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56 posts from October 2016

10/31/2016

NOAA: America's Spooktacular October Climate

Halloween marks a tricky time of year for meteorologists and climatologists as autumn is in full swing across the Northern Hemisphere. In the United States, the spooky celebration, well known for its weather variations from year to year, sees normal high temperatures ranging from the 40s to the 80s and normal lows ranging from the teens to the 70s across the contiguous states alone.

Witch-in-front-of-a-full-moon-Halloween-artwork-from-Pixabay

October U.S. Climate Conditions

In fact, many U.S. locations experience drastic temperature swings throughout the month of October. In some years, summer’s warmth can hang on through the month while in others snow and freezing temperatures may make an early appearance. But, overall, the lower 48 states usually see an average temperature of around 54°F for the month.

Temperatures

The contiguous United States saw its warmest October on record in 1963, with an average temperature of 59.4°F. Fourteen states across the Rockies, Great Plains, and Midwest had their warmest October on record that year. Conversely, the country saw its coldest October on record in 1925, with an average temperature of 48.9°F. Overall, Octobers across the contiguous United States have warmed at a rate of about 0.8°F per century since 1895.

October-Average-Maximum-Temperature-Based-on-1981-2010-Climate-Normals

 

October-Average-Minimum-Temperature-Based-on-1981-2010-Climate-Normals

Precipitation

October is also the first month of the cold season that typically brings snow to parts of the nation. The Rockies and parts of the Northern and Central Plains into the Upper Midwest typically observe their first snowfall during the month. Higher elevations in the East have also observed snow in October. Generally, the contiguous United States sees an average of about 2 inches of precipitation during October.

The country saw its driest October on record in 1952, with an overage of just 0.54 inches of precipitation for the lower 48 states. The wettest October on record occurred in 2009, when the country observed an average of 4.29 inches of precipitation. That year, four states through the Mississippi River Valley observed their wettest October on record. Overall, the contiguous U.S. precipitation total during October has increased at a rate of about 0.4 inches per century since 1895.

October-Average-Monthly-Precipitation-Based-on-1981-2010-Climate-Normals

Hurricanes and Tornadoes

October is near the end of the peak of hurricane season in the North Atlantic. During the month, the North Atlantic typically sees 1.9 tropical storms and 1.1 hurricanes each year and 1 major hurricane about every other year. The highest number of tropical storms the North Atlantic has seen in October is six (in 1870, 1887, 1950, and 2005). The basin saw the most October hurricanes in 1870 with six occurring that year. And, the highest number of major hurricanes the basin has seen in October is two (in 1878, 1893, 1894, 1950, 1961, 1964, 1995, and 2005).

Even though hurricane season is winding down in October, several deadly and very costly storms have struck the United States during the month. Ranking as the second costliest hurricane to hit the United States since 1980—second only to Katrina—Superstorm Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on October 29, 2012. Sandy’s impact on major population centers caused widespread interruptions to critical water and electrical services. The storm caused $68.3 billion in damages and 159 fatalities. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 3 storm, causing $23.5 billion in damages and 35 fatalities. Prior to landfall, Wilma went down in history with the lowest central pressure ever recorded (882 mb) as it churned in the Atlantic basin as a Category 5 storm. Hurricane Opal in 1995 was also one of the worst October hurricanes to hit the United States, causing $5.5 billion in damages and 27 fatalities.

Satellite-Image-of-Sandy-Early-Morning-October-30-2012

Tornado activity typically drops off rapidly during October. On average, the United States sees about 61 tornadoes during the month—compared to an average of 276 in May, which is historically the country’s most active month. Despite the low tornado average, large and damaging tornado outbreaks have occurred during October, mostly across the Southern Plains and Southeast. The deadliest October tornado was an F4 spawned by Hurricane Hilda on October 3, 1964, which killed 22 people in Larose, Louisiana.

Map-of-Average-Number-of-October-Tornadoes-in-the-United-States

October 31 Climate Normals for Spooktacular U.S. Locations

In such a geographically and climatologically diverse country, average conditions can vary from day to day and from place to place across the United States. From Death Valley’s heat to frigid temperatures in Devils Lake, the table below shows the normal minimum, average, and maximum temperatures on October 31 for 10 locations with Halloween-themed names, according to our daily 1981–2010 Climate Normals data.

Spookytown

While our Climate Normals provide average temperatures throughout the United States, this Halloween’s actual conditions may vary widely based on weather and climate patterns.

