Severe Risk On Our Area For The Evening!
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon. We did anticipate this yesterday if you read my evening blog. The first round of storms is through the area and now we are going to wait for the second potential round of storms. Let's take a look at the latest.
SPC Severe Weather Risk Today/Tonight
This morning SPC upgraded our area into the slight risk of severe weather. I think they have an incredibly well placed risk this afternoon and evening and want to get you caught up with the latest.
SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Today/Tonight
Notice the slight risk runs west of I-65 and west of the Louisville metro area.
SPC Hail Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC has the slight risk area in a 15% chance of hail producers.
SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC also has a 15% chance of damaging winds in the slight risk area.
SPC Tornado Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC has a 2% chance of tornadoes in the slight risk area.
Severe Weather Discussion
I want to get right into the heart of this discussion this afternoon. We all know it if cool outside right now, but we are seeing warmer air surge just to our west. We already have 80s moving into west central Kentucky near Madisonville, KY.
This warming is increasing instability over western KY/IL/IN. The high resolution data sets show instability values peaking over this area with values as high as 2000 - 3000 units. Notice the instability wanes quite a bit over our area by around 6 pm this evening.
Wind flow remains supportive of severe weather as is evident by the NAM supercell index. Remember, this is the NAM simply saying what type of t-storms it thinks is possible. Since supercell t-storms more often produce severe weather, we do take note when supercells are more likely.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Tonight
Our atmosphere has been worked over pretty well by the t-storms that moved through earlier today. As you could see by the temperatures, the rebound is already occurring. Western KY/IN and most of Illinois have already recovered so one would think they are the most likely places to get severe weather. The instability is better in those areas and most supportive of a second round of strong to severe storms. In this situation, I think SPC has the spot nailed on the button and I wouldn't change the location even a mile. This is a great forecast on the location. SPC is already warning that a watch is likely over this area over the next hour or so.
As the storms approach our area, they should become more elevated meaning gusty winds and a few hailers in the western part of our area are the primary threats. This does not have the appearance of a major outbreak. I think over western IN/KY and parts of Illinois the threat of severe weather is greater since the storms will be able to work with surface instability. Hail, damaging winds, and even a isolated tornado is possible over western KY/IN and Illinois.
AdvanceTrak is dealing with this setup VERY well and shows the storms weaken as they approach the I-65 corridor. While I won't rule out a stronger storm in the metro, I think west of the metro is the preferred area. As you look at AdvanceTrak, please not the timestamp on the top right part of each image.
More updates on WDRB News at 4 PM.
If you ever have any question,
please remember I can be reached on facebook easily! Just follow the link below
to my facebook page and click "LIKE"!