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08/11/2017

NOWCAST: Friday's Storm Chances, Impacts, Timing & Severe Threat

Severe Threat:

As expected, SPC increased our storm threat from a general thunderstorm risk to a marginal risk. A marginal risk of severe weather is an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

The potential threats will be brief heavy rain, gusty damaging winds and brief small hail.  

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Set Up: 

This is a low pressure and there is a weak cold front, more a cool front when you see how it will impact the temperatures. You will notice more of a change in humidity than temperatures. It will cross our region tonight. 
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Check out our change in dew points following the front. Saturday and Sunday will be more comfortable than today! 

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Ingredients: 

  1. There is a forcing mechanism: the cold front, its weak, but still a boundary.
  2. There is marginal instability, as shown below. Highest CAPE values are around 1000-1500 J/KG.
  3. Wind energy also looks to be just enough for strong to severe storms. Bulk shear is around 35 kts, which is the bare minimum for severe criteria.
  4. The combo of the two aforementioned ingredients could support some strong to severe storms. 

My thoughts? Any strong to severe would be VERY isolated. Ingredients are just meeting criteria, so it is not super likely, but not off the table.

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NOWCAST:

A few showers and storms started almost immediately after the clock struck noon. But storm chances will increase with time today.

Here is our radar right after 1 pm. 
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 Timing: 

As mentioned above, we are already seeing a few showers and they will continue to push east. The chance for showers and storms increases with time today and from west to east. Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get an idea of coverage and timing for the next 24 hours 

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Showers and storms will still be around this evening and could impact your evening plans or commute! So keep that in mind! It doesn't look like everyone is guaranteed to see rain and I think we will have periods of dry time as well. 
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A few stray showers look to linger into Saturday overnight. 

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Most will be dry on Saturday morning and afternoon, but leaving a 20% chance for a few pesky showers. Most will clear out by the afternoon and we will see decreasing clouds. 

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Are there anymore storm chances for the weekend?  What about next weekend? Find out this evening during WDRB News with Marc and Rick!

If and when storms go severe, we will be the first to let you know! This is especially true on social media. Be sure to like our Facebook pages or follow us on Twitter. The links to my pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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