Image and information courtesy NOAA

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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We Are Getting Pictures Of Wide, Brown-Banded Woolly Worms! What Does This Mean For Winter?

It's that time of the year when people start talking about the infamous woolly worm! As you know, a lot of people use the color and pattern of the woolly worm as a predictor for winter weather. Ronda Davis recently sent us this picture from Hillview, KY that shows a wide, brown-banded woolly worm...

Ronda Davis Hillview, KY

Jennifer Green recently found this nearly all brown woolly worm in Mt. Washington, KY...

Jennifer Green Mt. Washington

Shirley Brown came across this wide, brown-banded woolly worm in Wolf Creek, KY...

Shirley Brown Wolf Creek

Finally, Yvonne Merideth captured ANOTHER wide, brown-banded woolly worm...

Yvonne Merideth

Woolly Worm ... Superstition Or Accurate Predictor Of Winter?

Let's start by looking at what a wolly worm is. The woolly worm is actually the tiger moths in the larva stage. The technical name for the woolly worm is Pyrrharctia Isabella. In the late summer / fall these woolly worms start to appear more and more. In case you didn't know, folklore says that thin brown bands on the woolly worms means a harsh winter is coming, wider brown banded woolly worms mean a mild winter,  nearly black woolly worms means a severe winter is coming, and finally the very light brown or white woolly worms mean a snowy winter according to the folklore.

The question remains... can the woolly worm accurately predict winter? There actually was research done in the 1950s for 8 years by Dr. C.H. Curran. At the time, Dr. Curran was the curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York. Dr. Curran found that generally the wider the brown segments on the woolly worm the more mild the winter would be. I think you can see where the folklore was born. Since then, there have been independent tests done and most say the woolly worms are about as accurate at predicting the winter as flipping a coin.

Video Courtesy: Old Farmer's Almanac

In reality, the woolly worm can tell something about the weather, but only the winter past. To understand, we need to look a little more into how woolly worms grow. As the woolly worm grows through spring, they molt which means they shed their skin. Every time they shed their skin, more brown bands can occur. Basically it appears the more brown bands a woolly worm has can be an indicator of the age of each woolly worm or when it started to grow in the prior spring. Entomologist Mike Peters from UMASS says specifically that the colored bands on a woolly worm are "telling you about the previous year('s)" winter, not the upcoming winter.

The bottom line is the woolly worm is folklore and most scientists agree there is no correlation between the brown banding of the woolly worm and the upcoming winter. However, if you do believe in the woolly worm forecast you should prepare for a mild winter with the possibility of wintry episodes!

 

-Rick DeLuca

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It is fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

10/30/2016

TIME-LAPSE VIDEO: Thunderstorm Rolls thru NYC!

So this is what rain looks like...

Decided to do one touristy thing while in New York, so I went up to the One World Observatory today to enjoy the view from up there... Then this happened...

Unfortunately there is some reflection in the window, but other than that it's quite awesome ;-)

YouTube video via Jon Thorvaldsson

 Unfortunately our chances for good rain remain slim for now.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Saturn, The Chameleon?!

Two photos taken from NASA's Cassini spacecraft show the planet Saturn is changing colors! Check out the two different images below. 

The first was taken in November of 2012 and shows hints of blues and greens. 

Nov 12

The second was taken just last month in September of 2016 and has much lighter hues of yellows and oranges. 

Sept 16

They are both natural color images and were taken by the Cassini wide-angle camera. They show the changing appearance of Saturn's north polar region between 2012 and 2016.

Comparison

Scientists are investigating potential causes for the change in color of the region inside the north-polar hexagon on Saturn. The color change is thought to be an effect of Saturn's seasons. In particular, the change from a bluish color to a more golden hue may be due to the increased production of photochemical hazes in the atmosphere as the north pole approaches summer solstice in May 2017. 

Researchers think the hexagon, which is a six-sided jetstream, might act as a barrier that prevents haze particles produced outside it from entering. During the polar winter night between November 1995 and August 2009, Saturn's north polar atmosphere became clear of aerosols produced by photochemical reactions -- reactions involving sunlight and the atmosphere. Since the planet experienced equinox in August 2009, the polar atmosphere has been basking in continuous sunshine, and aerosols are being produced inside of the hexagon, around the north pole, making the polar atmosphere appear hazy today.

