A system out to our west is going to continue pushing east toward Kentuckiana and will arrive just in time for the weekend. We are currently positioned in the warm sector of this low pressure system, in between the warm and cold front. And I'm sure you have noticed! Temperatures have surged in the past 24 to 48 hours thanks to that warm front! Tomorrow the cold front will pass through the area and bring with it showers and storms.
Now that we are in the spring season, chatting about severe weather is a must! For now, the Storm Prediction Center does not have us under anything other than a general thunderstorm risk. However, there is a marginal risk for severe weather just to the SW and I agree. If there was a best chance to see severe, it would be tomorrow evening and west of I-65. As the storms continue to progress east, they will hit more stable air and the storms will diminish in strength. A rogue strong to severe storm is not off the table.
The CAPE or instability has also been pretty low with this system, but still sufficient for a strong or severe storm. Notice on the image below, there is an area of blue to the SW. That is a higher area of instability and one of the reasons why there is a better chance for severe storms to develop south and west.
There is also sufficient wind energy, in Kentuckiana (30-40 kts), but once again the strongest winds are to the SW (50 kts). However, these two images do not exactly line up. The wind image is for three hours prior to the highest instability. Winds begin to weaken as the system progresses east.
The best chance for showers and storms tomorrow is going to be in the late afternoon/evening. We can't rule out a few scattered showers earlier, but the more widespread showers and storms will hold off until Saturday evening. Notice that at 1 pm, we are just seeing mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures once again.
A few scattered showers will start in the late afternoon/early evening, particularly in our western counties.
The squall line then will progress toward the region, in our western counties and notice how more numerous they have become. This would be the time frame we could see some strong to severe storms.
They will continue to push east toward the metro area and will still have the potential for some gusty winds and small hail.
Once it crosses the I-65 line and heads into more stable air, notice the strength of the line weakens and is more of a soaking rain.
Speaking of rain: how much are we expecting to see with these storms? The GFS and the Euro are both below and notice they are in good agreement about the amount of rainfall possible, roughly half an inch. But there is more rain in the forecast in the coming days, that will take us over the 1'' mark.
So the general gist is Saturday will have dry time, mainly early. While the severe risk is not overwhelming, there is a possibility for a rogue severe storm or two and the rain will not clear out completely on Sunday. There will be a few more lingering showers then as well.
Marc and Rick will track out the showers for Sunday and also discuss the severe potential for Monday as well! Be sure to join them this evening on WDRB News. I will see you bright and early tomorrow morning! Until then you can find me on my social media pages. The links are below!
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