Update To Rain Timeline For Oaks / Derby Date ... Some Of Us Could See 3" By Early Next Week!
You know by now rain chances are high on Derby day by this time. Jeremy Kappell posted a timeline for the rain in his blog a little earlier tonight. Here is a link to that blog...
Now I want to talk about how much rain could fall on Derby day. Let's dive in.
Rainfall Totals On Derby Day
Almost all the data is showing rain on Derby day to some extent and our chance is very high. The EURO computer model is the only model not showing a lot of rain during the day and quite frankly I think it is wrong. The GFS / NAM / AdvanceTrak all show a lot of rain on Derby day. To read the graphics more easily, I will show you the rain totals at 7 am then 7 pm on Saturday. Keep in mind that the post for the Derby is 6:24 pm. You will see the computer model name on the top right part of each image and time.
NAM Rainfall For Derby Day
Notice the NAM shows around 0.8" during the races on Saturday.
GFS Rainfall For Derby Day
Notice the GFS shows a lot of rain on Saturday as well. It has around 0.7" during the races on Derby Day.
EURO Rainfall For Derby Day
The EURO continues to show only low totals of near 0.1" for Saturday.
AdvanceTrak Rainfall For Derby Day
Notice AdvanceTrak is spitting out about 0.9" of rain for Derby Day.
The forecasters at WPC (formerly HPC) are hedging their bets on the GFS/NAM forecast. They are showing near 0.75" of rain on Saturday as well.
Rain Totals Through Tuesday
The rainfall totals remain very bullish from the GFS and EURO through Tuesday. This could very well be a problem and could cause some flooding along some of our streams and rivers through Tuesday. Much of that would depend on how fast it falls. Here are the totals from the computer models and please note the time is on the top right part of each image.
WPC continues to throw down the gauntlet on this storm as they are forecasting 2" - 3" of rain for our area through Tuesday! That is a lot of rain!
My Thoughts On Derby Day
I can say it simply... the rain chance is through the roof on Derby Day. It does appear there will be rain while you are at the track and some of it could be heavy at times. I strongly urge bringing some type of raincoat for Saturday if you are going trackside. The raincoat will also help since it will be a cool day as temperatures struggle to get out of the 50s.
The storm as a whole will be an extremely slow mover. That means there will be pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times from Saturday through Tuesday. I feel all the data is solid right now and I feel a 2" - 3" rainfall should be fairly widespread in our area through the middle of next week. The NE part of our area could see closer to 1" while the central and southern part of our area will get the heaviest rain. Some river flooding is possible and we will monitor that closely.
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