SEVERE RISK? Rain & Storms Thursday, Then Again Saturday...
Aside from a few hit or miss storms today and tomorrow, our next solid rain chance moves in late Thursday. Now that we are well into spring storm season, it's always a good idea to inspect the data to see whether or not anything could be severe. The map below tells us how much instability and wind energy the storms have to work with as they roll through. According to the GFS, there's about 1,000 units of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in our area with 15-25 mph winds Thursday evening. We would refer to this as a high CAPE, low shear environment. Storms would briefly pulse up, then collapse. As they fall apart, you can get some gusty winds so we can't rule out a warning or two. The best chance for a stronger storm would end up in our northwest counties of Indiana. The rest of us just have to deal with downpours and lightning.
Let's move on to Saturday afternoon. At this point, rain still appears to be a good bet, but we are still a few days out so the timing could change a little. Luckily, severe weather doesn't pose a threat. According to the GFS, there's virtually no CAPE in Louisville. This would make a soggy situation for Thunder Over Louisville with cool highs in the 50's. Down in southern Kentucky as you get closer to the Tennessee border, you can see about 200 units of CAPE with 50 - 60 mph winds. There may be a few strong storms down there in the high shear, low CAPE environment. Join Marc and I on WDRB tonight for more specific timing of rain chances during the air show and fireworks.