Severe Weather Possible This Weekend?

The Storm Prediction Center has areas to our west in a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday. They are emphacizing that some of the conflicting data precludes them from increasing the risk, but I suspect it will go higher in the coming days. The question is will this get to our area?

 

Severe Weather Potential This Weekend

 

SPC has rightfully placed much of Missouri and Iowa in a slight risk of severe weather on Saturday. Here is the specific location...

 

 

The wind energy is absolutely ferocious on Saturday and the instability looks like it will be sufficient over Missouri for severe weather. The NAM computer model has the ability to put parameters together and decide if it thinks a significant tornado could occur in a value referred to as the "Significant Tornado Parameter". Looking at this piece of data for Saturday shows a bullseye near Kansas City.

 

 

Could any of that severe weather get here? A few things to note, the GFS is kicking this storm into our area Sunday morning while this is out of the range of the NAM. The origin of this low is over the southern California as you can see...

 

 

Having forecasted these types of lows a lot, in my experience the GFS moves the low pressure systems way too fast. You actually get a hint of that when you compare the GFS to the slower NAM. Notice where the precipitation is located by 8 pm Saturday on each computer model.

 

GFS Precipitation Late Saturday

Notice the core of the precipitation is extends from northeast Missouri into the southwestern part of Missouri.

 

 

NAM Precipitation Late Saturday

Notice the NAM has the core of the precip displaced about 300 miles west over northwest Missouri through Oklahoma.

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather This Weekend

 

I believe the NAM timing is better because I have yet to see the GFS really every get the speed of storms coming from the desert southwest correct. If the NAM is accurate, then the storms simply could not move from western Missouri all the way here in in a severe form Saturday night.

 

The second side of that is that the core of stronger winds would take longer to get here and if storms re-fire Sunday afternoon along this front there could be better mid level wind energy. If the slower solution verifies, I think a few severe could indeed occur in our area in particular south of the river Sunday afternoon. The most likely threat in a scenario like this would be a few damaging wind producers. It doesn't look like a severe weather event, but it could produce some severe here. Let's keep an eye on this setup as I time out the speed of the storm system, then we can isolate if any severe threat could  materialize in our area Sunday.

 

 

 

 

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Comments

[Nina]

My Dad got me into weather when I was around 13. Since then, I've watched SEVERAL weathermen between Chicago and our area. (I used to live in the Chicago land area. Though I haven't actually lived there for years, I've visited. And I also have family in different places in the Tri-state that I visit frequently.) You are the ONLY weatherman that has actually tried to "TEACH" the weather. I not only think you're the BEST weatherman to watch, I notice you're the most accurate too. Had to give credit where credit is due. Thanks!

[Marc Weinberg]

Nina, that is nice of you to say. I know we have had some legends in Louisville like Tom Wills and I really hope to accomplish as much as these guys by the time my career is done. My goal when I got into TV was to help people during severe weather and prove weathermen can actually make accurate forecasts. It seems like the running joke is that meteorologists have the only job that you need to be accurate 50% of the time. LOL!