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53 posts from August 2017

08/31/2017

Harvey Approaches Kentuckiana: Timing and Rainfall Totals

Summary and Threats:

What remains of Harvey, now a tropical depression, is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley late tonight and tomorrow morning. It will move through the area during the day tomorrow and exit by Saturday afternoon. 

  • This will be a widespread and heavy rain event. Flash flooding will be possible.
  • Winds will be gusty. Expect wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph.
  • Isolated brief spin ups or weak tornadoes are very common with tropical systems. The better chance for this is going to be in SE KY, outside of our viewing area. However, I don't want to say it's completely off the table, due to the nature of this type of system. 
  • Temperatures will also be falling during the day. We have a high of 65 degrees, but that will be very early in the day! 

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Timing:

After a few scattered showers ahead of the system today, the main event will arrive after midnight tonight. The heaviest rainfall will be moving into the region overnight and persist into Friday. These heavier showers and storms will bring a good soaking of rain to much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana. 

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Showers and storms will move from south to north and our coverage will become greater with time.  

Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get an idea of coverage for the rest of the afternoon on Friday. 

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Rain will become lighter during the day Friday but it will continue through Saturday morning or early afternoon. 

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Rainfall Totals: 

Flash flooding is a concern for tomorrow. There is a flash flood watch in effect. There could be street flooding as well as creek and river rises as well. The peak period of concern for potential quick rises and localized flooding looks to be from late tonight into Friday morning. While significant river flooding is not expected, greatest river rises will likely be in the Green, Barren and Rough River Basins. 

Below is the raw model data for the NAM, GFS and EURO, when all is said and done, by Saturday night. Notice the NAM is most aggressive for the metro area. But everyone is expected to see some rain. I continue to say the rule is about 1-3'', with locally higher amounts. More specific details on that below. 

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And below is the graphic the WDRB Weather Team created, taking all the information we have to create a forecast.

Notice southern Indiana, near Lawrence, Jackson and Jennings should see the least amount of rainfall. The highest rainfall amounts are south and west of the KY Parkways from E-town/Hardin County down to the south near Grayson and Hart Counties. Metro is mostly in the 4-6'', while Washington, Scott, Jefferson (IN) Counties are in the 2-4'' region. 

 IMAGE 5

New data rolls in at 9:30 tonight and this graphic/forecast could change. So be sure to watch the news this evening, with Marc on WDRB, for the latest information and with Jude tomorrow morning as rain is moving into the area.

If and when storms go severe or if flooding occurs, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below.

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

 

 

A Second NWS Conference Call Regarding Harvey Remnants Heading Our Way

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a second conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds for late tonight and all day Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey makes its way toward Kentuckiana in the next few hours. 

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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Image 1

Image 5

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Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information. If and when storms go severe or if flooding occurs, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below.

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

Friday Weather Mess Is An Understatement

From Jude Redfield...

    The heavy rain begins after midnight tonight in southern Kentucky. This will pull north and be in Louisville before dawn Friday. The Friday morning commute will be nasty and the Friday afternoon commute will be equally nasty if not worse. Howling wind will gust to near 40mph during the day. Temps will fall into the 50s during the day and it will feel like early November. The rain will continue through Friday night before tapering to scattered showers Saturday morning. The period of heaviest rain is likely from 4am Friday to 4am Saturday.

WKU

    Lots of confusion has already set in since our rain is the result of Harvey so I'm trying to keep our expected rain amounts as simple as possible.   Everyone in our viewing is locked in to get at least 1"-3". The lower amounts will be in our far northern counties in Indiana.  Kentucky will end up with the highest totals. Louisville Metro looks to be locked in with at least 2"-4". It is very much possible to see more than 4" in the metro depending on how individual rain bands develop.  The highest probability for rain amounts nearing 5" (or more) will shake out south of the river closer to the parkways.

WKUGraphic

    The first couple inches of rain won't be that bad of a thing. Some areas actually need it. The problem arrives after the first couple of inches. Excessive runoff is likely in the afternoon and evening. Please be on sump pump alert tomorrow and keep a watchful eye on rivers, creeks and streams.  Weekend boating plans on the Ohio River will be dangerous with floating debris.

WHite brick

    Make sure to follow up with Katie, Marc, Rick and Jeremy later today for the details on this evolving weather mess. -Jude Redfield

 

08/30/2017

OCEAN OR INTERSTATE? Waves With White Caps...

Whoa! This video emerged on August 29th along I-10 near the border of Jefferson and Chambers counties, about 65 miles east of downtown Houston. It shows a motorboat navigating the choppy waters created by Harvey’s epic rainfall. Notice the waves with white caps seen 20 miles inland. I am honestly speechless... 

Video Credit: Storyful Rights Management

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

FLASH FLOOD WATCH Issued

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for a large chunk of our viewing area, including Louisville from tomorrow evening through Friday night. The combination of Tropical Storm Harvey's remnants and an incoming cold front will lead to the possibility of locally heavy  rain and flooding.

See an image of the counties included below as well as detailed information from the NWS. 

  Warnings

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for central Kentucky and extreme southern
Indiana.

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night

* Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Harvey will bring heavy
rain to the region.

* Local flooding will be possible, especially late Thursday night
into Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Marc and Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am.

