Strong thunderstorms developing. Watch likely to be issued!
The storm cell that prompted the Tornado Warning a bit earlier for parts of Nelson, Washington, Marion, LaRue and Taylor Counties has weakened and the National Weathe Service has allowed the warning to expire.
However, StormView HD is picking up some strong thunderstorms in that area and some of them have shown a tendancy to rotate.
Further north, the weather is actually improving for much of the metro area with the heavier, steadier rains coming to an end for now.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area that includes our southeastern counties where a watch will likely be issued. Here's the latest...
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS FCST TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OUTLINED BELOW...IN SERN QUADRANT OF REMAINS OF ISAAC. AMIDST AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL BOWS...EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS...AND A FEW SMALL/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NEAR SRC-NQA-BWG-25 S FTK. NRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE IS TRANSLATING EWD ABOUT 10 KT...WHILE SRN PORTION OVER TN REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY. AIR MASS NW OF THIS LINE WAS DRIER FROM SFC-500 MB...BASED ON RAOB AND SFC ANALYSES...AND CONTAINED MORE VEERED DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MEANWHILE SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND PW 2-2.25 INCHES WERE COMMON TO ITS SE. LOW-LEVEL SRH AND BUOYANCY EACH DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS KY. ALTHOUGH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA STILL IS COVERED BY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER...SUFFICIENT BREAKS AND ADVECTION OF DIABATICALLY HEATED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR FROM SW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MINIMIZE MLCINH THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLUME OF MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG ALONG AND E OF CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NRN MS TO SERN KY. THOSE SOURCES...ALONG WITH VWP INDICATE EFFECTIVE SRH 150-250 J/KG FROM MID TN/AL BORDER NE MSL TO CENTRAL KY ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN GLW-LEX. MORE VEERED/WLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS LEAD TO SMALLER HODOGRAPHS SWWD ACROSS NRN MS AND SWRN TN...BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING OVER SERN TN...NRN MS AND NWRN AL THAT COULD MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS WITH TIME.
I'll be monitoring the situation closely and will be sure to keep the blog updated with the latest.