Is A Freeze Possible During This Cold Spell?
Yesterday, I talked a lot about the conditions that will settle into our area on Sunday night and how they would be ideal for maximum cooling. I want to briefly see if those conditions still look likely for Sunday night and how cold you should expect.
Atmospheric Conditions Sunday Night
To see maximum cooling at night you would ideally want a high pressure sitting right over head and very low dewpoints. This time of the year, we cannot have snow pack so that is out of the equation. In this setup, low dewpoints would qualify as 20s, so lets look and see if this is possible. Notice the high pressure is basically sitting directly on top of us by Monday morning.
The dewpoints drop and the latest data suggests dewpoints in the 20s are likely in southern Indiana.
Monday Morning Freeze?
The data suggests maximum cooling can occur Sunday night / Monday morning. The temperatures 1 mile above the ground will support lows near of slightly below freezing in particular north of the river. This means a frost is near guaranteed and a freeze could occur north and east of Louisville. Looking at the latest data, we see a bias to a little warmer conditions in the metro, but outside of the city it will approach freezing north of the river. Keep in mind, the timestamp and name of the computer model is in the top right part of each image.
Looking through the data and the setup, I think a frost is the greatest concern with a few reaching freeze conditions. This may not meet criteria for a hard freeze over most of the area, but it will definitely be cold. Keep the coats ready for the weekend and early next week!
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