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57 posts from February 2018

02/23/2018

SEVERE RISK: When Strong Storms Bring Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds...

Flooding isn't the only thing you need to worry about this weekend. A line of strong to severe storms may also deliver gusty winds late tomorrow into the overnight hours. With the recent rain, our ground is completely saturated and it won't take much wind to knock trees down. Notice the Storm Prediction Center placed almost everyone under their "slight risk" for severe weather...

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Here's the last thing you want to see on future radar...more rain! This round of scattered storms arrives late tonight and will last through Saturday morning. Those pops of red on there indicate pockets of heavy rain which would allow for additional flood warnings. Please use caution if you have any travel plans and remember, don't drive across roads covered in water!

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The risk for severe storms doesn't really come into play until late Saturday/Saturday night. Let's say from 4 PM Saturday through 4 AM Sunday. There's certainly enough wind energy aloft to support severe storms. Storms that come in during the late afternoon and evening would have a bit more fuel in their tank. However, they won't be quite as widespread as they will be overnight...

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At this point, be on guard for strong to severe storms late Saturday and overnight. While damaging winds are the main threat, we can't rule out an isolated tornado or two. With a warm front lifting north, backing winds enhance the possibility rotation. If a tornado warning was to occur, late afternoon is the time when they would be most likely. As a cold front plows through overnight, we transition over to more of a wind threat. A handful of severe thunderstorm warnings could be issued for gusts over 60 mph.

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Once the cold front clears our area, we are done with the rain until the middle of next week. That will give us a much needed chance to dry out, but not before we add another 1-3" of rain. Marc and I will be on WDRB at 10 & 11 updating the river flooding. 

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

 

 

NWS Hosts Second Conference Call Concerning River Flooding

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the several rounds of heavy rain that has led to flooding. And we are not done. It will only get worse in the coming days as waves of heavy rain will continue during the next two days.

This could potentially be the worst flooding we have seen in decades. It could end up as one of the top ten worst flooding events for the Ohio River. The NWS has updated the McAlpine Upper to 34.9' by Monday. That is significant, because if we get over 34.11', that would be the 10th worst flooding event in history, knocking out an 85 year old record holder. 

To put this in perspective, let's compare recent flooding events like in 2015 McAlpine Upper got to 29.77'. In 2011, it got to 31.13'. One of the worst floods in recent times was in 1997 and that was 38.76'. The worst flooding ever was in 1937 at 52.15', but that was before locks were put in place to prevent catastrophic river flooding events.  

The list of top 10 worst flooding events at McApline Upper are below. 

(1) 52.15 ft on 01/27/1937
(2) 42.10 ft on 03/08/1945
(3) 41.70 ft on 02/16/1884
(4) 41.20 ft on 03/12/1964
(5) 39.50 ft on 02/16/1883
(6) 39.40 ft on 04/02/1913
(7) 38.76 ft on 03/07/1997
(8) 36.40 ft on 01/22/1907
(9) 36.00 ft on 04/19/1948
(10) 34.10 ft on 03/23/1933

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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Marc, Rick and I will be here and keeping you informed for the rest of today. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information and updates on area rivers. And I will have updates on WDRB in the Morning from 6-9 am. We will also be posting on all of our social media pages. The links to my social media pages are below. Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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02/22/2018

Severe Weather Risk Issued for Saturday

Severe Risk:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an "Slight Risk" for severe weather for a small part of our area for Saturday. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. I think the risk will be expanded to include more of our viewing area with later updates from SPC. 

The main threats will be damaging gusty winds and localized heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. A few rotating storms that could lead to isolated tornadoes are also possible. 

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Set up:

A cold front slid through the area recently, but it did not CLEAR our region. It is hanging out nearby and will lift back up north as a warm front tomorrow and wobble around our area for the next few days. It will finally move through as a strong cold front. Temps will get to the 70s on Friday and Saturday and then drop again by Sunday. 

