Timeline For T-Storms Tonight & My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk
Earlier, I posted the severe weather risk per SPC for our area. They did keep us in the 5% chance of damaging winds, but the slight risk cuts off a bit west of the Indiana / Illinois line. Here is a look at the risk to refresh your memory.
Severe Weather Discussion
Instability is the name of the game today since we know there is good forcing and a fierce wind field across our area. If there is instability, then we have problems and if there is no instability then the storms will go flat and literally die once they leave Illinois. Notice the instability values are solid across central Missouri right now, but absolutely pathetic in our area.
The result of the higher instability, solid wind energy, and good forcing is severe weather in Missouri right now.
As those storms move in our direction, one would expect the reds and purples to disappear from the radar as an indication of weakening storms. Let's use AdvanceTrak to see if that indeed will happen. Remember the timestamp is on the top right part of each image. Watch the distinct collapse of the storms as they move across our area.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Coverage
Tonight is one of the best examples you will get to see how all three severe weather ingredients are necessary for a severe weather event. When one is missing, it is almost impossible for storm systems to overcome. The weak to non-existent instability means the storms will simply get sheared apart by the powerful mid level flow and severe chances are very low. SPC's 5% chance of damaging winds looks acceptable west of I-65 and it is hard for me to find any fault with their forecast tonight.
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