Storm Prediction Center Expands Slight Risk A Bit
The Storm Prediction Center has put out their 4 pm update and they have made some small changes to the locations included in the slight risk of severe weather. Here is the latest...
SPC Severe Weather Risk Today/Tonight
In this update, SPC is now including about one county more into our area in the severe weather risk. Most points west of I-65 are now in the slight risk of severe weather.
SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Today/Tonight
Notice the slight risk runs west of I-65 and goes as far east as about Corydon, IN right now.
SPC Hail Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC has the slight risk area in a 15% chance of hail producers.
SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC also has a 15% chance of damaging winds in the slight risk area.
SPC Tornado Risk Today/Tonight
Notice SPC has a 2% chance of tornadoes in the slight risk area.
My Thoughts On Tonight's Severe Weather Risk
Since this is a supplementary update, I strongly encourage you to read my previous blog for my specific thoughts on this severe weather risk. Here is a link...
The latest data from the very reliable high resolution HRRR computer models supports my conclusions earlier. It still looks like this is a perfectly placed severe weather risk by the Storm Prediction Center. I am in full agreement with them on this forecast and you know I am not afraid to say if I don't agree. Here is the latest HRRR forecast...
HRRR Rain Forecast 8 PM
Notice the strong cluster of storms along the IL/IN border.
HRRR Rain Forecast 9 PM
Notice the storms are still strong in the western part of our area by 9pm.
HRRR Rain Forecast 10 PM
Notice the storms are collapsing as they hit the eastern part of the slight risk as they approach Louisville.
HRRR Rain Forecast 11 PM
Notice the cluster is simply turning into normal rain and t-storms late this evening / early overnight.
I feel good about my conclusions in my prior blog...
"As the storms approach our area, they should become more elevated meaning gusty winds and a few hailers in the western part of our area are the primary threats. This does not have the appearance of a major outbreak. I think over western IN/KY and parts of Illinois the threat of severe weather is greater since the storms will be able to work with surface instability. Hail, damaging winds, and even a isolated tornado is possible over western KY/IN and Illinois."
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