Ingredients:

Instability: Heat and moisture (or dew points) both are fuel for storms. The increase of each, will in turn, increase our instability.

It is probably hard to believe severe weather is even possible, because it is not warm right now. That will change by tomorrow. Temps will warm overnight tonight and we will be back into the 70s tomorrow and Saturday. As we continue to warm over the next day, we will also be increasing the dew points. Once the dew point hits 60 degrees, you start to notice the humidity and it is also an important value when discussing instability. 

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We know that an increase in heat AND moisture both increase instability and instability is key to severe weather development. Models are showing around 400-700 J/kg of CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, a measurement of instability, for Saturday night at this time.  That is pretty low and could limit the severe threat. At this point, I would consider our instability conditional.  Factors of instability will be how much rain we see and how many breaks in the clouds we get. 

The more impressive ingredient is wind shear. Bulk shear is roughly 60-70 mph or 50-60 kts. That is certainly enough wind energy or wind speed shear for strong to severe storms to develop. There is also directional shear, which is a change of wind direction with height as you move up the atmosphere. In Saturday's scenario, we will have backing winds, which is why the tornado threat is on the table. 

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Timing: 

Scroll through the images of Advancetrack below to get an idea of the timing and coverage of storms for Saturday and Saturday night

Showers and storms will be on and off all day. Clouds could be extensive. As mentioned above, this could be a limiting factor to instability. 
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However, there will likely be breaks from the rain as well and possibly even some breaks in the clouds. If there are breaks in the clouds, the better the chance for stronger or severe storms. 
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There will be waves of heavy rain, through, throughout the entire day. 

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The best chance for strong to severe storms would be in Saturday evening ... 

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And Saturday night. 
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We will be drying up by Sunday, early in the morning. Then there will be decreasing clouds throughout the day with cooler temps (although still unseasonably warm for this time of the year). 

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To find out the details about the rest of the weekend and the possible historic flooding potential, be sure to join Marc and Rick this evening on WDRB News. Again, we will be making tweaks to the forecast over the next few days, so be sure to keep up to date with the forecast! 

If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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UPDATE: Summary of NWS Conference Call about Flooding Risk

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for heavy rain that is already leading to flooding on many area rivers and will only get worse in the coming days as waves of heavy rain will continue during the next few days.

This could potentially be the worst flooding we have seen in decades. It could end up as one of the top ten worst flooding events for the Ohio River. The NWS has updated the McAlpine Upper from 30' to 34' by Monday. That is significant. If we got over 34.10', that would be the 10th worst flooding event in history. To put this in perspective, let's compare recent flooding events like in 2015 McAlpine Upper got to 29.77'. In 2011, it got to 31.13'. One of the worst floods in recent times was in 1997 and that was 38.76'. The worst flooding ever was in 1937 at 52.15', but that was before locks were put in place to prevent catastrophic river flooding events.  

The list of top 10 worst flooding events at McApline Upper are below. 

1) 52.15 ft on 01/27/1937
(2) 42.10 ft on 03/08/1945
(3) 41.70 ft on 02/16/1884
(4) 41.20 ft on 03/12/1964
(5) 39.50 ft on 02/16/1883
(6) 39.40 ft on 04/02/1913
(7) 38.76 ft on 03/07/1997
(8) 36.40 ft on 01/22/1907
(9) 36.00 ft on 04/19/1948
(10) 34.10 ft on 03/23/1933

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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*NOTE: The graph here for McApline Upper is outdated 
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Marc, Rick and I will be here and keeping you informed for the rest of today. Be sure to watch the news this evening with Marc and Rick on WDRB for the latest information and updates on area rivers. Jude will have updates on WDRB in the Morning from 5-9 am, when another round of heavy rain will be moving through...again. We will also be posting on all of our social media pages. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Severe Weather Risk Issued

From Jude Redfield...