We will also be keeping you informed, as Harvey approaches Kentuckiana, on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

NWS Conference Call Concerning Tropical Storm Harvey Heading Our Way

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for hazardous weather for Thursday and Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey makes its way toward Kentuckiana. 

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

Image 1

Image 5

Image 5
Image 5

Image 5

Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information. If and when storms go severe or if flooding occurs, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

08/29/2017

HARVEY BROKE RECORD For The Most Rain Ever From A Tropical System In The US...

It's official! Harvey broke a record for the most rain ever recorded from a tropical system in the United States! This total exceeds the previous record of 48" set during tropical cyclone Amelia in Medina, Texas back in 1978. Ranger Station, Hawaii has logged isolated reports of greater amounts at high elevations from HIKI, but even those numbers are in jeopardy. At last check, Cedar Bayou measured a mind-blowing 51.88" of rain and it's still falling... 

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Just to give you an idea of what 50" of rain can do, take a look at this time-lapse video from a garage in Houston. You can see people doing some last-minute prep before the breach Saturday night. It crested around noon on Sunday and finally receded by Monday morning. The high-water mark was at 48.5 feet, keep in mind the garage floor itself is about 2 feet above street level. When you take into account the volume of water unloaded in the United States from a single storm, Harvey has no rival. UNBELIEVABLE! 

Video Credit: RoismanDani

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

Harvey is picking up steam and heading this way...

Former category 4 Hurricane Harvey continues to menace the Gulf Coast with more heavy rain and wind. 

Tropics

At last check the tropical storm was located about 80 miles SSW of Port Arthor Texas with sustained winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 997 mb. 

Tropics track

Movement is towards the Norh-North East and fortunately is expected to pick up speed over the next couple of days with the National Hurricane Center forecasting the storm to track into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys by the end of the week and into the weekend.  

If anything, current model data suggests the low may travel a little faster and a little further north than the current forecast track.  

Let's time it out with the current run of the GFS...

At1

The GFS shows Havey making a second landfall on the TX/LA border tonight and into the early morning hours on Wednesday.

At2

From there, the storm lifts north through the Lower Mississippi River Valley as it slowly weakens perhaps pushing rain into our area by late on Thursday.

At3

A large band of rain consolidates ahead of the low and enters our area by early on Friday.

At4

The rain continues for most of the day on Friday and could be quite heavy at times.

At5

The actual low itself is projected by the GFS to move right across our area Saturday morning before lifting late in the day.

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While this would mean a wet start to the weekend, it could also mean improving conditions for the second half with rain chances going down late Saturday and into Sunday. 

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So how much are we talking about locally? 

If current data holds true, then rainfall locally could be excessive.  While nothing like what they are dealing with in SE Texas and Louisiana, it will could be a real soaker for our area too with much of the data showing between 2 and 4 inches possible across our area.  Although the rain would be beneficial, it could also lead to some minor flooding issues here. 

Rainfall projection

The heaviest of the rain looks to occur Friday and into Friday night.  In addition to the heavy rain, winds will be elevated with gusts to 30 or 40 mph possible.  

Marc and Rick will have a full update on what to expect on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy 6sx

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Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

08/28/2017

HARVEY HEADED To The Ohio Valley! How Much Rain To Expect...

Later in the week, the remnants of Harvey are expected to move up into the Ohio Valley. After seeing the way Texas looks right now, you probably want to know how much rain to expect. Let's begin with the GFS computer model that has a wide range from north to south across our area. It shows over 1" for Indiana, around 2" in Louisville with up to 4" in southern Kentucky...

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On the other hand, the EURO computer model shows a rather uniform 2-4" for all of Kentuckiana. Obviously, this will be nothing like the catastrophic and and life-threatening flooding occurring down in Texas. When all is said and done down there, some locations may measure close to 50" of rain! Closer to home, minor stream and creek flooding may become an issue along with water ponding on the roadways.


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In my opinion, Harvey could drop off a solid 1-3" of rain. Some of it could be heavy at times as it brings up tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. A lot of people are trying to make plans for Labor Day Weekend and this could seriously have an impact on whether or not you want to be outside. Join Marc and I on WDRB for the latest on rainfall timing.   

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather




 

Harvey's Impact On Our Holiday Weekend

From Jude Redfield...

    Since Saturday morning rainfall amounts surrounding Houston have exceeded 20". An additional 10" - 15" is possible.

White brick 2

    This storm is headed our way for the weekend. It will be a MUCH WEAKER version when it hits the Ohio & Tennessee Valley.  The National Hurricane Center brings this storm to western Tennessee by Friday.

WKUGraphic

    The map below plots all computer model tracks into the weekend. We are looking at rising rain/storm chances for parts of the holiday weekend.

WHite brick

    My best estimate at this point has rain developing late Friday. Scattered showers and storms look most numerous Friday night into Sunday morning. Most of the Harvey's energy should be east by Labor Day.  Please understand this is a VERY COMPLEX system so expect changes with the rain timing and eventual storm path.

WKU

    We are forecasting the remnants of Harvey in the region this weekend. We are NOT forecasting catastrophic flooding around here. This looks to be the kind of storm that will lead to some of us having to alter outdoor plans at times Labor Day weekend. -Jude Redfield-