Severe Weather Risk Late Wednesday? My Assessment Inside!
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their severe weather risk for Wednesday to basically the western edge of our area. I want to assess that threat and talk about when to expect those storms in my blog. First a reminder of the SPC risk location...
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk
The slight risk is now literally 10 miles west of our area and the entire area now has severe weather probabilities per the latest SPC forecast. Have a look...
SPC Categorical Severe Weather Risk 7 AM Wednesday - 7 AM Thursday
Notice the slight risk now banks up to our western counties, so this is a lot closer than yesterday.
SPC Probabilistic Severe Weather Risk 7 AM Wednesday - 7 AM Thursday
Notice the 5% now covers our entire area and the 15% chance of severe weather banks up against our western counties.
Severe Weather Discussion
We spoke in depth yesterday about the forcing and wind energy is more than sufficient for severe weather, but our area was highly lacking instability. Since nothing has changed with the wind energy, then I will solely focus on the instability in this blog.
Dewpoints normally need to be above 60 degrees to support severe weather in our area. Looking around the area, there are no dewpoints above 60 ... anywhere.
So how do you get instability with no moisture? That is a good question and the answer is you don't. Take a look at the NAM and GFS instability forecasts late Wednesday.
NAM Instability Late Wednesday
Notice there are instability values up to 500 west of our area, but no instability whatsoever in our area.
GFS Instability Late Wednesday
Notice the GFS shows not an ounce of instability in our area.
My Thoughts On A Severe Weather Risk Late Wednesday / Early Thursday
The truth is my feeling about our severe weather threat remains the same for tomorrow night. I see good wind energy, solid lift from the cold front, and absolutely pathetic instability in our area. Updrafts cannot be sustained when there is no instability. Since the updraft is the lifeline of the t-storm, this means the severe weather threat is indeed very low. The 5% from SPC is just there to cover a rogue severe storm or two and I cannot fault them for that. The wind energy is very high and non-t'storm winds could gust to 35 mph. The fact is this is not a severe weather outbreak in any way, shape, or form.
AdvanceTrak again is doing a great job showing when the storms arrive in our area and the intensity of the storms. The window for storms is from about 10 pm Wednesday to 6 am Thursday. When looking at AdvanceTrak, notice the timestamp is on the top right part of each image. Watch how the storms basically flop when they get to our area.
Regardless, we will be watching the storm system closely and update you as necessary.
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