Evening Update To Severe Storm Potential

As we have moved through the evening we have seen two trends in the storms tonight. They are getting strong over Arkansas where the instability is higher and the severe threat is decreasing over Illinois with only one warning still in effect.

 

 

 

The strongest storm in Illinois is pushing about 35,000 feet.

 

 

What we do know is that the wind energy is highly supportive of severe weather, but the instability is still lacking in our area. Notice the latest analysis of the region shows absolutely no instability in our area.

 

 

The storms will likely have isolated severe for the next 2 hours and then start to really go flat. I think isolated severe reports are still possible west of I-65 and this is something I will be watching closely through the night. Here is a look at AdvanceTrak showing a general weakening trend as the storms move across our area. Keep in mind, the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since isolated severe warnings are still possible tonight, I will be here watching the storms for you. If you want to stay in touch with me even if you are not by a TV, just head to my facebook page and click "LIKE"...

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

Comments

[Alana]

Hey, Mark, how "chilly" are you thinking? Morning bus time, 7 AM, Larue County? and then what to expect for temps as the day goes on? We have a late night band competition in Paris, Ky, Saturday evening, thoughts on temps/rain for then? Thanks in advance!

[Marc]

Alana, are you talking about tomorrow? I have a low of around 50 tonight.

Here is my full extended...

http://www.wdrb.com/Global/Link.asp?L=408805

[Alana]

Yes, asking about tomorrow (in re of the big lettered CHILLY(!) on Advancetrak, 7AM, Thurs), and also wondering about weekend weather. Thanks!

[Marc]

Alana, I have a high of 63 on Saturday. :)

[jay mills]

Storms can possibly hit west of I65? What about Harrison County (Georgetown) ?
Thanks Marc
Jay

[Marc]

Jay, as stated, severe probabilities are very low for our area. I can't rule out an isolated damaging wind gust but not much.

[jay mills]

I've only read every severe thunderstorm ingredients blog for the last year ...

[Marc]

Jay, I hope the blogs are helping understand how the atmosphere works. Fueling up those storms with warm, moist air is so important to severe weather.