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64 posts from April 2017

04/30/2017

Severe Threat Not Done Yet: More Storms Today

Severe Risk:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for severe weather for late this afternoon and tonight for a pretty large chunk of our viewing area, mainly west of I-65. But as I mentioned on air, I would still encourage everyone to be weather aware today. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. The rest of the viewing area, is under a "Marginal Risk". This is the second lowest of six categories and is defined as an area of severe storms of limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and intensity. 

After a few scattered showers on and off, thunderstorms are expected to move into the area late this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front .  The main threats will be damaging gusty winds, hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding.  

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Set up:

A cold front is making its way towards the area and will move through by tomorrow. It will usher in showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Say goodbye to the 80s! We are currently in the warm sector, which is a warm, moist (or very humid, muggy, sticky, air that you wear) air mass and I am sure it has not gone unnoticed. Dew points have surged in the past two days into the mid 60s and highs will be in the mid 80s. That is enough heat and moisture (or instability) to develop strong to severe storms. Instability is one of the ingredients needed to develop severe storms. 

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Speaking of ingredients... 

Ingredients:

Below is an image of the mid level winds. It is showing them around about 50- 60 kts. That is a lot wind energy! Definitely enough for strong to severe storms. And it will be a windy day! We could see gusts up to 35-40 mph even before any storms begin. In fact there is a wind advisory in effect for Grayson, Breckinridge, Hart and Hardin Counties. Expect winds out of the south at 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. The rest of the region will see slightly calmer wind gusts; up to 35 mph. 

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Instability: Models are showing CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, a measurement of instability, around 500-800 J/kg during this evening. This is moderate instability, it is enough for strong to severe storms to develop, but considerably lower than the past few days. The threat for severe weather today is a conditional, if the instability doesn't materialize, severe storms will not happen.  We have seen scattered showers across more of the area than originally expected and even some of the rapid refresh model trends are suggesting they will continue longer into the afternoon. This will keep instability at bay. There is also quite a bit of cloud cover, also inhibiting instability and severe weather development. All good news! 

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Timing: 

As I mentioned above, we are already seeing a few showers and they could potentially continue for some of us before the cold front arrives. (This has changed from my morning forecast). Many will still be dry, but there will be plenty of clouds. Around 4-6 pm, a line of storms will move into the area ahead of the cold front and spread across the viewing area.

Scroll through the images of Advancetrack below to get an idea of the timing and coverage of storms for today and tonight.  

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Flash Flooding Concerns... 

Showers will continue through the overnight and into Monday morning and bring additional rainfall totals to areas that are already saturated from Friday's and Saturday's storms. When all is said and done, we could see another 1-2'' of rain. There are flash flood watches in effect through Monday morning. 

The NWS has issued a statement regarding the heavy rain potential. Below are more Advancetrak graphics and rainfall totals as well. 

ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SHOULD PRODUCE HOURLY RAIN RATES LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 1"...WITH ANOTHER 1-2.5" OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER AREAS OF
SATURATED SOILS EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN MO INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IN...WHERE 3-HOUR FFG VALUES ARE MAINLY LESS THAN
1-1.5". 

THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER 1-2.5" RAIN WILL
FALL LOCALLY THROUGH 19Z. GIVEN THE HIGH SOIL SATURATION...RECENT
RAINS...AND LOW FFG VALUES...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

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Showers will finally end on Monday morning and we will stay dry through Tuesday. Phew! 

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So what do I think?? 

I think severe weather is certainly possible today, but it is conditional based on the instability over the next few hours. Thanks to the clouds and extra showers, it is not super impressive.  The ingredients are not overwhelming, but there is technically enough to produce a few strong to severe storms. If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Be sure to join Jeremy this evening on WDRB News  . . . Thurby and Oaks and Derby. . . oh my! They are mere days away and there are some rain chances in the forecast! We will be tweaking it all week long, so be sure to keep up with the forecast to learn the latest each day! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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04/29/2017

NOAA Issues Statement Concerning Potential for More Flooding Tonight!

The Weather Prediction Center (NOAA - NWS) has highlighted parts of our area for the potential for more flooding later tonight.  You can read their discussion is below.  For those that don't need all the weather jargon, see my comments at the bottom.

