07/19/2016

The Moon Goes Buck Wild Tonight!

Take a minute tonight, step outside and gaze up at the full moon. Even though the Buck Moon will be slightly below the horizon at the precise moment at which it's full (6:57 p.m. ET), it's still going to get your attention...

1020556main_july_full_moon

Image Courtesy: Wiki

According to many Native American traditions, July is normally the month when the new antlers of buck deer emerge from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur — hence one of the names for the full moon. The full moon in July also is called the Thunder Moon because of the frequency of thunderstorms during this hot, dry month.

Yet another name for the seventh full moon of the calendar year is the Hay Moon — likely no surprise to anyone living on a farm, who may have spent recent weeks cutting, baling and storing hay for the coming winter. And for those of us who suffer from summer allergies, the Hay Moon may be the most familiar moon of all.

July_Full_Moon

Image Courtesy: Wiki

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

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Weather Blog...Up And Over 100 Degrees

From Jude Redfield...

 

    Air temps are expected to hit the upper 90s by Friday, Saturday and Sunday. As we combine this with dewpoints between 67-70 get ready for heat indices near 105 during this time. Since we do have quite a bit of low level moisture it will be difficult to hit 100. Dry air is needed to maximize the surface air temps and when the dewpoints are lower is when we have a much better chance at hitting the century mark. The last time our air temp hit 100 was July 25, 2012.

RadarHelp

RadarHelp1

 

07/18/2016

Landslide Levels Homes In China...

Insane rain flooded parts of central China's Hunan province on Sunday, July 17, 2016. After picking up nearly 8 inches of rain in Morong Town, all sorts of chaos followed. The most shocking scene was caught on camera as a ferocious landslide crashed down on a row of wooden homes. After watching the video below, it's a miracle that no casualties have been reported...

 

Video Courtesy: RT

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

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Very Heavy Rainfall Possible!

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion on the possibility of heavy rainfall for parts of our area...

Mcd0475WPC Met Watch
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0475 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 132 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 181730Z - 182200Z


SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE (ALBEIT RELATIVELY MODEST) INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.


DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS A COUPLE AREAS PUT DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE INTERSECTING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL. A HIGHLY MOIST (PWATS OF JUST SHY OF 2.0 INCHES) AND UNSTABLE (MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG) AIR MASS IS IN PLACE IN THE INFLOW REGION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. THIS AIR IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION BY RELATIVELY MODEST 10-20 KT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION THAT HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IS MOVING EAST TOWARD AN AREA OF REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESS INSTABILITY, THE INFLOW APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE LESS UNSTABLE AIR.


HI-RES CAMS DO NOT SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. THE HRRR-PARALLEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION BASED ON ITS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY, AND THIS MODEL MOVES THE CONVECTION EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO INTERSECT EACH OTHER, AND THE HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. TRENDS IN CURRENT RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES AS WELL AS LIMITED HI-RES MODEL DATA SHOWING THE CONVECTION INDICATE THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

Marc, Rick and I will be watching the trends and we'll have a full update on the flood/severe risk

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Afternoon & Evening Storm Outlook

From Jude Redfield...

Rain amounts have exceeded an inch for some areas in southern Indiana this morning. Afternoon and evening storms could deposit another 1"-2" in select locations. If they link up in spots that had round one then a few flash flood warnings are possible.

RadarHelp1

While a couple severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening I don't see any evidence supporting widespread severe weather. The primary threats with any potential severe storm comes in the form of damaging straight-line wind.

Snow Reports

What to expect this later today and tonight...

    New storms develop with daytime heating combined with an impulse working in from the northwest. Locally heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds will accompany these storms. Ample dry time should be seen between the various rounds of rain and storms. This should at least allow for some time outside to enjoy the summer warmth on this Monday. -Jude Redfield-

07/17/2016

A Bonafide Heat Wave may be Looming... When Temps Could Near 100!

While we have seen our share of heat so far this summer, because of frequent thunderstorm activity, our temps haven't gotten "out of control" yet.  In fact the warmest temperature so far has been 95  set on June 12th.  

Unfortunately, that could change over the next week with recent computer model data indicating that we could be MUCH warmer than that by the end of the week!  Both of today's runs of the Euro and GFS weather models are now advertising what appears to be a bona-fide heat wave and could bring the warmest conditions we've seen in a few years. 

