Storm Prediction Center Adjusts Severe Weather Risk

A little earlier today, SPC moved the slight risk into the western part of our area and I did not agree with their forecast at all. This evening they are making significant adjustments to their forecast that look more reasonable to me. Let me get you the latest

 

 

SPC Severe Weather Risk Today/Tonight

SPC has backed off the coverage of their slight risk, backed off the wind threats, and backed off the tornado threat. I agree much more with what they have now.

 

SPC Categorical Severe Weather Risk Today/Tonight

Notice the slight risk now only includes just the edge of our northern counties.

 

 

SPC Hail Risk Today/Tonight

Notice the slight risk contains the 15% chance of hail.

 

 

 

SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today/Tonight

Notice the slight risk area also includes at 15% chance of damaging winds.

 

 

 

SPC Tornado Risk Today/Tonight

Notice SPC has now dropped to a 2% chance of tornadoes. I think that accurately represents the outside chance of a quick spin-up in central Indiana better.

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Tonight

 

The instability this evening remains pathetic at best and the current data supports this. The SPC instability analysis shows absolutely zero instability in our area right now.

 

 

Looking at this just as a meteorologist, we would expect the instability to be very low if there are cool temperatures. When you see the temps, you know the non-existent instability is real.

 

 

Without any instability, this almost eliminates any organized severe weather threat for our area. The latest radar image from StormViewHD shows only 1 severe storm left to our west.

 

 

AdvanceTrak does try to hold these storms together for the western part of our area, but not posing any significant severe weather threat. Remember instability is fuel for storms like gas if fuel for your car. With poor fuel, we would expect these storms to struggle in our area only posing a very isolated severe risk. When you look at the AdvanceTrak images, keep in mind the time stamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

 

 

 

It is simple, I am not overly concerned about an organized severe threat. I cannot rule out the isolated risk, but central Indiana seems to have the best chance of any location in our region.

 

 

 

 

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