Mcd0165

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0165 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 816 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OH...CENT & S IND...SOUTHERN IL..SOUTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 300015Z - 300515Z

SUMMARY...MCS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRACKING THROUGH AREAS OF COMPROMISED GROUND CONDITIONS COMPOUNDING ONGOING FF CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LARGE MCS COMPLEX TUCKED IN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE OF SYNOPTIC JET WITH EXCELLENT ORIENTATION TO RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 140 KT JET OVER QUEBEC (OPEN TO 70KT PORTION OF THE JET IN MI). LONG LIVED UPSCALE GROWING MCV CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IL WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION SOUTH OF DEC AND E OF MTO. AS THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE OF IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG CONTINUES TO FEED VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS REACHING -75C GIVEN FORWARD PROGRESS/MST CONVERGENCE AT LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO SEVERE WX BUT ALSO HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN ITS PATH PRODUCING UP TO 1.0" IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES FOLLOWED BY MODERATE MCS SHIELD PRECIPITATION TO FURTHER EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS IS FURTHER COMPOUNDED GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND MEDIUM TO LARGER STEM CREEKS/RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY FLOODING...AND 1HR/3HR FFG VALUES ARE AT OR BELOW 1.0".

FURTHER SOUTHWEST/LATER THIS EVENING... AS THE MCV EXITS...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THIS PLACES THE ENTIRE LINE NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE BROAD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. THE LLJ IS STRONGER FURTHER WEST ALONG THE LINE NEARER THE MO BOOTHEEL WITH 850MB FLOW CURRENTLY 30-40KTS THOUGH EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 50KTS...WHILE 25-30KT FLOW OVER SW OH WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KTS. AS SUCH THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE FURTHER WEST ACROSS S IL/S IND THAN DOWNSTREAM IN OH AND BEARS WATCHING THOUGH FFG IS LOW THROUGHOUT WESTERN OH.

GIVEN FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN BUILDING A WELL OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD SUPPORT BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEADING TO FAIRLY STATIONARY OR SLOW PROPAGATION INTO THE REMAINING 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. CELL MOTIONS GIVEN THE DEEPER CLOUD BEARING STEERING FLOW ARE MORE FROM THE SW AND WILL ALLOW FOR CELLS TO TRACK ENEWARD WITH A TRAINING COMPONENT AS WELL. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...CURRENT TRENDS PLACE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE TRACK/ZONE OF HVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE FLOW GREATER ASCENT/FORCING REMAINS NORTH; PROMOTING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR IF WORSE CASE SETUP OCCURS. EVEN IF THE LINE BECOMES MORE BROKEN OR SOUTHWARD DRIFTING...FLASH FLOODING WOULD REMAIN LIKELY DUE TO THE TRAINING AND LOWER FFG VALUES IN THE VICINITY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

GALLINA 

Rainfall01

So what does this mean???  

In short, areas that were impacted by flooding rains last night could see more high waters tonight.  A line of heavy storms approaching out of the Wabash River Valley looks to impact parts of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky where locally 4 to 8 inches of rain fell last night and earlier this morning. 

The additional rainfall on top of already saturated soils will quickly lead to runoff issues wherever the heaviest rain occurs.  While not everyone will see the storms tonight, where they do occur, could be locally heavy with an inch or two possible.

Watch

Several rivers across Southern Indiana remain above flood stage and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for areas along and north of the river through Monday morning.  

I'll have a full update on the situation tonight on WDRB News at 10.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Flooding Concerns & Storm Potential for Rest of the Day

What a night! What a morning!

There were multiple severe thunderstorm warnings, thousands of lightning strikes, a possible tornado near Goshen,  several hail reports and a TON of rain. Many areas in southern Indiana have picked up a tremendous amount of rainfall since last night, some seeing nearly NINE inches of rain in spots. We have gotten reports of road closures, flooded homes & business across the area and even reports of a water rescues in Dubois County.

Currently, a few showers continue along and north of the warm front and an outflow boundary, in the same areas that have already seen plenty of rain. This is known as training and has been the case all night and morning long.  The good news is that it appears the warm front will lift north and shut off the precipitation by the afternoon and allow us to shake off and dry off. 

Below are the rainfall totals for metro since midnight only. Notice the difference between Floyds Knobs and Fern Creek. They are roughly 20 miles apart and saw HUGE differences in rainfall amounts. It is truly amazing to see the difference only a few miles can make. Some parts of our viewing area just to south of Fern Creek didn't see a drop. 

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On the wider perspective, you can see where the heaviest rain fell. These are just estimates for the past 24 hours, but they are pretty close. Dubois and Crawford Counties saw the most rain in the past day with 7-8'' in most places. Just north of I-64 was slammed the hardest in terms of heavy rain. 

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The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire, but the flood warnings are still in effect for Counties in southern IN through this afternoon. There are also a few rivers in our most northern counties that will continue to be monitored over the next few days with flood warnings in effect until further notice. 

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Around midnight, there was strong rotation indicted on radar near eastern Clark & NW Oldham Counties and Goshen. Today the NWS said they are going out there to conduct a survey to determine if there was a tornado or not along that path of strong rotation. Stay tuned. 

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The rest of today... 

There are still a few showers across the area and they should move out between 1-3 pm. The data does show enough instability for strong to severe storms, but there should be a cap or lid in place limiting convection. But if you were paying attention yesterday, the cap is a tricky and fickle beast to predict. Let's hope it holds. We all need a break I think. 