Heat Wave Looming

Gfs_uv250_conus_26

The current run of the GFS, shown above, is forecasting a massive high pressure ridge aloft to drift over the East-Central US by the end of the week and into next weekend bringing an extended period of dry conditions and increasingly hot temps.  

So how hot are we talking about?

Here's a look at 850 temp anomalies for next weekend running approximately 6 to 8°C degrees above normal... which translates to approximately 10 to 15°F higher than average.  

Gfs_t850a_conus_26

OK, so spell it out.  How high could those temps get this week???

Here's a look at the "raw" numbers advertised by the GFS...

At1

At2

At3

At4

At5

These are not heat indices but actual forecasted air temperatures.  Yikes! 

So what do I think? 

I think we are looking at the hottest conditions we've seen perhaps in a few years.  While I'm not biting on triple digit heat just yet, there is good support among the main weather models and we are getting into what would be considered a "climatologically" favored time of the year for this type of dry and hot stretch.  I think upper 90's are a good bet by Friday and into the weekend.  Heat indices will likely go WELL OVER 100!

Jude will be in with his assessment on this rather "hot" topic first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Hot, Humid and Stormy

Yesterday was a great day weather wise and today will be too! EXCEPT, we are cranking the heat AND the humidity. Today will likely be the 15th time Louisville will hit at least 90 degrees, with a high of 93 degrees. It will feel slightly warmer though, thanks to the dew point. The feels like or heat index, which takes into account the dew point/humidity, will be about 95 degrees.

It's a good thing Forecastle has those hydration stations! If you are going to be outside for a long period of time today, drinking water and staying hydrated is a MUST! There will also be a mix of sun and clouds. More clouds will be around by the afternoon.  

7-16 forecastly

We started this morning off with a dew point of 65 degrees. By 10 am, the dew point is at 68 degrees. It is going to continue to climb back to the low and mid 70s over the next day. That one day special of lower humidity was nice but brief!  You can get an idea of what the dew points will be by looking to our south. We will have a southerly wind and that will advect more moist air toward our region. 

7-16 dew points

Because yesterday was so nice, I thought about getting my car washed. But then I thought better of it, knowing we will see some showers and storms again . . . and soon! 

7-16 car wash

This is our current set up. High pressure is in control for now, but it is getting the boot from a warm front, low and cold front out to the west. All will impact us in the coming days, bringing potentially several rounds of storms on Monday and Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe. 

7-16 surf

The Storm Prediction Center has our region under the "marginal risk" for severe weather on Monday. That is the lowest level of threat. However, notice the "slight risk", which is the yellow portion, is just to our NE.

We will have plenty of instability thanks to heat, and the aforementioned high dew points, in the low 70s. There is not great shear or wind energy aloft, only around 20 kts. But with CAPE around 3000 J/kg, widely scattered severe storms are certainly a possibility.  

7-17 marg

The first potential round of showers and storms could happen late tonight through early tomorrow morning. These storms will be weakening as they approach our region, but could still contain some gusty winds. Notice I am using words like "potential" and "could". . . that is because I not convinced they will actually reach our area. Both the NAM and GFS keep us dry until the afternoon on Monday. While Advancetrack's (RPM) last few runs have been convinced of the early ETA. 

7-16 adv tonight

7-16 adv mon am

Compare that to the GFS at 12z (8 am edt) -  the line of showers and storms is still north of the area.

Gfs

The NAM 12z shows it falling apart before arriving. Both models indicate the show will be in the afternoon. 

Nam

It's a complicated forecast and there is still clearly some uncertainty about the timing and also the severity level on Monday. If we see severe storms tomorrow, the better chance will be during the afternoon. The likelihood of severe weather is dependent on what happens during the morning. If we see decreasing clouds during the mid-morning, this will enhance destabilization and increase our potential for stronger storms. If we do see severe weather it would likely be gusty winds and frequent lightning.

We will continue to watch the data and keep you informed as we know more. Because this is an evolving forecast, be SURE to tune into WDRB tonight and catch Jeremy's forecast before you head to bed. And wake up with Jude from 5-9 am on WDRB in the Morning. 

We will all be keeping you informed on social media as well. You can find me with the links below! 