    In addition to the flood threat comes the chance for scattered severe storms late Saturday. The warm front late Saturday afternoon could have isolated severe storms (possibly rotating storms). The cold front arriving around midnight could mean a line of storms with the primary threat being damaging straight-line winds. The time to watch is Saturday afternoon through the overnight. The severe threat and storms should clear the area before sunrise Sunday.

Temps

    The map below highlights the warm front Saturday afternoon. If we have any clearing in the afternoon this will help storms intensify. Notice the cold front out west. This will be the late night severe storm maker.

Stormview

    The map below shows the cold front approaching at night with the line of storms blitzing into the region. If we are soaked with rain leading up to this point the risk for severe storms will be much lower at night! If the intensity holds with the approaching storms the primary threat on the cold front would be damaging straight-line wind with the lower threat being rotating storms.

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    It's clear we have many variables this far out so stay tuned as we get closer. -Jude Redfield-

02/21/2018

Flood Update: Latest Rises and Forecast for Area Rivers

Remember: TURN AROUND; DON'T DROWN! Much of Kentuckiana is under a flood watch. Many area rivers have flood warnings. It doesn't take much water for things to go downhill fast.

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Flood warnings continue for many rivers in our area including the Ohio. If you live or travel near the river, you already know it has swollen out of its banks. Here's a look at the latest watch and warnings. The watch includes most of Kentuckiana. There are flood warnings all along the Ohio River at Clifty Creek, McAlpine Upper/Lower, Cannelton Lock and Tell City. There are also warnings for the East Fork White River in Lawrence and Jackson Counties and the Muscatatuck in Jackson County. 

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Additional rain will only make things worse. With saturated soil and rivers running high, another 3 - 5" of rain makes flooding a serious concern over the next couple days. A wave of showers, and a few thunderstorms, will move through the region tonight. Then, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday through late Saturday night. This is likely going to result in excessive runoff and flooding. Learn more about the exact timing of the waves of rain in another blog here. 

This rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to excessive runoff which will cause already swollen rivers to rise more. Significant and continued rises on many area rivers are likely. Ponding of water on roads and in low lying and poor drainage areas is possible late tonight. 

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OHIO RIVER: 

The McAlpine Upper is now experiencing minor flooding at 25.31 feet and it will continue to rise near 29.1 feet by Sunday. That is still considered minor flooding. At this height, more sections of River Road end up under water, the Beachland Beach area is cut off and Lime Kiln Lane floods south of River Road. Multiple areas on Highway 66 in southern IN are expected to flood, continuing into the weekend. Portions of River Rd. in Louisville are already closed due flooding and more flooding is expected by the weekend. The 3rd street ramp on I-64 closes at 29'. Access to some homes along the river are cut off.

The McAlpine Lower is currently also experiencing minor flooding at 56.38 feet, this is about a foot over the flood stage and is expected to be at 60.2 feet by Sunday afternoon. If you add less than 3 feet of water, Overbrook Road floods south of Lake Dreamland Road. 

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The Ohio River at Tell City is experiencing minor flooding at 42.6' and will get to 45.3' by Saturday, that is moderate flooding and is only five feet from major flooding. And it is important to note these river forecasts only go out 48 hours.

The Ohio River at Clifty Creek is in the action stage and means you need to prepare for minor flooding. 

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Other Rivers: 

Rolling Fork: 

The Rolling Fork is also a river of interest. While there is not a warning in effect right now, it may rise to moderate flood late this weekend, and there is a 1 in 3 chance that it hits major flood stage. 

Green River and Rough River

At Dundee, minor flood is in the forecast by Friday with moderate flooding possible at Dundee by Saturday night. At least minor flooding
is expected at Woodbury Thursday night and Rochester Friday night. Munfordville and Alvaton will approach flood stage, but are not forecast to hit flood stage at this time.

Kentucky River

Minor flooding is in the forecast. Likely to begin at Lockport by this weekend, while Peak Mills on Elkhorn Creek may reach moderate flood.

