A Look At AdvanceTrak Regarding Severe Storm On Wednesday Night

I wanted to show you the latest data from AdvanceTrak regarding any severe threat Wednesday night before I leave for the tonight. Remember the wind energy is very favorable for severe weather, but the instability (fuel) is very low late Wednesday. Looking at the raw data, the winds just 5,000 feet above the ground is a bullish 78 mph! That is incredibly strong winds for any time of the year. The wind energy shown is now looking like speed shear only. Remember directional wind shear is the more dangerous wind shear that supports rotating storms. With respect to the fuel for the t-storms, the raw data shows instability values of only 100 units when the storms reach Louisville.

So what does this mean? With such incredible wind energy, normally you shear the storms apart. This type of setup can produce short duration warnings with damaging winds as the primary threat. AdvanceTrak shows a weakening trend as they move through our area. If anyone was to see warnings, it would likely be along and west of I-65. Here is the latest run from AdvanceTrak and keep in mind the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

 

 

 

 

Based on the latest data and the shear power of the wind energy, I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk of severe weather drifted east to I-65. While I don't see a major outbreak at all, a handful of severe warnings look possible with damaging winds as the primary threat. We will be watching this very closely.

 

 

 

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