Other effects, including changes in atmospheric circulation, could also be playing a role. Scientists think seasonally shifting patterns of solar heating probably influence the winds in the polar regions.

The Cassini mission is a cooperative project of NASA, ESA (the European Space Agency) and the Italian Space Agency. For more information about the Cassini-Huygens mission visit https://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov.

I thought this was really neat! Especially to think about how long it a year is on Saturn with its changing seasons! If you have a topic you would like to see in a blog-- let me know! You can find me on social media with the links below! 

Have a great and safe Halloween! 

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10/29/2016

25 Years Ago Today: THE PERFECT STORM

An enormous extratropical low is creating havoc along the entire Eastern Atlantic Seaboard in this infrared image at 1200 UTC (0700 EST) on October 30, 1991. Labelled the "perfect storm" by the National Weather Service, the storm sank the swordfishing boat Andrea Gail, whose story became the basis for the currently best-selling novel "The Perfect Storm" by Sebastian Junger. A little-known and bizarre ending came to this monster, which came to be known as the Halloween Storm. To tell this incredible story in its entirety, the Satellite's Eye Art Gallery spans two subject headings (Extratropical Cyclones and Hurricanes)!

HalstmpkThe color-enhanced infrared image of 1200 UTC October 30, 1991 depicts a monster storm off the Eastern Seaboard, which was described by the National Weather Service as the "perfect storm." In this image, the storm was at its peak intensity. The storm became subtropical thirty hours later, just before the inner core of the storm developed into a topical storm and later an unnamed hurricane.

History of the Storm

Late October and November are months with weather in rapid transition in the eastern U.S. To the west, large fresh cold air masses from Canada begin to envelope the Midwest on a regular basis. To the east, the Atlantic Ocean is slower to lose its stored summer heat than the continent, and hurricanes sometimes form over the warm waters. The contrast between two very dissimilar air masses often results in massive storms just offshore of North America. These tempests, called "Nor'easters" in the Atlantic states, have sunk many ocean vessels, and this storm lived up to the reputation of being severe.

On October 28, 1991, a extratropical cyclone developed along a cold front which had moved off the Northeast coast of the U.S. By 1800 UTC, this low was located a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nova Scotia. With strong upper air support, the low rapidly deepened and became the dominant weather feature in the Western Atlantic. Hurricane Grace, which had formed on October 27 from a pre-existing subtropical storm and was initially moving northwestward, made a hairpin turn to the east in response to the strong, westerly deep-layer mean flow on the southern flank of the developing extratropical low. Grace was a large system and it was already generating large swells ranging in size from about 15 feet offshore of North Carolina to about 10 feet near the Florida coastline.

HalstgraceFigure 1 Hurricane Grace Being Absorbed IR: 18 UTC October 29 

As the low pressure continued to deepen on October 29, Grace became only a secondary contributor to the phenomenal sea conditions which developed over the Western Atlantic during the next few days. At 1800 UTC on the 29th, the vigorous cold front from the extratropical low undercut and quickly destroyed Grace's low level circulation east of Bermuda (Note the red and yellow area east of Charleston, SC in Figure 1). The remnant mid- and upper-level moisture from Grace became caught up in the outer part of the extratropical storm center's circulation, far from the storm's center. By the next day these remnants had become indistinguishable. The center of the extratropical low drifted southeastward and then southwestward, deepening all the time. It reached peak intensity of 972 mb and maximum sustained winds of 60 knots at 1200 UTC on October 30, when it was located about 340 n mi south of Halifax, Nova Scotia (See Event Discussion image above). After reaching peak intensity on October 30, the low retrograded southwestward on October 31 (Note swirl off Delmarva Peninsula in Figure 2), and then southward as the central pressure rose to about 998 mb by 0000 UTC on November 1.

HalstweakFigure 2 Weakening Halloween Storm IR: 12 UTC October 31 

65 Knot Winds/ 39 Foot Wave Heights

During the early phase of the storm's history, a strong high pressure center extended from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the Appalachians into Greenland. Strong winds were generated from the tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure center in eastern Canada (1043 mb) and the surface low. Phenomenal seas and strong winds and waves along the eastern U.S. coastline occurred at this time. Several vessels passed close to the extratropical storm center on October 30 and reported winds of 50-60 knots. NOAA buoy 44011 located at 41.1 degrees N, 66.6 degrees W reported maximum sustained winds of 49 kt with gusts to 65 kt and a significant wave height of 39 feet near 1500 UTC. Buoy 44008 located at 40.5 degrees N, 69.5 degrees W reported maximum sustained winds of 53 kt with gusts to 63kt and a significant wave height of 31 feet near 0000 UTC on October 31. Other unsubstantiated observations reported winds and waves considerably higher.

