Almost All Data Points To A Superstorm Hitting US Next Week!
This afternoon has been amazing to watch all the various computer models coming around to a potential "Superstorm" hitting the US! I argued yesterday that the physics and meteorological reasoning support the solution where the EURO computer model has consistently brought this "Superstorm" into the US. Let's dive in.
Superstorm? What is that???
You may have seen the movie called "The Perfect Storm". That movie was based on a real scenario that that occurred on Halloween in 1991. Hurricane Grace was moving to the north at the same time a major mid latitude storm was moving toward the east coast. They combined to create an epic storm that produced wind gusts over 75 mph in the northeast and waves off shore were measured at a record 100 feet!
Another "Superstorm" hit the eastern US in 1993 when the Storm Of The Century produced a tornado outbreak in Florida and 40"+ of snow from the Carolinas all the way through Maine. I was in the the epic Storm Of The Century and received an amazing 43" of snow in 24 hours! The winds were fierce and the snow was coming down at 3" - 4" per hour at times. It was nothing less than amazing!
These epic "Superstorms" are not common as we see these once or twice every 25 years. We haven't really seen a "Superstorm" since 1993, but I think one could form this weekend and early next week.
Just a note... low pressure of the storm is a good measure of the intensity of the Superstorm. For reference the lowest pressure on "The Perfect Storm" was 972 mb and the pressure on the "Storm Of The Century" was 960 mb. Keep these pressures in mind as we look at the potential superstorm this weekend.
The Latest Data Supports A Superstorm Hitting US Early Next Week
How ironic is it that we are talking about a Superstorm hitting the US on the 21st anniversary of The Perfect Storm? The latest spaghetti plots are all pointing toward a Superstorm hitting this US late next week. Remember the spaghetti plots show you all the various computer models and how they are tracking this system. Notice they all are converging on a path into the Mid Atlantic to Northeast US.
The EURO, GDFL, and NGP have all shown this US landfall for days, but the GFS has been the computer model that has argued with the pack at times. Guess what we are seeing now? The GFS is coming inline with the other computer models showing a Superstorm impacing the US near Halloween. Let me show you more...
EURO Surface Pressure Tuesday
Notice the incredibly low pressure on the storm as it hits the US with a minimum pressure of around 948 to 953 mb. This pressure would make this storm stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
GFS Surface Pressure Wednesday
Notice GFS now calls for landfall of a Superstorm near Long Island on Halloween. The pressure from the GFS is near 955 - 959 mb. This pressure would make this storm stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and about the same strength as the 1993 "Storm of the Century. Those green colors are winds near 70 mph!
GDFL Surface Pressure Monday
Notice GDFL computer model is calling for landfall of a Superstorm near the Delmarva peninsula (coastal Delaware) Monday. The pressure from the GFDL is quite frankly scary at an astonishing 939 mb with 113 mph winds! This pressure would make this much storm stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
HWRF Surface Pressure Tuesday
Notice HWRF computer model is calling for landfall of a Superstorm near Long Island as well. The pressure from the HWRF as the storm approaches Long Island 930 mb with brutal winds near 131 mph winds! This pressure would make this much storm stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
My Thoughts On An East Coast Superstorm
First off, for Kentuckiana we are NOT talking about a Superstorm hitting our area. I want to be very clear on that. This will bring breezy conditions through the middle of next week with cold temperatures. A few flurries are even possible in the middle of the week, but this is NOT a Superstorm that will hit the Ohio Valley.
With that said, let's move to the east coast. The GFS and its member computer models are now starting to bend toward the EURO solution. This means a rare "Superstorm" is looking more likely for the Mid Atlantic states through the Northeast. This storm will have the potential to produce destructive coastal surge / flooding, damaging winds, widespread power outages, and flooding rains. The elevated areas from the Berkshires in Massachusetts south the spine of the Appalachian mountains could deal with snow as well. This is an incredibly unique situation where we can talk about a Superstorm and it may be the first since 1993! Notice the last few words from the latest statement from the National Hurricane Center...
"IT IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK."
I will have much more in my analysis later this evening.
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