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07/13/2017

NOWCAST: Storms & Severe Threat for Thursday into Friday Morning

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a"Slight Risk" for severe weather for southern Indiana and metro Louisville. They expanded the slight risk area, farther south, around noon today. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

The potential threats will be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, gusty damaging winds, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. 

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Ingredients: 

Wind energy is than impressive today, but there is plenty of instability across the area, with all the heat and high dew points in the mid 70s. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy (a measurement of instability) is around  1500-2500 J/kg through this afternoon and early evening. This could allow for locally strong wind gusts.

There are also weak wind profiles and this is actually allowing for storms to be slow. With the other main threat being heavy rain and slow storms, flash flooding is a concern. In fact, we have already seen issues this morning in Lawrence County. In one hour, radar estimates were showing 1-2'' of rain. 

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Timing: 

We have already seen a few showers and storms across the area. A strong line of storms for southern IN and a few isolated downpours south of the KY Parkways.  I have been watching this line of storms since it was by Evansville and over the last hour (1-2 pm) the line has fallen apart, which is what the hi-res data suggested.  

With that said, that is not our only chance to see storms today. There is a chance for more scattered storms this afternoon and the cold front is still positioned out to our west and will drop south, bringing more storms to the region late tonight. But we will have plenty of dry time as well. 

Scroll through Advancetrak images to get an idea of coverage and timing. But as always, use it as a gauge only. 
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During the late afternoon, data suggests there could be scattered activity south of 64.

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Notice this evening, most of the area will be dry. Although, there could be a stray shower or storm. 
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Then more storms will ignite once again overnight into early Friday morning. 

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This is not the only chance for storms tomorrow. More storms are possible later in the day as well. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information on that and to find out when we might get some relief from the HEAT! 

If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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