Evening Update To Severe Weather Threat
Showers continue to move across our area and we have seen 1 severe t-storm warning issued thus far. I wanted to take you on a radar tour of the area and discuss any severe weather risk that still exists for the evening hours.
Current Look At Radar Trends
I told you earlier today that these showers and t-storms would likely not be that strong since there is no instability. The lack of lighting should re-inforce that no fuel really exists for t-storms. The reason we are in this slight risk has to do with the very large wind energy just about 1 mile above the ground. It doesn't take much to move that wind down to the ground, so any shower that moves through will have gusty winds. Here is the latest.
A cluster of showers continues to move from Owenton, KY to Taylorsville, KY. These showers will have wind gusts to 45 mph with them.
Showers are moving toward Campbellsville. KY to Greensburg, KY. Gusty winds are possible in this line as well.
We also have scattered showers from near Hardinsburg, KY to around Salem, IN. The heavier showers could produce 45 mph winds as well.
Finally a line of showers right on the front is moving from near Vincennes, IN to around Paducah, KY.
My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk
The wind energy remains highly favorable for severe weather, but when you don't have much instability (fuel) you can see the storms just don't have that much kick. Earlier I compared it to a corvette engine... we all know it has a powerful engine, but if you don't feed it the right fuel then the engine won't run. The same works in the atmosphere... we need instability to fuel t-storms to go severe and the lack of any fuel is showing well. We have nearly no instability in our area and that means the severe weather risk is only isolated. Notice the instability is still next to non-existent in our area.
The HIRES data continues to suggest the window for seeing a strong storm will likely close by around 9 pm area wide. AdvanceTrak shows the weakening trend well in the next 3 hours. Keep in mind that the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.
Even with the low instability, I cannot rule out a few rogue severe weather reports and even a quick spin-up. While the tornado threat is not very high, we have seen quick spin-ups from scenarios like this and we will continue to watch it very closely.
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