North Carolina's coast was lashed with occasional winds of 35 to 45 mph for five consecutive days. In New England on October 30-31, wind gusts of above hurricane force pounded the Massachusetts coastline. Representative peak gusts included: 78 mph at Chatham NWS, 74 mph at Thatcher Island, 68 mph at Marblehead, 64 mph at Blue Hill Observatory (all in Massachusetts) and 63 mph at Newport, RI. Even more damaging were the heavy surf and coastal flooding caused by the tremendous seas and high tides caused by the long overwater fetch length and duration of the storm. Waves 10 to 30 feet high were common from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. High tides pushed to from three to seven feet above normal. In New Jersey, the greatest tidal departures of winter storms of record occurred during this event, with tide heights exceeded only by the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944. In Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, the highest water levels were comparable to those of the nor'easter of March, 1962. A record high tide of 7.8 feet occurred at Ocean City, MD on the 30th, which eclipsed the old record of 7.5 feet recorded during the March 1962 storm. In Massachusetts, 25-foot waves reached the shoreline atop high tides already 4 feet above normal. At Boston, the tide reached 14.1 feet above mean low water or about 1 foot less than the tides associated with the "Blizzard of 1978." Elsewhere treacherous swells, surf, and associated coastal flooding occurred along portions of the Atlantic shoreline extending from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, to the Bahamas, along the U.S. and Canada and in Bermuda.

Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking System (SARSAT)

According to "The Perfect Storm" book, The Andrea Gail is presumed to have sunk sometime after midnight on October 28 when the storm was still intensifying. The vessel was equipped with a 406 MHz EPIRB (Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon) which is used to notify search and rescue authorities of a distress situation. However, the EPIRB was found with the switch turned off. Such is not the case with many vessels where activation of the 406-Megahertz EPIRB has been detected by NOAA's weather observing satellites, and has led to swift rescue when they have been in trouble. The Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking system (SARSAT), was developed in a joint effort by the United States, Canada, and France. In the United States, the system was developed by NASA and its operation was turned over to NOAA where it remains today. Today there are more than 63,000 EPIRBS in the NOAA 406 MHz Registration Database. These EPRIBS, which are reserved for use in maritime operations, and similar Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs), used for the location of downed aircraft, have dramatically reduced the time to reach accident victims. In an odd twist of fate, the 406-Megahertz EPIRB identified as belonging to The Andrea Gail was found washed ashore on Sable Island on November 5.

Widespread Extensive Damage

A state by state damage summary reveals the widespread and extensive damage caused by the storm and accompanying seas. Beach erosion and coastal flooding was severe and widespread, even causing damage to lighthouses. Hundreds of homes and businesses were either knocked from their foundations or simply disappeared. Sea walls, boardwalks, bulkheads, and piers were reduced to rubble over a wide area. Numerous small boats were sunk at their berths and thousands of lobster traps were destroyed. Flooding was extensive invading homes and closing roads and airports. Former President Bush's home in Kennebunkport, ME suffered damage as windows were blown out, water flooded the building, and some structural damage also occurred. Even inland areas suffered major damage. The Hudson, Hackensack, and Passaic Rivers all experienced tidal flooding, and high winds brought down utility poles, lines, tree limbs, and signs in several states.

The most extensive damage occurred in New England where federal disaster areas were declared for seven counties in Massachusetts, five in Maine, and one in New Hampshire. Off Staten Island, two men were drowned when their boat capsized. Other fatalities occurred when a man fishing from a bridge was either blown or swept off in New York and a fisherman was swept off the rocks at Narrangansett, RI by heavy surf. Offshore, six lives were lost when the Andrea Gail, a swordfishing boat, sank. Total damage in the Halloween Storm, as it came to be known because of its date, was in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Bizarre End to the Halloween Storm 

HalstsubtropFigure 3 Subtropical Storm  Vis: 18 UTC October 31

The southward motion of the cyclone on October 31 had brought the storm over a section of the Gulfstream with sea surface temperatures near 26 degrees C (80 degrees F). Convection began increasing in bands near the center and it is estimated that subtropical characteristics were acquired at 1800 UTC on October 31, setting the stage for a bizarre ending to this storm (See Figure 3).

