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66 posts from August 2016

08/31/2016

Hermine Could Become a Hurricane before Making US Landfall!

Tropical Storm Hermine was named earlier today over the Central Gulf of Mexico and it's taking aim at the Panhandle of Florida. 

Tropics

As of 5 pm EDT, the storm was located about 350 miles WSW of Tampa Florida and had maximum sustained winds of approximately 45 mph with a central pressure of 1004 mb.  

The storm is moving towards the NNE at roughly 7 mph and looks to strengthen to near hurricane strength before making landfall somewhere along the Panhandle of Florida perhaps near Apalachicola by early Friday. 

Tropics track

Both Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued.  Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coast in the warning area Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast. The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia.

Ss01

The potential area of UP TO 6 foot storm surge covers northern part of Apalachee Bay including coastal sections of Wakulla, Jefferson and Taylor Counties.   

Ss02

If Hermine becomes a hurricane before making landfall, it will be the first to do so since Hurricane Author grazed the Outer Banks of North Carolina in July 2014.

1585v1_20140703-HURArthurCNOAA satellite image of Hurricane Arthur, July 3, 2014. (Credit: NOAA.)

The US hasn't been struck by a major hurricane since Wilma back in October 2005... a streak of more than 10 years.

Let's hope we keep that going.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Changes A Comin'

A cold front is positioned to our NW, in central Indiana. This front and an upper level low are going to fire off a few showers and storms today. This cold front is also going to sweep through the area and drop our temperatures and the dew point temperatures as well. The cooler air will arrive right on time for "Meteorological Fall", which is based on average temperatures and begins tomorrow on September 1st! 

8-31 surface map

8-31 wed cold front

Our moist (humid) and hot air mass will be replaced by much lower temperatures and it will be a nice break from the sticky conditions! By tomorrow, the front will be well to our south. 

8-31 thu cold front

We've already seen a few showers and storms this morning and early afternoon. They will continue to develop throughout the rest of the afternoon and into this evening. Most of the activity will diminish by late tonight. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact location of where storms will develop today. There is about a 50 percent chance for showers and storms, meaning many will miss out on the showers and storms today. Although there is decent instability, (because of the heat and humidity) there is not much lift or wind shear aloft, so the severe weather chances are pretty low. Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds (non severe) are possible though in some of the cells.  You can scroll through the Advancetrak images below, to get an idea of the coverage for the rest of today and tonight. 

8-31 430

8-31 8 pm

Notice the rain will begin to wane (teehee) around 10 - 12 am tonight. As we get into Thursday morning, we will begin to see some decreasing clouds as well as decreasing temperatures. 

8-31 1030 pm

Did you happen to notice the location of the front? It is strung across the midwest. You can see where fronts are location in a variety of ways, including wind direction and temperature changes. Look north and west on the image below. This was from earlier this morning but it still gives us the right idea. It was 82 degrees in Louisville, 71 in Chicago, and 66 in Minneapolis! This cooler air to our north will replace our muggy and hot atmosphere once the front slides through the area. 

8-31 northern temps

It will be cooler for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. However, this is not the end of the 90s. We will begin to warm back up by next week. The coolest day looks to be on Friday. Temperatures will be in the low 60s (lows) and low 80s (highs) for metro, where it is always a bit warmer. Other locations may not break upper 70s and overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s! #Chilly

The four graphics below are all of raw model data. The GFS is running a bit cooler than the NAM model, but both are only a few degrees apart. The forecast for the end of the week is a trend that's only a few degrees below the norm for the beginning of September. Average highs are about 86 degrees in Louisville. 

8-31 gfs friday am

8-31 nam fri am

8-31 gfs friday pm

8-31 nam fri pm

Not only will it cool off, but the dew point temperature will also be lowered. That means it will not feel as muggy for a few days! By Friday and Saturday the dew points will be in the FIFTIES. 60 degrees is a magical muggy dew point temp. That's when you begin to notice the humidity. But it's all relative. Because we are used to dew points in the mid to upper 70s, a 60 degree dew point will feel so comfortable and even better on Friday and Saturday. 

Screen Shot 2016-08-31 at 2.19.59 PM

Marc and Rick will have the latest info about the forecast including when we will warm up AND when is the next chance for more showers and storms on WDRB News this evening. 

 

-Meteorologist Katie McGraw

08/30/2016

FALL OUTLOOK: Are We Done With The Heat?

Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. Thursday is the first day of 'meteorological fall' which includes September, October, and November. A shot of cooler air is heading our way this week and it may have you wondering if the heat is over. Well, the Climate Prediction Center recently issued their Three-Month Outlook and it keeps us ABOVE NORMAL...

