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09/01/2012

Heavy rains and strong storms possible on Sunday!

Parts of the area picked up some pretty good rainfall earlier on Saturday.  As much as 1.5" fell across the metro area with officially one inch being recorded at the airport.  

Without a doubt, we'll be adding to those totals over the next 24 hours.

Dma rainfall

Currently, we are looking at dry weather across the viewing area.   However, you'll notice the large area of rain and thunderstorms looming a short distance to our west.

Rad

These storms were severe earlier this evening and are now losing a bit of steam as they slowly work their way east out ahead of the remnant tropical low spinning near St. Louis right now.

Satrad

This low will likely bring us multiple rounds of rain over the second half of the weekend as it gradually moves towards us.

The real question will be timing out these rounds of showers and storms.  

Earlier this evening, AdvanceTrak was painting a pretty wet picture for much of the viewing area during the morning hours on Sunday.

At1

It was also showing a nice lull in the activity by mid afternoon, or just in time for the Governor's Cup! 

At2

However, before you get too excited, a more recent run of AdvanceTrak is now showing strong storms firing up across the central portions of our viewing area just before kickoff.  

At4

This, of course, would not be ideal for those in attendance. 

However, with so much data pointing at rain, I think we need to go with a high confidence forecast for rain at some point during the game.

Although it probably won't rain the entire game, I think rain is likely at some point during the game with thunderstorms also possible.  In addition, some storms could be strong!

Fcst gfx

On the flip side, we still need the rainfall. 

So how much more rain can we expect?  

The Euro weather model is indicating that much of the area could recieve an additional two inches or more between now and evening on Labor Day.  

Rainfall projection

Not great timimg, but I guess we can't complain too much considering how dry it has been.  

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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If you’re forced into a tiny break window that’s run with military precision, it can easily become draining and boring.

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