HalsttropFigure 4 Tropical Storm Formation IR: 06 UTC November 1 

 By 0600 UT on November 1, central convection had increased to the point where a tropical cyclone (estimated to be of tropical storm intensity) could be identified within the central area of the low (See Figure 4). Later it became a true hurricane in every sense of the word. Images of the hurricane phase and a discussion as to why this storm will be remembered in history as the "Unnamed Hurricane" can be found in the Hurricane Gallery of the Satellite's Eye Art Gallery.

Images and Information Courtesy NASA

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Look Back: Remembering Hurricane Sandy 4 Years Later

Four years ago citizens of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and much of the northeastern United States woke up to flooded avenues and homes, wind-ravaged neighborhoods, blackouts, ripped up trees, coastlines, and worst of all - hundreds of lives were lost.

It was an unlikely set of meteorological events that came together to produce one of the most powerful storms ever to strike the United Sates.  Sandy was born in the South Caribbean as a Tropical Storm on October 22nd and quickly strengthened into a Category 2 Hurricane by the 24th as it crossed over Eastern Cuba with 105 mph winds. 

Us3_huragan_do_przelotu__1024_628_80

In the following days, the storm continued it's track to the north while undergoing a slow transition into an extratropical cyclone.  In the process, Sandy grew into a massive storm that strengthened to tropical storm force winds 500 miles away from her center.

AL182012S_031
 
Here's what the storm looked like from space on the morning of the 29th only hours before making landfall along the Southern New Jersey Coast.
 
Vis-animated

In the dark, early hours of October 30, 2012, the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite caught this glimpse of the monster storm named Sandy, a hurricane that collided with two other weather fronts and merged into one of the most destructive storms in recorded American history.

Blog1

 But a satellite can’t really show the force and destruction of Sandy. It’s not until you get down to the street level that the human cost comes into better focus.
 
Even well in advance of Sandy's arrival, powerful waves began to crash along the New Jersey shore.
 
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Breakers grew to nearly 20 feet along the Jersey coastline!
 
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The ocean literally swallowed piers in Cape May.
 
Ocean grove pier NJ
 
Atlantic City was nearly washed away by a 12 foot storm surge and 80+ mph winds!
 
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The boardwalk in Atlantic City was completely destroyed.
 
Atlantic City
 
Soon the storm arrived in New York with breakers crashing over the walls in Brooklyn.
 
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Winds gusted to over 90 mph in parts of New York.  Heavily damaging a crane that was left dangling from the top of a high rise.
 
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The swell of ocean water pushed well up the Hudson River.
 
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City streets in both Brooklyn and Manhattan began filling with water.
 
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Power-flashes were seen throughout the city as transformers blew due to the damaging winds.
 
Navy yard brooklyn
 
A five alarm fire leveled an entire city block in Queens.
 
Queens five alarm fire
 
Streets became rivers.
 
121029_GALLERY_financialDistrict2_jpg_CROP_article920-large
 
The subway system was completely inundated.
 
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The water rose to more than three feet along the streets of lower Manhattan as the city saw the ocean rise to it's highest point on record.
 
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Even the hallowed grounds at the former Trade Center were not immune to the rush of water.
 
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The shoreline of New Jersey was nearly wiped clean. 

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However, a rainbow did appear over the Empire State Building for a time, bringing a moment of much needed hope to the people of the areas hit hardest. 
 
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And four years later, a memorial was unveiled yesterday in Staten Island, for the 24 lives lost there by the South Beach Civic Association. It also remembers the generosity of everyone who rose up in a time of need. 
 
Memorial
Photo Credit: Richard Reichard via Facebook 
 

10/28/2016

The Halloween Heat Up!

Today we started off in fall and by tomorrow it is back to summer! We will even be warmer by this evening, for your Friday night plans, like high school football games! Here is an hour by hour to give you an idea about the conditions. We will be quiet, clear and mild. To put our temperatures for this evening into perspective, today at noon our temps were in the uppers 50s and low 60s and this is where our lows tonight will stick. You can see the warming trend is already in full swing! 

10-28 foot ball

The temperatures are boosting up for a couple of reasons: 

  1. A moisture deprived warm front moving through the area
  2. A shift in the winds to the southwest

Notice there is also a cold front to the west. This will move across the area over the weekend. This will drop the temps briefly on Sunday but only by a couple degrees. 

