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08/12/2017

ECLIPSE OUTLOOK: Targeting those Rain Chances for the Big Day!

It's early, but perhaps not too early to start talking about that forecast for the August 21st eclipse.  

While it is entirely too early to talk specifics, it's not too early to start talking about chances for rain. 

Eps_uv200_c_noram_39

Turning to the Euro's 50-member ensemble forecast model, we can start to get a picture of what to expect for the 21st.  Today's run showing an upper "trough" located over the Great Lakes with a strong upper "ridge" over the South Central US.

Timing and tracks of these upper features will be critical in determining how the weather will pan out for us that day, but the current ensemble data suggests only about a 10 or 20% chance for rain during the 24 hour period ending at 8 pm on the 21st.  

Eps_qpf24_0.01_conus_39

That's pretty encouraging.  While the lower resolution, 16 member GFS ensemble is not quite as optimistic, it's only showing between a 20 and 30% for us during the same time frame.

Gefs_qpf24_0.1_noram_39

Keep fingers crossed that this holds!  I'll have a full update on the Eclipse Forecast tomorrow evening.  

Stay tuned!

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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