Latest Data Regarding Superstorm Landfall In US!
Since this blog will be a supplementary blog, I want to refer you to my previous blog for impacts specifically here in Kentuckiana and for a better description of what a Superstorm is. Check out my last blog for those details...
In this blog, I am getting in new data from a few of the computer models that I wanted to share with you along with the latest from the National Hurricane Center per their 5 PM Advisory. Let's start there.
National Hurricane Center 5 PM Update
The truth is that Sandy as we now know it is getting torn apart by wind shear. Hurricanes like light winds above them so the t-storms can grow very tall around the center of the hurricane. As Sandy begins to phase with the storm system over our area we will likely see a brief 24 weakening of the system. Right now you see the center of Sandy is basically exposed with all the t-storms to the north and west of the center.
The latest info from the National Hurricane Center has confirmed that. Winds are down to 75 mph and the pressure is near steady.
As the storm lifts to the north and the phasing occurs with the storm over our area, we expect this storm to "bomb out". A "bombing" storm means that the pressure falls at rates greater than 24 mb in 24 hours. This kind of explosive development is expected in the 24 - 60 hour timeframe. The NHC now brings this hybrid Superstorm into the New Jersey coast early Tuesday morning with sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts like to near 100. This will be a VERY large system with hurricane force winds extending hundreds of miles away from the center.
Latest Computer Model Data
I have to say the data that continues to roll in this evening is painting a concerning picture for New Jersey. There are going to be jogs in the data over the next few days before landfall, but right now it is starting to look like New Jersey could be the impact zone for this storm. The problem with this type of landfall is that the right side of the storm will be the worst and that means this Superstorm will get dangerously close to New York City. Considering the NYC area is the most populous area in the country raises a lot of concerns. Should this go into northern New Jersey / NYC, this could be a major problem. With that said, let's dive into the latest...
EURO Surface Pressure Early Next Week
The EURO continues to show a bullish storm! The incredibly low pressure on the storm at landfall 940 mb as it strikes southern New Jersey. This pressure would make this storm much stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
GFS Surface Pressure Early Next Week
The GFS is forecasting a worst case scenario taking this storm full force into New York City. The GFS is dropping the pressure to a minimum of 950 mb. This pressure would make this storm much stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and stronger than the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
HWRF Surface Pressure Early Next Week
The HWRF is also showing a historic storm. The pressure on the storm hits an amazing low pressure of 926 mb as the storm makes landfall in southern New Jersey. This pressure would make this storm much stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
GDFL Surface Pressure Early Next Week
The GDFL agrees on this being a historic Superstorm. It is forecasting a minimum pressure on the storm at landfall 938 mb as it strikes the Delmarva peninsula in Delaware. This pressure would make this storm much stronger than "The Perfect Storm" and the 1993 "Storm of the Century.
All the data continues to point toward a historic storm hitting from Delaware to New Jersey to Long Island. I think New Jersey looks like the most likely strike zone right now. This is potentially a very dangerous landfall location which would have major effects in New York City and Philadelphia, PA. This storm will likely carry 60 - 80 mph sustained winds and gusts up to near 100 mph. The problem with a hybrid or extratropical Superstorm like this is the size of the wind field. It could have hurricane force winds that extend 200 miles away from the center. This means a large area could havea storm surge combining with an astromical high tide (full moon Monday) creating coastal flooding, surge destruction, and errosion. The winds will create widespread tree damage resulting in a huge number of power outages. The rain will be torrential on this storm, so flooding again will be a problem for the entire mid Atlantic and Northeast states. Finally, heavy / wet snow could accumulate over a foot in the high terrain of West Virginia / southern PA knocking out power to our friends to the east. Notice the GFS shows a bullseye of snow on this part of the storm.
This has the potential to be a historic storm with a large area of damage. There is a part of me that cannot believe what I am seeing in the data right now. A Superstorm of this power hitting the wrong part of the northeast will have enormous consequences for the entire country. Take a look at the NWS wording from Taunton, Massachusetts.
"THIS COULD BE A VERY CATASTROPHIC AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEIGHBORING LOCALITIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED. DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES /LIKELY FOR DAYS/ WOULD BE ANTICIPATED. WITH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST SWELL AND THE NEAR-PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM...WE WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. SUBSTANTIALLY SEVERE BEACH EROSION ALONG ALL BEACHES WOULD BE A LIKELY OUTCOME. A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LEAD TO MORE INTERIOR FLOODING"
We will continue to have updates through the weekend as the landfall location becomes clear.
If you ever have any questions, please drop by my facebook for a great discussion on this storm! Just follow the link below to my facebook page and click "LIKE"!