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10/04/2017

New Tropical System Forming in the Gulf: Impacts to Kentuckiana

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression 16, is strengthening in the Caribbean Sea, near Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. It currently has sustained wind speeds of 35 mph and gusting to 45 mph. Pressure is at 1005 and it is moving NW at 7 mph.

Environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. There will be a low-shear environment for the cyclone, which will possibly result in rapid intensification over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traveling over rather warm and deep waters.

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TRACK: Subject to change, keep updated with the forecast track and intensity. 

It will more than likely become Tropical Storm "Nate", in the next day, once the sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. This will result in tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Thursday.

The steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

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Here is another look at the track with the earliest ETA of tropical storm or hurricane force winds. 

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As it strengthens, it could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane (NHC is forecasting a category 1 hurricane) this weekend. It looks to make landfall on Sunday, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts, so the confidence in the forecast is low. The track could change in the coming days. For now, residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.

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For now, TD16, will continue to move to the NE toward the Ohio River Valley. Notice the cone of uncertainty includes part of Kentucky. Some models bring it even farther west. 
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BACK AT HOME IN KENTUCKIANA:

Sunday through Tuesday are the days in question. We could potentially see impacts from this tropical system. The forecast is unsettled with rain possible for several days from this system coupled with an upper level low, that will be digging southward.

We will still be generally dry by Saturday morning, our rain chances look to increase through the day. But it is still only a 20% chance at this point (Wednesday afternoon).
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A better chance for rain arrives on Sunday through Tuesday. Scroll through the images of Advancetrak to get idea of coverage and timing. 

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The aforementioned upper low will also drop our temperatures significantly by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Because this is an uncertain forecast, it is important to not take the track and intensity to the bank. Be sure to keep an eye on the forecast all week long. Marc and Rick will have the latest tonight on WDRB News. 

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-Katie McGraw 

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