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04/16/2017

The Storm Prediction Center Monitoring Severe Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion on the potential for strong storms in our area late this afternoon/evening.  Here is there discussion...

Mcd0505

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with thunderstorms across this region through the afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely owing to an overall marginal severe weather threat.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across this region as of 1855Z along a pre-frontal trough extending from northeast to southwest across the OH Valley, and with renewed development in southeastern MO/northeastern AR along part of a MCS that formed overnight across the southern/central Plains. The airmass across the Mesoscale Discussion area is weakly unstable per 18Z RAP Mesoanalysis (MLCAPE generally 500-1250 J/kg), and is forecast to remain so through the remainder of the afternoon owing to modest 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 6.0-6.5 C/km). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and generally 25-30 kt mid-level flow may promote some strong to damaging winds with the more robust updrafts. This localized damaging wind threat may be somewhat greater in association with the eastward moving cluster of thunderstorms approaching southern IL/western KY. In addition to the isolated wind threat, there may be a marginal hail threat with any thunderstorm that can remain mostly discrete along the pre-frontal trough, as weak effective bulk shear is forecast to remain somewhat supportive of updraft organization. Overall, the lack of both stronger instability and shear will likely limit the magnitude of the severe threat, and watch issuance is unlikely.

So what do I think?

Cutting through all the weather jargon, I agree that the threat for damaging winds or hail is low.  However, like we've already seen today, the National Weather Service might issue a warning or two with some of the strongest storms.   

In addition, I believe the bigger threat will come in the form of excessive rainfall for parts of the area and flash flooding will be possible as we see multiple rounds of heavy storms developing as we head into this evening.  

Here's a look at the latest run of the HRRR, hi-res computer model...

At1

At2

At3

At4

At5

At6

I'll be sure to keep you posted through my social pages as the storms arrive.  Stay tuned and have a safe Easter everybody!  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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