 

Off01_temp

Based on these probabilities, our temperatures would likely stay warmer than average during the fall season. This doesn't imply that we can't get short duration blasts of cooler air, it just means when you average out all of the days it yields above normal readings. It's also important to note that the average high for September 1st is 87 degrees and that number drops to 51 degrees by November 30th! 

While it's very difficult to predict rainfall amounts with skill three month into the future, CPC does have the southern half of our area in their BELOW NORMAL category for the next three months...

Off01_prcp

Instead of just taking the CPC's word for it, let's investigate a bit more. The latest CFS (GFS based climate forecast model) is indicating the 2-meter temperature monthly mean should be above normal. You can see that trend holding on month by month in the graphics below. Based on this data, the CPC's forecast for ABOVE NORMAL temperatures makes sense!

Sep

Oct

Nov

It looks like we aren't completely done with the 90's yet, but as you would expect their days are numbered as we get deeper into the fall season. Drier conditions may also replace the rainy pattern for some, but this trend is something we need to keep a closer eye on. Marc and I will be on WDRB tonight with more on the fall preview and storm chances this week!

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Arrival of a Potent Cold Front to bring Thunderstorms Tomorrow!

The arrival of a MUCH ANTICIPATED cold front looks to bring a merciful end to our string of 90 degree days and will also bring us a good bet for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Satrad

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT starts us off dry and mild in the morning on Wednesday. 

At1

Showers begin to develop across Central Indiana by midday.

At2

Scattered showers and storms go up early afternoon for Southern Indiana.

At3

Activity reaches Ohio River by mid to late afternoon.

At4

Highest chance for storms look to occur between 3 and 7 pm in the metro area.  

At5

Showers and storms fade away by late evening.

At6

Will severe weather be possible?

While a few strong storms capable of some gusty winds or small hail can't be ruled out, wind shear will be lacking and widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  

Be sure to join Marc and Rick with a full update tonight on WDRB News. 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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08/29/2016

11 Years Ago: Deadliest and Most Destructive Hurricane in Modern Times!

 

Exclusive (Emmy Award) video shot by Mike Theiss from ground zero of Hurricane Katrina's historic 28 foot storm surge that ripped through Gulfport, Mississippi on August 29th, 2005. This video has a time stamp to give a complete and accurate timeline from the Holiday Inn beachfront hotel located directly on the beach in Gulfport. Also, included are shots from the Theiss-Device which is a camera housing designed by Mike to be placed in a place that would be too dangerous from any human to survive. This 13 minute video will give you a sense of just how bad Katrina was on the Gulf Coast without actually putting you in harms way !!!

To see the entire version of this video about 2 hours in duration please purchase the DVD "Battle at the Beachfront". http://www.BattleAtTheBeachfront.com

We hope this documentation helps enforce a sense of storm awareness and a respect for the power of mother nature. When local officials ask you to evacuate just think of this video and ask yourself do you want to risk being put in a situation like this ?

YouTube Video Via Ultimate Chase

Katrina is the deadliest and costliest US hurricane in modern times.  The storm claimed the lives of more than 1,200 people (mainly in New Orleans) and caused more than $100 Billion in damage.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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08/28/2016

VIDEO: Severe Flash Flooding in Cincy!!!

While parts of our area saw heavy rain today, our neighbors up the Ohio River had it much worse!  Take a look at some of these rainfall estimates in the Cincinnati area today. 

Cincy flooding

The Cincy area got pummelled with 2, 3 and locally up to 5 inches of torrential rainfall from some slow moving thunderstorms today! 

Unfortunately, this resulted in some REALLY BAD flash flooding in some areas including in the St. Benard area. 

Sophie Walden video this DRAMATIC scene from her second flood balcony earlier this evening!

 

Published on Aug 28, 2016

I was eating dinner with my family and looked at the window and saw this... Like and subscribe for support! Also, you should comment because I'll reply.

YouTube Video via Sophie Walden

That poor girl!  This is the second time in the last month that the Cincy area has been pounded by flash flooding.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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08/27/2016

PECOS HANK: Genius Storm Chaser Composes Music Too!

