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05/16/2017

Dry Stretch Ending: When Storms Return to Kentuckiana

It has been a nice couple of days, with dry weather and sunshine as high pressure is positioned just to our SE. We are also continuing to slowly warm. Each day gets just a degree or two warmer and we could hit 90, although all the greenery that has been very saturated lately (a process known as evapotranspiration) may keep that happening. But we do have winds increasing today and they will be out of the SW. That could help the boost happen. However, this blog is about the changes that are coming! How rain will return to the area and when. 

There is a lot to look at in the graphic below. I mentioned the high pressure. There is also a low pressure over MN and that will pass to the north, through the Great Lakes. That will drag a cold front through the area by the end of the week, on Thursday night. The front will stall and keep showers/storms in the forecast as a new low from the plains moves toward our area. 

Image 1

Turning Humid: 

We are increasing the dew points, which will in turn make it feel more muggy across Kentuckiana. Once the dew point hits 60 degrees, you start to notice the humidity. By the end of the week, it will be even more noticeable. 

Image 2

As I mentioned above, we are warming and we will be close to 90 degrees. If we reach 90s, we will be in record breaking territory today and tomorrow. I doubt we break any, but here is the Almanac data and the records in jeopardy. 

Image 3

Increase, increase, increase. 

A lot of parameters are increasing! The dew points, the winds and eventually the clouds. The winds have started to pick up the pace today, but tomorrow they will be gusting even faster. Up to 30-35 mph at times. 

The clouds will begin to increase tomorrow as well, ahead of this next system during the late afternoon and evening, but we will still see another dry day. 

At 4

At 5

The cold front will be well out to our west by Wednesday evening, but showers will be approaching the area. 

At 1

 We begin to see a few spotty showers and storms early on Thursday morning, around day break. 

At 6

Notice the coverage increase by the afternoon and evening on Thursday. 

At 7

This will be hit or miss type showers and storms. The images below should be taken as a gauge for coverage and not exactly what will happen on Thursday. 

At 8

In terms of severe weather, there is plenty of instability, with CAPE values around 2000 J/Kg but the bulk shear values at the mid levels are not super impressive. They are only around 20-25 kts. Currently, there is no severe threat posted by the Storm Prediction Center. We are just under the general thunderstorm potential on Thursday. We will of course be keeping you posted about changes that develop.  

Image 6

Showers/storms do not end on Thursday, we will continue to have scattered showers and storms on Friday. 

At 9

In fact, after the return of showers and storms, we will have a very unsettled pattern setting up for much of the extended period and into the weekend. To learn more about the timing of those storms, be sure to tune into the news this evening on WDRB with Marc and Rick. 

I will see you tomorrow from 11:30-12:30. Until then, we can connect on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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