest that the storms will approach the metro area around 11 pm - midnight. Here is the latest timeline from the HRRR.
HRRR Precipitation 10 PM
Notice the HRRR shows the larger cluster of storms nearing Jasper, IN in the next hour or so.
HRRR Precipitation 11 PM
Notice the storms stay strong, but not as intense as they were earlier in Illinois. You see more yellows and less reds as they move through the metro..
HRRR Precipitation Midnight
Notice the reds and yellows are just being replaced with greens by midnight as the entire cluster continues to weaken.
My Thoughts On Severe Potential
SPC has had a good handle on the severe risk this evening. They are highlighting the area west of Louisville as their main severe weather concern area.
Looking at the latest radar data, I see a sign showing up on radar that may indicate the storms have reached their strongest state and may be weakening. Notice the arrow in the image below showing a green line AHEAD of the storms.
This green line means the cold air is surging ahead of the storms. Since storms feed on warm, moist air this transition is critical. When we see this cold air surge ahead of storms, we call the storms "outflow dominated". Once storms go outflow dominated, it almost always means they will follow a general weaking trend. I think from this point forward, the severe reports should become more and more isolated. While I cannot rule out a couple of warnings, I think the trend will be for the storms to weak.
The storms should be roaming through the western part of our area from right now through around 10:30 pm. They should be in Louisville around midnight and continuing to weaken. By 2 am they should be in the eastern part of our area and follow the weakening trend. We will see much more storm coverage along and north of the river than our southern counties.
I will have a full update on WDRB News at 10.
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