However, I will mention if it breaks and storms fire off, there is enough instability for damaging winds and large hail once again. (Fingers crossed).

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I am confident a few isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms will return to the area tonight and linger through Sunday morning. This will be mainly for southern IN. Exactly where we've already had a boat load of rain! 

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Because I think we should stay dry this afternoon, we are also expecting a hot, humid and breezy afternoon for most areas, with record to near record high temperatures possible. I went with a high of 88 degrees. The old record is 89 set back in 1899.  The record warm low for today is  67 set back in 1951. 
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Tomorrow will also be very warm too, with highs in the upper 80s once again and more records will be in jeopardy! 

4/30 Warm Low: 70 (1899)

4/30 Record High: 91 (1894)

Plus, there is the potential for MORE severe weather tomorrow! To find out when that will happen and the main threats, be sure to join Jeremy this evening on WDRB News! I'll see you tomorrow morning from 6-9! Be sure to give my social media pages a visit and a like! The links are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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04/28/2017

TORNADO WATCH issued for a large chunk of our area...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Indiana
     Northern Kentucky

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 825 PM
     until 100 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
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SUMMARY...Clusters of storms along a surface boundary will likely retain supercell structures for the next few hours, with an attendant risk for large hail and damaging winds. The near-storm environment is favorable for some tornado risk for the next few hours with the storms near the Ohio River, within the northern edge of the warm sector. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 45 miles east of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for parts of our area! Locations inside...

 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Indiana
     Extreme north central Kentucky
     Southwest Ohio

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 810 PM
     until 200 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
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SUMMARY...Clusters of slightly elevated storms, with some supercell structures, will likely persist and spread eastward from Indiana into Ohio through early tonight. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Cincinnati OH to 85 miles east of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

Watch Likely to Be Issued ....

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the conditions for our area for severe weather for the next day. Based on the data, it is likely that a thunderstorm or a tornado watch will be issued.  They have not specified which yet will be issued. The main threats are going to be gusty, damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, heavy rain and tornadoes are possible as well. Read what SPC has to say about the threat below and be sure to stay weather aware.

  Image 1

 Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms developing over the southeast Missouri
   vicinity should gradually increase in coverage, and pose a severe
   risk -- mainly in the form of large hail.  Weather Watch may be required in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms increasing across the
   southeast MO vicinity, likely associated with a zone of ascent
   associated with a weak/subtle wave evident in water vapor imagery
   moving northeast across eastern portions of KS/OK and into MO at
   this time.  A slow increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected over the next few hours given gradual mid-level
   destabilization in conjunction with the existing, amply sheared
   environment (and as hinted at by visible imagery and the latest HRRR
   runs).  As such, we will continue to monitor convective evolution
   and need for a possible WW.  Though risk would likely remain
   primarily hail, any storm development farther south -- i.e. nearer
   the warm front -- would require additional attention, with respect
   to possible surface-based severe risk.  While capping (with respect
   to a surface-based parcel) is expected to persist, we continue to
   monitor areas near/south of the boundary as well -- i.e. eastward
   across western and into central KY and vicinity.

 

Stay tuned for the latest information. Storms are likely to develop shortly. Marc, Jude and I will be here and keeping you informed for the rest of today. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information. If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Synopsis of National Weather Service Conference Call and Severe Weather Threat for Today and Weekend

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for severe weather today, tonight and the overnight.

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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Marc, Rick and I will be here and keeping you informed for the rest of today. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information, especially because storms will be firing off around 4 - 5 pm. If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Severe Weather Likely...Spread The Word

From Jude Redfield...

    Bottom line...severe weather is LIKELY for parts of Kentuckiana late this afternoon through tonight. We are expecting multiple rounds of VERY HEAVY RAIN along with NASTY STORMS.

WKUGraphic

    Please see the graph below which illustrates our storm threats into early Saturday morning. A few storms will be capable of producing large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. Some of the storms will rotate, possibly producing a few tornadoes.

Shoes

    We all know it's Friday night leading up to Derby week which means people will be outside all over the town. Please have a back up plan in place and shelter that you can get to IF severe weather heads in your direction. Please spread the word and be weather aware.

WKUlunge2

    Scattered storms, some severe look likely between 4pm and 4am.

Balloons

    In the overnight a slow shift to the north is expected with the bulk of the rain/storms heading north of the river by the time the Mini/Marathon takes place.

Temps

Excellent weather is expected for much of the day Saturday and Sunday. BRACE FOR ABSURD LEVELS OF HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND! It's going to be sticky!!!

