Late Update To Storm Track On East Coast Superstorm

I know there are immediately going to be a lot of questions about how this potential Superstorm hitting the eastern US will affect Kentuckiana. To start things off, I want to give you the details on how this will affect our area, then move onto the latest data regarding an east coast landfall.

 

Kentuckiana Impacts...

 

In Kentuckiana, we will see the coldest air of this fall season from this storm. It will create breezy conditions here with afternoon winds of 15 - 25 mph and potentially a hard freeze Monday and Tuesday of next week. Highs will fight to get out of the 40s from Monday and Tuesday and the warm-up will be very slow. This means our Trick or Treaters will need to be dressed for full winter cold. Notice the GFS temperatures early next week and keep in mind the time stamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

 

 

 

 

New Data Regarding Where The East Coast Superstorm Goes...

 

Since this is such a big story, I wanted to give a quick look at some of the latest data on how this Superstorm will affect the east coast. My prior blog has a ton of info on all the computer models per the afternoon runs. You can find a lot of info here...

 

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2012/10/massive-storm-to-bring-80-mph-winds-snow-flooding-to-the-us.html

 

As of the 11 PM advisory, the National Hurricane Center has Sandy as a 90 mph category 1 hurricane right now. As this storm moves to the north, the NHC briefly weakens the system, then reintensifies it as it appoaches the east coast with very large wind field of 80 mph winds! The difference between  a tropical and hybrid low like this is the size of the wind field. These hybrids can have destructive winds over incredibly large areas and much of the reason we call them Superstorms. Here is the latest track from the NHC and I want you to notice it keeps the "H" for hurricane until landfall near New Jersey...

 

 

The GFS is really the only reliable computer model that has come in this evening so far, so lets peak in. The GFS has been the computer model favoring the further north landfall and it is continuing that trend. Here is the latest...

 

GFS Computer Model Pressure Early Next Week

Notice the GFS is now forecasting a central pressure of 964 mb as the storm makes landfall. That pressure is higher meaning a less intense storm than prior forecasts. With that said, this pressure is on par with the 1993 "Storm Of The Century" that bottomed at 960 mb. Notice the waffling GFS is now showing landfall near Long Island / Rhode Island / Massachusetts.

 

 

 

My Thoughts On The Late Data Rolling In...

 

The GFS has shown very little skill thus far with this storm merger. It has ignored the Omega block in the north Atlantic that is a key component in creating this mega storm, shown erratic landfall locations, and still shows major run-to-run inconsistency. On the other hand, the EURO has been exceptional. Unfortunately the EURO run is not in at this point, so I feel we need to still strongly give consideration to it's latest intensity and landfall location. To refresh you, here is the latest EURO landfall location and intensity...

 

The EURO is inline with the National Hurricane intensity with widespread 80 - 90 mph winds moving onshore near the Delmarva Peninsula of Delaware early next week.

 

Confidence continues to increase that this Superstorm is going to happen. The impacts will include large tidal surges, coastal errosion and flooding, inland flooding, and damaging winds with widespread power outages along the east coast. This is a dangerous and potentially costly storm that will impact the US early to mid next week. We will continue to hone in on the main impact zone in the coming days as "Frankenstorm" approaches the US nearly 21 years to the day after "The Perfect Storm" hit this US in 1991.

 

 

 

If you ever have any questions, please drop by my facebook for a great discussion on this storm! Just follow the link below to my facebook page and click "LIKE"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

Comments

[Brian Martin]

Uno momento mi scusi Marco,

Marc as a Louisvillian working in Italy...I have a question regarding TS Sandy.

My wife is flying home on Monday connecting through NY JFK ...
Would you suggest returning home to Louisville on Sunday rather than risk delays in NY?

Thanx for your enthusiastic approach to weather as you make it so much educational.

Brian

[Janice Money]

My sister is supposed to leave Baltimore to fly to Louisville next Wednesday. What are her chances of being cancelled? I really need this visit.

[Marc]

@Janice, there is a real concern about delays early next week.

[Marc]

Brian, it is going to be very difficult going through any east coast airport early next week. Unfortunately this storm will be very large.

Thanks for following the blog. :)