The East Fork White River at Seymour 

Minor flooding is in the forecast and will rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise to near 16.8 feet by Saturday early afternoon.  At 17.0 feet Flooding becomes more extensive. Although this level is fairly frequent many local and state roads flood. Seymour gravel pit begins to flood. Livestock and equipment must be relocated to higher ground. High water surrounds river residences near Rockford. CR 760 E south of river gaging station is impassable.

The East Fork White River at Rivervale

Minor flooding is in the forecast. Will rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 26.2 feet by Tuesday early afternoon.  At 25.0 feet all county roads across or located in the East Fork of White River flood plain flood. Flooding of agricultural land becomes extensive. The county road on northside of gage floods and gage may be inaccessible except by boat. Local residents in nearby river cabins must park on higher grounds. 

The Muscatatuck River 

Flood stage is 18.0 feet and the river is forecast to have a maximum value of 20.8 feet Sunday early afternoon.  At that point, high water is noticed along the river. Flood waters in a few backyards. A few roads are flooded.

KEEP IN MIND: 

Remember there is a Flood Watch is in effect for most of our area through Sunday morning. Everyone should remain alert this week for flooding. Again, motorists should never drive into flood water. Turn around and go another way. Keep children away from flooded areas. Recreational and agricultural interests should remain alert to changing river conditions. Stay tuned for the latest information. There are several warnings in effect with various start and end times. We could see more issues this week. We will be changing and updating the forecast all week and posting updates on social media. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Rain Continues Tonight and Thursday

After rain off and on all day Wednesday, there's more coming Thursday.  In this post we will break down timing and amounts of tonight's rain and storms plus look ahead to Thursday. Below is a look at rainfall totals from today.

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TIMING

Tonight's line is what we call "convective," so it is likely to drop heavier rain.  Convective means it will have more energy and be characterized by upward movement which also brings the chance for thunderstorms in tonight's line. 

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As we move forward, you can clearly see the chances for heavier rain and thunderstorms with all the yellows, oranges, and even a few areas of red showing up indicating higher intensity. 

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The best chance for the heavy rain/thunderstorms is overnight. By the commute tomorrow morning, that more intense rain has moved east.  We will be left with scattered rain showers that break up through the afternoon. 

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While the Thursday PM hours will be more quiet than Wednesday, there will still be isolated rain showers.  Don't let this "lull" trick you into leaving your umbrella at home.  Rain chances ramp up again Friday. 

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Friday will bring the return of heavier and more widespread rain.  More thunderstorms are expected Friday with a chance for severe storms developing Saturday. We will post updates here in the coming days as that chance develops. 

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AMOUNTS

With the more widespread rain during the day Wednesday, the European model is verifying the best.  That means its forecast rain totals are matching up best with what's actually happening.  That's the model I've chosen to use for long-range rain forecasts below because the GFS is under-performing (showing less rain than what has actually fallen). However, the NAM should perform the best with tonight's convective rain since it can better resolve smaller-scale events. 

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NAM shows 1+" of rain tonight.  Remember the map above is showing you tonight's rain plus what already fell today.  As mentioned earlier, we are expecting locally heavy rainfall tonight where those cells track.  That means all of you have the chance to see downpours. As rain continues through Sunday, rain totals start to rise significantly. 

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Full disclosure: the other long-range model (the GFS) is showing slightly less rain through the long term (see below).  However as mentioned earlier, it is currently under-performing in rain totals. Four to five inches of rain is still possible, especially in our northern and western counties. 

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For an in-depth look at local river levels (including the Ohio), with forecasts, expected crests, etc. click here to see Katie's blog post. She also included all the active flood alerts across the area.  You can check to see if the river near you is under a warning or if you are included in the watch. 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

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Updated Heavy Rain Threat

From Jude Redfield...

    Flood warnings will continue along the Ohio River for quite some time. An expected crest just below 29 feet is likely Friday night/Saturday morning. Elsewhere a flood watch is in effect for the next few days as heavy rain takes aim.

