The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Indiana
Central and western Kentucky
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 825 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely spaced yet potentially tornadic supercells are
expected to move east-northeastward into and across parts of this
watch, offering the threats for tornadoes (some significant: capable
of at least EF2 damage), large hail and severe gusts. Some increase
in storm coverage is likely through the overnight hours. See SPC
mesoscale discussion 224 for initial meteorological insights.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles south southeast of Jonesboro
AR to 30 miles east northeast of Bloomington IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
You've probably heard the old saying that if "March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb," well let's hope that holds true because storms will roar at times over the next 2 days. The Storm Prediction Center placed almost all of Kentuckiana under their "slight risk" for severe weather on Tuesday...
Unfortunately, this threat continues into Wednesday for areas along and south of the Ohio River. Locations under that red hatched zone have a slightly elevated risk...
All modes of severe weather are possible as this monster low pressure slides just north of us. It will deepen, or strengthen as it slides into the Great Lakes sending a cold front into our area...
The map below tells us how much instability and wind energy the storms have to work with as they roll through. According to the NAM, there looks to be around 1,500 units of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in our area with 70-80 mph winds late Tuesday night. Wind energy looks similar on the GFS, but CAPES are less than 1,000 units...
Now let's get to the timing because 48 hours is a very long time to be on guard for severe weather. Our first storm threat begins late tonight and into Tuesday morning as a warm front whips across our area. While you will probably hear thunder and see lightning, the risk for severe weather is VERY LOW during the morning...
A break in the action occurs late Tuesday, then overnight we need to be EXTRA careful. Storms at night can be especially dangerous considering most people are fast asleep. Check out future radar illustrating strong to severe storms crashing through after midnight into Wednesday morning...
I would be shocked if we didn't get some watches or warnings late Tuesday night/Wednesday. A powerful cold front brings storms across our northwestern counties during the morning. Slight weakening may occur before the atmosphere recharges. Then the front drags storms down to our southeastern counties during the afternoon hours...
Remember those storms we had Friday evening? The severe weather ingredients are much higher this time around so please stay with us for constant updates. Marc and I will have more information tonight on WDRB!
Scattered storms develop early Tuesday morning. Some of these will produce very heavy rain and potentially produce some small hail. Instability is lacking early Tuesday morning so the risk for anything being severe is very low.
After the initial round of rain and storms we should have ample dry time developing in the afternoon and early evening. This combined with strong south winds pumps high temps to near 70. Dew points surge into the low 60s Tuesday night providing plenty of juice for the heavy rain and storms to feed off of. In my opinion the best chance for severe storms in Kentuckiana exists overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
At this point a line of storms should fire ahead of the cold front overnight Tuesday producing scattered severe storms. Some of these storms will produce damaging straight line wind.
A few of the threat levels will be a bit higher than what we faced last Friday night. The big difference this go round comes with much higher dewpoints. This could make for a better chance at damaging storms. Please see the storm threats below
Stay tuned to the always changing weather forecast. More updates on this severe weather risk to come. -Jude Redfield-
Bill Paxton Filmography • Training Day (2017) TV stars as Frank Rourke • Life Briefly (2017) • Mean Dreams (2016) stars as Wayne Caraway • The Circle (2016) • Term Life (2016) stars as Detective Keenan • The Gamechangers (2015) aka "Grand Theft Auto" stars as Jack Thompson • Texas Rising (2015) TV stars as Sam Houston • Million Dollar Arm (2014) stars as Tom House • Edge of Tomorrow (2014) aka "All You Need Is Kill" stars as Master Sergeant Farell • Nightcrawler (2014) stars as Joe Loder • Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (2014) TV stars as John Garrett • 2 Guns (2013) stars as Earl • Head Smash: The Prequel (2013) stars as Maurice (voice) • Red Wing (2013) stars as Jim Verret • The Colony (2013) stars as Mason • Shanghai Calling (2012) stars as Donald • Hatfields & McCoys (2012) TV stars as Randall McCoy • Haywire (2011) aka "Knockout" stars as Mr. Kane • The Good Life (2007) stars as Robbie • Big Love: In the Beginning (2007) TV stars as Bill Henrickson • Big Love (2006) TV stars as Bill Henrickson • Magnificent Desolation: Walking on the Moon 3D (2005) stars as Ed Mitchell (voice) • Haven (2004) stars as Carl Ridley • Thunderbirds (2004) aka Thunderbirds - Les sentinelles de l'air (France) stars as Jeff Tracy • Club Dread (2004) aka Broken Lizard's Club Dread stars as Coconut Pete • Resistance (2003) stars as Maj. Theodore 'Ted' Brice • Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over (2003) stars as Dinky Winks • Spy Kids 2: Island of Lost Dreams (2002) stars as Dinky Winks • Frailty (2001) aka Damonisch (Germany) stars as Dad Meiks • U-571 (2000) stars as Lt. Cmdr. Mike Dahlgren • Vertical Limit (2000) stars as Elliot Vaughn • Mighty Joe Young (1998) aka Mighty Joe stars as Professor Gregory "Gregg" O'Hara • A Simple Plan (1998) aka Ein Einfacher Plan (Germany) stars as Hank Mitchell • A Bright Shining Lie (1998) TM stars as Col. John Paul Vann • Traveller (1997) stars as Bokky • Titanic (1997) stars as Brock Lovett • The Evening Star (1996) stars as Jerry Bruckner • Twister (1996) stars as Bill Harding • The Last Supper (1995) stars as Zachary Cody • Apollo 13 (1995) aka Apollo 13: The IMAX Experience stars as Fred Haise • True Lies (1994) stars as Simon • Frank & Jesse (1994) stars as Frank James • Tombstone (1993) stars as Morgan Earp • Monolith (1993) aka Monolith (Germany) stars as Tucker • Indian Summer (1993) aka Ete indien, L' (Canada: French title) stars as Jack Belston • Boxing Helena (1993) stars as Ray O'Malley • Future Shock (1993) stars as Vince • One False Move (1992) stars as Chief Dale 'Hurricane' Dixon • The Vagrant (1992) stars as Graham Krakowski • Trespass (1992) aka Looters stars as Vince Gillian • The Dark Backward (1991) aka The Man with Three Arms stars as Gus • Brain Dead (1990) aka Paranoia stars as Jim Reston • The Last of the Finest (1990) aka Blue Heat stars as Howard 'Hojo' Jones • Navy Seals (1990) stars as Dane • Predator 2 (1990) stars as Jerry Lambert • Back to Back (1989) stars as Bo Brand • Next of Kin (1989) stars as Gerald Gates • Slipstream (1989) aka Slipstream: Bounty Hunter 2000 stars as Matt Owens • Pass the Ammo (1988) stars as Jesse Wilkes • Near Dark (1987) stars as Severen • Riding Fast (1986) stars as Bobo • Aliens (1986) stars as Pvt. Hudson • Fresno (1986) TV stars as Billy Joe Bobb • An Early Frost (1985) TM stars as Bob Maracek • Commando (1985) stars as Intercept Officer • Weird Science (1985) stars as Chet Donnelly • The Atlanta Child Murders (1985) TV stars as Campbell • Pat Benatar: Hit Videos (1984) VI stars as Radio operator • Streets of Fire (1984) stars as Clyde the Bartender • Impulse (1984) stars as Eddie • The Terminator (1984) stars as Punk Leader • Great Day (1983) TM stars as Rudy • Taking Tiger Mountain (1983) aka Trechi Mynydd y Teigr (UK: Welsh title: literal title) • The Lords of Discipline (1983) stars as Gilbreath • Night Warning (1983) aka Butcher, Baker, Nightmare Maker stars as Eddie • Deadly Lessons (1983) TM stars as Eddie Fox • Mortuary (1983) aka Embalmed stars as Paul Andrews • Stripes (1981) stars as Soldier • The Six O'Clock Follies (1980) TV • Fish Heads (1980) stars as Main Character • Crazy Mama (1975) stars as John
What an epic career this guy had. I only wish it would've been longer.
Not one, but two severe risks have been posted over the region for this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. First thing to note is this is complicated scenario and there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast in terms of how widespread the severe storms will be and how intense they will be if they do happen. At this point, I will tell you what I know but also that the forecast is likely to change and we will be tweaking it over the coming days. Therefore, you need to check back as well to be informed about the forecast.
This first image is the risk area for Tuesday and we are under the slight risk for severe weather.
A potentially widespread damaging-wind event is also possible on Wednesday in the Ohio Valley as a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward while a cold front sweeps eastward. A moist/unstable warm sector and very strong southwesterly flow fields aloft will conditionally support an extensive squall line potentially capable of damaging winds.
The system of interest is currently residing on the southern coast of California and will make its way toward the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and eventually swing a cold front through the region. There will be multiple rounds of rain starting late tonight.
First, temperatures and moisture are on the uptick over the next few days and that will increase instability. A warm front will lift through the area and we will be in the midst of a warm sector on Tuesday with dew points in the low 60s, which is just sufficient for severe storm and will contribute to weak buoyancy.
There is also PLENTY of wind energy aloft (60-70 kts), which could result in the development of super-cells and cause damaging straight line winds and hail. Several models are in agreement about the strong winds aloft during several hours late Tuesday and into Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rain is most likely on Wednesday. The tornado threat is not off the table.
Where the models are not in complete agreement in is coverage, intensity and instability. The NAM is below and it seems to have the highest instability, especially in comparison to the GFS, which is running about 500 J/KG lower on Tuesday.
The highest CAPE is during Wednesday afternoon, when the cold front is sliding through the area. Winds will still be strong aloft at this time as well. One thing to keep in mind, is if there are any breaks in the rain from Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. If there are, there is a better chance for severe. If it is a consistent rain, the threat for Wednesday afternoon storms will be much lower.
Now let's chat about the timing. Again, this is subject to change as we get closer to Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Tonight: Rain moves into western IN and KY and pushes east overnight into all of Kentuckiana, but they will be light and spotty. They will continue into Monday morning.
Monday: Light showers continue into the mid afternoon before tapering off and the rest of the day is variably cloudy.
Tuesday: Morning rain with rumbles of thunder. Dry afternoon which will increase instability and adds to our convection possibilities for stronger to severe storms in the evening that continue into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday: Another round possible with a cold front and more strong to severe storms possible.
Whew, it's a lot to take in and we have to really just go day by day and stay informed. Be sure to see what Jeremy has to say as it is possible things will have changed by this evening on WDRB News. As also you can find the links to my pages below!
Three decades ago, astronomers spotted one of the brightest exploding stars in more than 400 years. The titanic supernova, called Supernova 1987A (SN 1987A), blazed with the power of 100 million suns for several months following its discovery on Feb. 23, 1987.
Since that first sighting, SN 1987A has continued to fascinate astronomers with its spectacular light show. Located in the nearby Large Magellanic Cloud, it is the nearest supernova explosion observed in hundreds of years and the best opportunity yet for astronomers to study the phases before, during, and after the death of a star.
The video begins with a nighttime view of the Small and Large Magellanic clouds, satellite galaxies of our Milky Way. It then zooms into a rich star-birth region in the Large Magellanic Cloud. Nestled between mountains of red-colored gas is the odd-looking structure of Supernova 1987A, the remnant of an exploded star that was first observed in February 1987. The site of the supernova is surrounded by a ring of material that is illuminated by a wave of energy from the outburst. Two faint outer rings are also visible. All three rings existed before the explosion as fossil relics of the doomed star’s activity in its final days. Credits: NASA, ESA, and G. Bacon (STScI)
To commemorate the 30th anniversary of SN 1987A, new images, time-lapse movies, a data-based animation based on work led by Salvatore Orlando at INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Italy, and a three-dimensional model are being released. By combining data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory, as well as the international Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), astronomers — and the public — can explore SN 1987A like never before.
This Hubble Space Telescope image shows Supernova 1987A within the Large Magellanic Cloud, a neighboring galaxy to our Milky Way. Credits: NASA, ESA, R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation), and M. Mutchler and R. Avila (STScI)
This time-lapse video sequence of Hubble Space Telescope images reveals dramatic changes in a ring of material around the exploded star Supernova 1987A. The images, taken from 1994 to 2016, show the effects of a shock wave from the supernova blast smashing into the ring. The ring begins to brighten as the shock wave hits it. The ring is about one light-year across. Credits: NASA, ESA, and R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation), and P. Challis (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)
Hubble has repeatedly observed SN 1987A since 1990, accumulating hundreds of images, and Chandra began observing SN 1987A shortly after its deployment in 1999. ALMA, a powerful array of 66 antennas, has been gathering high-resolution millimeter and submillimeter data on SN 1987A since its inception.
The 30 years' worth of observations of SN 1987A are important because they provide insight into the last stages of stellar evolution," said Robert Kirshner of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, California.
The latest data from these powerful telescopes indicate that SN 1987A has passed an important threshold. The supernova shock wave is moving beyond the dense ring of gas produced late in the life of the pre-supernova star when a fast outflow or wind from the star collided with a slower wind generated in an earlier red giant phase of the star's evolution. What lies beyond the ring is poorly known at present, and depends on the details of the evolution of the star when it was a red giant.
This scientific visualization, using data from a computer simulation, shows Supernova 1987A, as the luminous ring of material we see today. Credits: NASA, ESA, and F. Summers and G. Bacon (STScI); Simulation Credit: S. Orlando (INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo)
Some highlights from studies involving these telescopes include:
Hubble studies have revealed that the dense ring of gas around the supernova is glowing in optical light, and has a diameter of about a light-year. The ring was there at least 20,000 years before the star exploded. A flash of ultraviolet light from the explosion energized the gas in the ring, making it glow for decades.
The central structure visible inside the ring in the Hubble image has now grown to roughly half a light-year across. Most noticeable are two blobs of debris in the center of the supernova remnant racing away from each other at roughly 20 million miles an hour.
From 1999 until 2013, Chandra data showed an expanding ring of X-ray emission that had been steadily getting brighter. The blast wave from the original explosion has been bursting through and heating the ring of gas surrounding the supernova, producing X-ray emission.
These images, taken between 1994 and 2016 by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope, chronicle the brightening of a ring of gas around an exploded star. Credits: NASA, ESA, and R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation), and P. Challis (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)
In the past few years, the ring has stopped getting brighter in X-rays. From about February 2013 until the last Chandra observation analyzed in September 2015 the total amount of low-energy X-rays has remained constant. Also, the bottom left part of the ring has started to fade. These changes provide evidence that the explosion's blast wave has moved beyond the ring into a region with less dense gas. This represents the end of an era for SN 1987A.
Beginning in 2012, astronomers used ALMA to observe the glowing remains of the supernova, studying how the remnant is actually forging vast amounts of new dust from the new elements created in the progenitor star. A portion of this dust will make its way into interstellar space and may become the building blocks of future stars and planets in another system.
Astronomers combined observations from three different observatories to produce this colorful, multiwavelength image of the intricate remains of Supernova 1987A. Credits: NASA, ESA, and A. Angelich (NRAO/AUI/NSF); Hubble credit: NASA, ESA, and R. Kirshner (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation) Chandra credit: NASA/CXC/Penn State/K. Frank et al.; ALMA credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO) and R. Indebetouw (NRAO/AUI/NSF)
These observations also suggest that dust in the early universe likely formed from similar supernova explosions. Astronomers also are still looking for evidence of a black hole or a neutron star left behind by the blast. They observed a flash of neutrinos from the star just as it erupted. This detection makes astronomers quite certain a compact object formed as the center of the star collapsed — either a neutron star or a black hole — but no telescope has uncovered any evidence for one yet.
These latest visuals were made possible by combining several sources of information including simulations by Salvatore Orlando and collaborators that appear in this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.02275. The Chandra study by Frank et al. can be found online at http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/1608.02160. Recent ALMA results on SN 87A are available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.4086.
The Chandra program is managed by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, Massachusetts, controls Chandra's science and flight operations. The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., in Washington.
ALMA is a partnership of ESO (representing its member states), NSF (USA) and NINS (Japan), together with NRC (Canada), NSC and ASIAA (Taiwan), and KASI (Republic of South Korea), in cooperation with the Republic of Chile. The Joint ALMA Observatory is operated by ESO, AUI/NRAO and NAOJ.
