Severe Weather Risk Friday Night?
Yesterday, I started talking about severe weather risk I believe will develop late Friday / Friday night. SPC had not placed us in a slight risk of severe weather for Friday as of Tuesday afternoon, so I wanted to once again dive into this discussion again tonight.
Storms Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Late Friday
It is starting to look like SPC is hinting that they may place us under a slight risk of severe weather. The have introduced probabilities and this is normally a precursor for a severe weather risk.
SPC Categorical Severe Weather Risk For Late Friday / Early Saturday
Notice there is no categorical risk for late Friday / early Saturday.
SPC Probabilistic Severe Weather Risk For Late Friday / Early Saturday
Notice SPC has introduced a 5% for late Friday / early Saturday. This is normally a sign that they are going to issue a slight risk.
The wording from SPC verifies that they are considering a slight risk of severe weather.
"AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK FRONTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY -- WITH WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE RISK AREA. WHILE THE EVOLUTION REMAINS COMPLEX MAKING DETAILS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT NUDGES EWD AND BEGINS TO SPREAD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. WHILE THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE AFTER DARK -- BEYOND THE PEAK CONVECTIVE CYCLE...OVERALL SETUP WARRANTS INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL/WIND ATTM. AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE."
Friday Severe Weather Discussion
I am going to make this part of the blog pretty short since little has changed in the data from yesterday to today. The data continues to show anywhere from 1,500 - 2,000 units of instability late Friday which would be more than sufficient to support severe weather.
The winds 6 miles above the ground need to be near 35 knots or 40 mph to support an organized severe weather threat and we will be very close on Friday with a nice core of winds north of the river.
My Thoughts On Friday's Severe Weather Risk
The bottom line is the instability and wind energy look sufficient to support organized severe weather threat late Friday / Friday night. I don't see monsterous wind or instability, but it is definitely enough in my opinion to support an organized severe weather threat. The timeframe looks after dark on Friday and Friday night. The main threats look like hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning like what we saw Wednesday. I would be very surprised if we are not in a slight risk from SPC when the issued their updated severe weather assessments.
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