TempPlunge

    Be alert for the potential of flash flooding.  If multiple clusters of storms happen to roam in the same spot rain amounts in excess of 3" are likely. A flash flood watch has been issued.  Please check in with Katie, Rick and Marc this afternoon. I would imagine some sort of severe weather watch will be issued later today. Stay safe! -Jude Redfield-

04/27/2017

ANOTHER SEVERE RISK For Sunday Night...

The blog Katie McGraw wrote earlier today focused on the severe threat Friday night. Unfortunately, it doesn't end there. Late Sunday into the overnight hours we have another risk for strong storms. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting locations to our southwest, but in my opinion this should also include our area...

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Why do I think we need to be on guard Sunday night? Well, for starters the wind energy is fierce! At the 850mb level, or 5,000 feet above the ground, winds speeds rapidly increase to 75 knots. A severe thunderstorm is defined as winds 58 mph or greater, so if a storm drags that wind down to the surface we could easily see localized damage...

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If we don't have enough Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), then the powerful shear would cause storms to topple over. CAPE is a measure of instability through the depth of the atmosphere, and is related to updraft strength in thunderstorms. The NAM computer model shows about 800 units while the GFS has closer to 400 units. While this isn't an overwhelming amount of instability, it's certainly enough to support severe storms given the wind energy. It's also important to note the updraft strength is key to hail formation. The longer hail stones are suspended in the storm, the larger they can get. In this case, I don't see hail exceeding 2" in diameter, but 1" hail is definitely in the cards... 

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Last but most certainly not least, let's take a look at the Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH). SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1 and 3 km layers above ground level. When values begin to exceed 250 units, it usually suggests an increased threat of tornadoes. The map below shows 300 units in our area, so an isolated tornado warning or two is possible. Usually, cold fronts that arrive at night bring us what's referred to as a squall line. A squall line is a group of storms arranged in a line, often accompanied by high wind and heavy rain. They tend to pass quickly and are less prone to produce tornadoes than supercells. That means if we get a tornado, it would likely be a quick spin-up...  

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Ok, to give you a quick recap all modes of severe weather are POSSIBLE late Sunday into the overnight hours. Damaging winds would be the main threat. The exact timing will become more clear in the coming days so please check back with us on a daily basis. Marc will be on at 10 and I'll catch you at 11 on WDRB. Jude Redfield will also have lots to chat about in the morning. Have a good night!  

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather





 

Severe Weather Risk for Friday Night into Saturday

Severe Risk:

The Storm Prediction Center has increased our storm risk for tomorrow and issued an "Enhanced Risk" for severe weather for a portion of our area on Friday, mainly west of I-65. This is an area of greater (relative to a slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity. The rest of Kentuckiana is under is under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather.  A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening Friday night through Saturday morning.  The main threats will be damaging gusty winds, large hail, frequent lightning and localized heavy rain. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.  Flash flooding may also be a concern with areas that see repeated storms. 

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Set up:

A warm front will be around the Ohio Valley on Friday and the placement will be critical for our shower and storm potential, especially in reference to severe weather. Computer models are not in complete agreement about the timing or intensity of the storms. We do know there will be a strong cap in place most of the day on Friday, but exactly when that cap breaks and storms begin to fire off is still a bit in question. So the storms could begin earlier than what Advancetrak suggests below. 

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Ingredients:

Instability: Temps will be warming and dew points will be increasing as well. We know that an increase in heat AND moisture both increase instability and instability is key to severe weather development. Models are showing an abundance of CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, a measurement of instability overnight on Friday into Saturday, that is definitely enough for strong to severe storms to develop.   

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Wind shear profiles will be supportive of organized discrete cells. There is also enough wind energy, mid level winds are around 50 kts and peaking at 60 kts, which is plenty for severe weather and there is also directional wind shear, which is a change of wind direction with height and would suggest the potential for rotating storms. This would support large hail and isolated tornados. 

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Timing: 

As I mentioned above,  there is disagreement among the models about when storms will start and end on Friday through Saturday. Scroll through the images of Advancetrack below to get an idea of the timing and coverage of storms.  

Advancetrak likes the idea of the cap breaking late in the day on Friday and storms firing off at night, but it is a possibility they could be earlier. We will continue to tweak this forecast over the next day.  

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Storms will definitely become more numerous overnight and this is our best chance for storms and for them to become severe. 

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We will still have several storms across the area right when many events are supposed to be starting in Louisville; such as the Great Balloon Race and the marathon/mini. 

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Sigh... more uncertainty continues into Saturday afternoon. The warm front is expected to move north in the morning and afternoon on Saturday and leave the area capped once again to prevent any more storm development. HOWEVER, if it is broken then we could see more showers and storms during this time frame, some of which could be strong to severe. 

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Because this is a CHANGING forecast, be sure to join Marc and Rick this evening on WDRB News! Jude and I will have the latest updates tomorrow as well during the morning and afternoon. If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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