10-28 surf map

A tight pressure gradient will kick up the winds on Saturday. As previously mentioned, they will be out of the SW at about 10-15 mph and could gust even faster. So it will be a breezy day and is going to help boost our temperatures. Saturday is the first day we could break a record. The forecast for Saturday's high is 84 degrees. The old record is 83 from 1900. 

10-28 sat 8 am

The cold front will sweep through on Sunday and drop temps a bit. We will be in record territory on Halloween. The current record holder is 84 degrees from 1950. We have dropped our high slightly for Monday to 81 degrees. We will keep you posted on the Halloween forecast all weekend long! I will be on from 6-9 am and Jeremy will be on at 10-11 pm Saturday and Sunday! 

*Fun Fact: In 1950, just 25 days after the warmest Halloween on record on November 24, the temperatures had fallen by SEVENTY degrees! Talk about drastic! The high temp was only 14 degrees and the low was 4 degrees. What a whacky weather year! 

10-28 spooky heat

Although 1950 was the warmest Halloween on record, it is not one of the warmest Octobers on record. This year is still on track to be one, if not THE, warmest October on record!   

10-28 hottest oct

Be sure to tune into the news this evening with Marc and Rick to find out if and when there will be a major cool down and our next chance for some much needed rain! I will see you bright and early tomorrow morning from 6-9 am! Until then you can find me on social media with the links below! 

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10/27/2016

Water Temperatures In Gulf Could Give Advance Warning Of Summer Tornado Activity...

Using a combination of observations and models, NOAA-funded scientists have found a small but significant “advanced warning” signal for heightened summer tornado activity in the U.S.: warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. The knowledge has the potential to provide emergency response agencies, communities, and individuals with an early head’s up that an upcoming severe weather season may be unusually active.  

Summer-TornadoGroup_1240

These maps show the tornado-Gulf of Mexico connection that researchers found when they divided 30 years of data (1981-2011) into two bins: summers when the Gulf of Mexico was cooler-than-average and summers when it was warmer-than-average. In cool Gulf summers, the amount of energy present in the atmosphere to fuel convection and tornadoes—a key severe weather ingredient, which weather experts call “CAPE”—was reduced (purple colors), and tornado counts in the United States were lower (less reds and oranges). When the Gulf was warm, CAPE was elevated (more orange colors), and tornado counts were higher.

Tornado outbreaks are notoriously hard to predict and right now, scientists can only offer outbreak warnings a few hours in advance. While the authors of this paper are not suggesting that this technique can be used to predict specific storms, it could highlight what conditions are more- or less-favorable for tornado formation—given that today's models do a reasonably good job of predicting Gulf of Mexico temperature anomalies up to 3 months in advance.

“Severe storms threaten lives throughout the United States every year,” wrote the authors. “…any predictive capability is of large societal benefit.”

This research was funded in part by the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program, part of NOAA's Climate Program Office within the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Reference

Eunsil, J. and B. Kirtman, 2016. Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States? Environ. Res. Lett., 11 (7), 074018.  doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074018

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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TERRIFIC TRIO In Thursday's Evening Sky...

Saturn, Venus and Antares will line up in the evening sky Thursday, October 27th. The sunset occurs at 6:49 PM, that means you should head outside around 7:20 PM and look low in the southwest sky. You will find a terrific trio of two bright planets and a colorful star.

Terrific-trio-blog

The two planets will appear to form a nearly perfect vertical line with Saturn at the top and Venus just below. At the end of the line and right above the horizon, the red star Antares may be visible as well. I would suggest using binoculars to get the full effect as twilight may make it difficult to see Antares. In terms of the weather, clouds will be breaking down as temps settle into the mid 50's.

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-Rick DeLuca

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Building Crumbles After Italian Earthquakes

Two quakes struck central Italy just hours apart. According to the US Geological Survey the first was a 5.5 magnitude and the second a 6.0 magnitude. Norcia, Italy is the largest city nearby and Perugia is 60 km east- where 300 people were killed in August from another Earthquake.

Italy earthquake'

Aftershocks are now being felt across central Italy. No injuries have been reported yet, but there is significant damage to buildings and electricity is out.

Watch the moment a 15th century building collapses into rubble, ash and rocks following a series of Earthquakes on Wednesday near Norcia, Italy.

Video Courtesy: EuroNews

To learn more about the quake visit USGS website here.

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