Is This Winter Going To Be Colder With More Snow? Details Inside...
I think the lack of a winter in 2011-2012 has a lot of people hoping for a bit more snow this winter. While I am not ready to make a winter forecast yet, the CPC does put out 3 month forecasts and I wanted to show you their latest winter forecast.
Climate Prediction Center Winter Forecast
The Climate Prediction Center has their December, January, and February forecast out and since these months are defined as the meteorological winter, it is worth taking a look at it this evening. CPC is forecasting a warm winter for our area.
CPC Winter Forecast Temperatures
Notice CPC has a medium (or 40% probability) of a warmer than normal winter. For those that love snow, this would not be what you want to see.
CPC Winter Forecast Precipitation
CPC has a medium (or 40% probability) of a drier than normal winter. Once again, this is not what snow lovers want to hear.
My Thoughts On Winter
CPC makes a statement in their winter forecast package mentioning some of the uncertainties within their winter forecast right now. The El Niño was forecast to become more estabilished by most computer models only 1 month ago and now those long range models have backed off a lot. That means its impact is highly questionable right now. This is the one of the major reasons that I am not ready to make a winter forecast yet. I am interested to see how this evolves over the next month.
Beyond El Niño, we still have a monster drought in the central US. Drought modified patterns always lead to warmer than normal weather. Notice how much real estate is cover by drought in the central US.
The large drought areas would absolutely modify air masses quickly as they moved over our area. Traditionally, this creates a pattern that will not allow long duration cold spells to exist. I want to see how the drought plays out over then next 30 days before locking into a winter forecast.
All in all, I feel there are some critical areas that are still in question for winter, so I will hold off for another month or so before I post my winter forecast. For me, I would rather give an accurate forecast rather than throwing darts and trying to be first. We will keep an eye on things and I will have blog updates in the coming month.
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