Yesterday was quite a record breaking day! Not only did we SMASH the daily record of 71 degrees, we also broke the all time high for February of 78 degrees and it is the earliest we have ever hit 80 degrees. The official high ended up being 81 degrees!
A cold front then swept through the area yesterday evening and brought with it strong to severe storms. The lingering effects are gusty winds and MUCH cooler temperatures.
In the past 24 hours we have dropped about 30 degrees, but when all is said and done, the afternoon temperatures for today compared to yesterday will be about 40 degrees lower. Our high temperatures for today happened around midnight and temps have continued to decline. The rest of today we will be in the low 40s and upper 30s, but it will FEEL a lot cooler because of the constant breeze.
There are a few flurries flying around parts of the area, mainly to our north in southern IN. Those will end early and the rest of the day will be mostly cloudy, with some peeks of sun. The clouds will begin to decrease late this afternoon and really begin to erode this evening. The sunset should be a pretty one.
Eventually it become a mostly clear night and it will be a sunny start to Sunday!
However, if you are a frequent reader of the blog or know a thing or two about weather, when we lose the clouds- we lose insulation! Combine that with the effects of the cold front it is going to get CHILLY tonight! Plus, there will still be a westerly wind at about 10-15 mph, so wind chills will be around the upper teens to the low 20s! Brrr!! Talk about a wild ride!
Roller coaster temperatures are going to be continuing into the work week and there is more rain moving in as well. To learn more about that be sure to join Jeremy on WDRB News this evening!
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Much Of Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over western Indiana along a
cold front. These storms will spread across the watch area this
afternoon and evening, posing a threat of locally damaging winds and
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Flint MI to 35 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
Update: A severe storm watch has now been issued for our viewing area and incdes our most northern counties until 10 pm.
However, the rest of our area remains under a slight and enhanced risk for severe weather for late this afternoon and evening. The enhanced risk has shifted slightly to east where there are slightly stronger winds aloft. We still have decent instability and the mid level winds are around 40-50 kts. Both are sufficient to produce severe storms. The main threat is still going to be damaging straight line winds. We cannot completely remove the tornado threat, but it's relatively low. There could also some large hail, heavy down pours, and lightning.
One ingredient for severe that we definitely have is WARMTH! At 12:38 pm, we broke the all time February high at 79 degrees. We smashed the days record hours earlier of 71 degrees in 2000. And we continued to climb in the afternoon. Around 2 pm, we hit 80 degrees!
And that's because we are in the warm sector of this low pressure system. The warm front slid through the area yesterday. The better potential for stronger storms, in my opinion, is in NE IN and NW OH, where the warm front is sitting. The cold front is approaching our area and the strong to severe storms will be along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will sharply fall following the front.
Another component of instability is moisture. The warm sector is a warm and moist air mass. And while both our temperatures and dew points have increased with southerly flow over the past few days, as a rule, in order for it to be a severe "event" per say, dew points really need to be a bit higher. Therefore, while I think there will be severe storms tonight, I do not think EVERY ONE will see severe weather across the viewing area. As a reminder, in order for a storm to be severe it needs to have winds greater than 60 mph.
A line of storms are beginning to fire off to our west. But they have been developing since this morning. There is a cap or a layer of relatively warm air aloft, delaying the development of thunderstorms. The cap will break today around 4-5 pm and suddenly storms will start popping up on our radar in the western part of our viewing area.
Severe storms will be most likely from 5-12 am. We can break that down a bit more and say that from 5-10 pm west of I-65 and 8 pm-1 am east of I-65.
The best chance to see active weather and strong to severe storms for metro Louisville will be about 6-9 pm.
Notice the line of showers and storms are becoming more numerous and are still in our viewing area by 10-11 pm and will not completely clear until at least 2 am (see second image).
The front will then slide through and temperatures will PLUMMET. We will see severe storms transition to snow and sleet for the first few hours of your Saturday.
Marc and Rick will be tracking the severe storms all evening on WDRB. If and when the storms go severe, we will be keeping you up to date online (the links to my pages are below) and on air. I will be on WDRB (not so) bright and early from 6-9 am with the remarkable overnight changes. Stay safe and keep it with WDRB!