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 -Meteorologist Katie McGraw

 

 

07/16/2016

The Return of High Heat, Humidity and Thunderstorms!

While our weather remains quiet here this evening, things are really heating up to our west and storms are rolling across ports of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

Satrad

 As a warm front lifts through tomorrow, you will notice a marked increase in both heat and humidity with temps back into the 90's and a heat index that could crack 100 degrees! 

Temps

Tomorrow will make for a good pool day for sure.  Remember to stay hydrated!

What about the potential for storms???  

Here's a look at this evening's run of AdvanceTrak showing a very active looking Monday...

At1

At2

At3

At4

At5

At6

What do I think?  

While I don't think you can rule out the possibility of storms arriving early on Monday, most of the data suggests otherwise.  A more likely scenario starts us off very warm and muggy with the storm threat holding off until afternoon or evening.  

Could the storms be severe? 

Right now the Storm Prediction Center has our northern counties in a "marginal" risk for severe weather on Monday.  I think if we get good enough heating, then anyone in the viewing area could see a strong storm with low end severe winds possible in some areas.  

Katie will have a full update first thing in the morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Timelape of Thunderstorm in NYC

Severe thunderstorms rolled through New York City on Thursday that included a shelf cloud ahead of the front. New Yorkers responded in unison by taking out their phones, snapping pictures, or even capturing gorgeous timelapses like the one below! Check it out!

Video Courtesy: Rumble Viral and 'Seangao'

So should we be expecting storms anytime soon? Find out tonight on WDRB with Jeremy's forecast! I'll see you Sunday morning from 6-9 am on WDRB in the Morning! 

Find me on social media with the links below:

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

 -Meteorologist Katie McGraw

07/15/2016

Caterpillars Take Bite Out Of Rhode Island Forests...

A single caterpillar or bug may seem small and inconsequential, but the collective environmental impact of certain insects can be profound. In fact, insects and other diseases damage 45 times more forest area each year than wildfires, according to one estimate.

One of the key pests in the northeastern United States—the European gypsy moth caterpillar (Lymantria disbar)—has had its population boom in 2016. These voracious insects chewed through large swaths of hardwood forest in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in May and June.

The outbreak of the fuzzy brown caterpillars was so severe that defoliation was apparent in satellite imagery collected by NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites. The natural-color images above were acquired by Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on May 25, 2016 (left), and June 26, 2016 (right). Healthy forests appear green, while defoliated areas have a gray-brown tint.

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Image Courtesy: NASA

Defoliation by gypsy moth caterpillars tends to be most visible to satellites in early summer, after the caterpillars have hatched and had an opportunity to feed but before trees have had time to regrow leaves. The aerial photograph below shows a closer view of forests near Barden and Scituate Reservoirs in western Rhode Island on June 30, 2016. The greener areas are coniferous trees, which the caterpillars avoid. Brown areas are defoliated deciduous trees, which make up New England’s hardwood forests.

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Image Courtesy: NASA

While gypsy moths have been a constant presence in the northeastern United States since being introduced from Europe in the 1860s, their populations swell dramatically in certain years due to several environmental factors. For instance, a decline in the population of white-footed mice—a key predator of gypsy moth caterpillars—can set a forest up for a gypsy moth population boom. Mouse populations usually shrink following years with poor acorn production by oak trees.

Dry weather also can weaken certain pathogens that normally keep the caterpillars in check. “This 2016 outbreak is likely due to two successive dry springs—conditions not conducive to the growth and spread of two naturally occurring bio-controls,” explained Paul Ricard, the forest health program coordinator for the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management. “The Entomophaga maimaiga fungus and Nuclepolyhedrosis virus have historically kept the gypsy moth population in check.” Indeed, much of the Northeast was in moderate or severe drought in July 2016, according the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The ecological consequences of gypsy moth outbreaks are often cosmetic, but they can become serious. Deciduous trees can normally withstand one or two years of defoliation by caterpillars, but three or more successive years of severe defoliation can result in widespread tree mortality. “Though weak or sick trees could succumb, we are not worried about significant tree mortality yet,” said Ricard.

Meanwhile, predators of the caterpillars—such as cuckoos, blue jays, and orioles—often thrive when populations of gypsy moth caterpillars swell.

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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