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08/10/2017

Rain Chances Ramp up on Friday

Today, there are a few showers across the area, but most of us stay dry. Notice, majority of showers are in eastern KY, but there is a new group of showers and storms out to the west! That will impact us tomorrow, giving us a better chance to see rain. 

Image 1

Set Up: 

This is a low pressure and there is a weak cold front, more a cool front when you see how it will impact the temperatures from Friday to Saturday. It will cross our region tomorrow night. A few showers and storms will fire off starting as early as tomorrow afternoon and into Friday evening. 

Image 1

Severe threat? 

For now, we are not under any risks from SPC, just a general storm risk for tomorrow. But if I know them, we will be under a marginal risk by tomorrow. 

Image 2

Why do I think they will upgrade us?

  1. The ingredients. There is a forcing mechanism: the cold front, its weak but still a boundary.
  2. There is decent instability, as shown below. CAPE values are around 1000-1500 J/KG.
  3. Wind energy also looks sufficient for strong to severe storms. Bulk shear is around 35-40 kts, which is the bare minimum for severe criteria.
  4. The combo of the two aforementioned ingredients could support some small hail and gusty winds as well as heavy rain. 

 Image 2

Timing: 

There could be a few spotty showers and storms during the afternoon tomorrow but the chance for storms will increase with time tomorrow. Notice on Advancetrak, there are scattered showers and storms ahead of the front in the early evening. 

At 1

They will continue to push eastward throughout the evening and could impact your evening plans! So keep that in mind! 

At 2

Most of the storms look to be on the eastern fringe of our viewing area by late Friday night. 
At 2

A few stray showers will continue into Saturday overnight. 

At 2

Are there anymore storm chances for the weekend?  Find out this evening during WDRB News with Marc and Rick!

If and when storms go severe, we will be the first to let you know! This is especially true on social media. Be sure to like our Facebook pages or follow us on Twitter. The links to my pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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