 

Incredibly colorful supercell time lapse with a white rope tornado, brilliant double rainbow and intense lightning activity as this storm journeys through the magic hour lighting. To license footage contact hankschyma@yahoo.com ..... This video is composed of over 5000 still images animated to create a time lapse. Several events of isolated thunderstorm activity are used to tell the story of a single thunderstorm and associated phenomenon. All storms were photographed between April 1st and July 1st of 2015 in tornado Alley except the rope tornado footage from 5-17-13. The music "Pillbox" was composed by Pecos Hank Schyma and originally recorded by Southern Backtones and can be purchased online everywhere. The narration is by the multi-talented Bee Xoomsai. Contact her at BeeXoomsai.com

Via Pecos Hank

This guy is possibly a genius.  Not only does he chase storms, shoots them and edits like a wiz, but he also apparently composes music on the side too!  Be sure to follow him on YouTube if you don't already.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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How Rainy Has it REALLY Been?

We've gotten a lot of comments and questions, on social media, about whether or not this summer has been wetter than normal.  And the answer is yes, but it has not been THE wettest summer ever. To be exact, this has been the 19th wettest on record! We have seen 34 days of measurable rain too! The wettest summer ever was the summer of 1882, with 48 days of rain. The persistent rain this year has resulted in lush greenery and more noticeably (at least to lawn-less me) the high humidity.

827 rainy summer

One particular question we received, on our WDRB Weather page, was about this summer vs last summer and which year was wetter. A woman named Debbie, was debating with her friends about which year had more rain. I took a screen shot of the question below.

Just debbie

I responded to this post and basically said "it depends!"  That's because if you look at the summer as a whole (since June 1st), Debbie's friends were right. But if you are basing this on recent memory, like the month of August, Debbie would be right! 

The data I am using comes from NWS at the Louisville International Airport. For August 2016 (through today's date) there has been 5.68'' of rain. For August 2015 (through today's date) there was 3.47'' -  so more than two inches of rain this year!

827 august

However, since June 1, 2016 (through today) we have seen 14.58'' and last year for the same time frame we had seen 18.94''! So more than 4 inches of rain for summer 2015 than this year! 

827 2015 vs 2016

We could see a few spotty showers and storms today (adding to the rain total and high humidity). Our best chance early will be for our northern counties, and then during the heat of the day, we could see some pop up further south! To find out when we will see some drier days, tune into WDRB News with Jeremy this evening! 

-Meteorologist Katie McGraw

08/26/2016

A Spectacular Conjunction of Venus and Jupiter Occurs This Weekend!

Venus and Jupiter are converging for a spectacular conjunction in the sky on August 27th. The planets roughly line up about once a year, but usually not as close. This year they will appear to be separated by 1/15th of a degree!

1

We have our Earthly vantage point to thank for this display since the planets are still more than 416,399,477 miles apart. Head outside just after sunset this Saturday and look west. Venus is the brighter planet. Check out the video below for more info...

 

Video Courtesy:  ScienceCasts: A Spectacular Conjunction of Venus and Jupiter - YouTube ScienceAtNASA

 

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Mars Looks Just Earth!

Nope, not Arizona! It's actually our neighbor in space, the "red planet" of Mars!

Check out this 360-degree panorama that was captured by the Mast Camera on NASA's Curiosity Mars rover as the rover neared features called "Murray Buttes" on lower Mount Sharp reminiscent of the U.S. Southwest. (Be sure to use your mouse to move the image around!)

 

Video Courtesy: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

The view combines more than 130 images taken on August 5, 2016, during the afternoon of the mission's 1,421st sol, or Martian day, by Mastcam's left-eye camera. This date also was the fourth anniversary of Curiosity's landing.

The dark, flat-topped mesa seen to the left of Curiosity's robotic arm is about 300 feet from the rover's position. It stands about 50 feet high. The horizontal ledge near the top of the mesa is about 200 feet across. An upper portion of Mount Sharp appears on the distant horizon to the left of this mesa.

The relatively flat foreground is part of a geological layer called the Murray formation, which formed from lakebed mud deposits. The buttes and mesas rising above this surface are eroded remnants of ancient sandstone that originated when winds deposited sand after lower Mount Sharp had formed. Curiosity closely examined that layer -- the Stimson formation -- during the first half of 2016 while crossing a feature called "Naukluft Plateau" between two exposures of the Murray formation.

The buttes and mesas of Murray Buttes are capped by material that is relatively resistant to erosion, just as is the case with many similarly shaped buttes and mesas on Earth. The informal naming honors Bruce Murray (1931-2013), a Caltech planetary scientist and director of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.

The scene is presented with a color adjustment that approximates white balancing, to resemble how the rocks and sand would appear under daytime lighting conditions on Earth.

Curious about Curiosity? Visit NASA's website.

Hope to see you bright and early tomorrow morning from 6-9 am!

-Meteorologist Katie McGraw