Snow Reports

    Thankfully the rain comes in waves and not all at once. This will keep some of the flood risk held in check (not including the Ohio River)

Stormview

    Heavy rain becomes widespread tonight with up to an inch likely for many at this time.

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Shoes (2)

    Scattered showers are likely tomorrow morning with a possible decrease in coverage Thursday afternoon. Don't get used to any time it stops raining as things will remain active through sunrise Sunday.

Rainamounts

    On and off rain is likely through overnight Saturday.

Temps

    At this point the Ohio River is considered to crest just below moderate flood levels Friday night. A secondary crest COULD POSSIBLY lead to moderate flooding later next week. This hinges on how much rain occurs through the weekend. Stay tuned... -Jude-

02/20/2018

Timing Out the Incoming Rain

Wednesday starts the onslaught of rain that will worsen flooding problems across Kentuckiana.  A strong cold front will come through Wednesday packing rain and storms with it, but additional shots of Gulf moisture bring more rain toward the weekend. 

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The Weather Prediction Center, a NOAA group, puts together outlooks for excessive rainfall.  Below on the left is the outlook for Wednesday where they have included Louisville in a Slight Risk.  On the right below is Thursday's outlook which includes Kentuckiana in a Marginal Risk. 

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Rain will start first in our northwestern counties, seen below in Lawrence and Dubois counties around 2 AM.  The front is moving northwest to southeast across Kentuckiana.

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Forecast models show the rain arriving in Louisville between 5 and 7 AM, so it is likely rain will impact your morning commute Wednesday.  We could also see some thunderstorms in this as the front pushes through. The oranges and reds show that thunderstorm potential.

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Rain covers Kentuckiana, reaching our southeastern counties by late morning. There will be moments of heavier rain in this line.  You can see from the oranges and yellows below that heavier rain will be intermixed with the lighter rain we see all day. We still expect rain by the evening commute, too. 

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Heavier/more organized rain continues into the early morning hours on Thursday.  Later in the day the rain breaks up a little and becomes more scattered.  We will still see rain accumulation Thursday. 

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 AdvanceTrak shows by the time the rain tapers off Thursday afternoon more than one inch of rain is likely across all our WDRB counties.  That doesn't sound like much, but it's only the first wave.  Plus that's falling on already flooded rivers/streams/creeks. 

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The WPC shows the heaviest rain in the next 7 days will happen southwest of here.  We will still see very high rain totals, but the heaviest in this pattern doesn't appear to happen here. 

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Below are the two long-range models showing rain totals through late Sunday.  There is a lot of variety between the models, but notice the pattern.  Several inches of rain are likely by the end of the weekend. After Sunday the pattern breaks up and we start to dry out.  It's important to know river levels won't fall immediately once the rain stops.

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We will provide updates for you on flood alerts, flooded roads and traffic problems, and rain totals both here in the weather blog and on TV.  Watch WDRB and WDRB.com for the latest.

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

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FLOOD WATCH: Locations Included & Rain Totals...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

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The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Indiana and Kentucky, including
the following areas, in Indiana, Clark, Crawford, Dubois,
Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott, and
Washington. In Kentucky, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon,
Boyle, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Clark, Edmonson,
Fayette, Franklin, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison,
Hart, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Larue, Logan, Marion,
Meade, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Ohio, Oldham, Scott, Shelby,
Simpson, Spencer, Taylor, Trimble, Warren, Washington, and
Woodford.

* From Wednesday morning through Sunday morning

* Several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected across
the watch area from Wednesday through early Thursday. Additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
through late Saturday night. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is
expected through Sunday morning which result in excessive runoff
and flooding.

* This rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to
excessive runoff which will cause already swollen rivers to rise
more. Significant and continued rises on the Ohio, the Salt, the
Kentucky River, and the Green River are expected throughout the
week and into the weekend. In southern Indiana, the Blue River
and Muscatatuck River will see significant rises later this
week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather