Yesterday was a great day weather wise and today will be too! EXCEPT, we are cranking the heat AND the humidity. Today will likely be the 15th time Louisville will hit at least 90 degrees, with a high of 93 degrees. It will feel slightly warmer though, thanks to the dew point. The feels like or heat index, which takes into account the dew point/humidity, will be about 95 degrees.
It's a good thing Forecastle has those hydration stations! If you are going to be outside for a long period of time today, drinking water and staying hydrated is a MUST! There will also be a mix of sun and clouds. More clouds will be around by the afternoon.
We started this morning off with a dew point of 65 degrees. By 10 am, the dew point is at 68 degrees. It is going to continue to climb back to the low and mid 70s over the next day. That one day special of lower humidity was nice but brief! You can get an idea of what the dew points will be by looking to our south. We will have a southerly wind and that will advect more moist air toward our region.
Because yesterday was so nice, I thought about getting my car washed. But then I thought better of it, knowing we will see some showers and storms again . . . and soon!
This is our current set up. High pressure is in control for now, but it is getting the boot from a warm front, low and cold front out to the west. All will impact us in the coming days, bringing potentially several rounds of storms on Monday and Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has our region under the "marginal risk" for severe weather on Monday. That is the lowest level of threat. However, notice the "slight risk", which is the yellow portion, is just to our NE.
We will have plenty of instability thanks to heat, and the aforementioned high dew points, in the low 70s. There is not great shear or wind energy aloft, only around 20 kts. But with CAPE around 3000 J/kg, widely scattered severe storms are certainly a possibility.
The first potential round of showers and storms could happen late tonight through early tomorrow morning. These storms will be weakening as they approach our region, but could still contain some gusty winds. Notice I am using words like "potential" and "could". . . that is because I not convinced they will actually reach our area. Both the NAM and GFS keep us dry until the afternoon on Monday. While Advancetrack's (RPM) last few runs have been convinced of the early ETA.
Compare that to the GFS at 12z (8 am edt) - the line of showers and storms is still north of the area.
The NAM 12z shows it falling apart before arriving. Both models indicate the show will be in the afternoon.
It's a complicated forecast and there is still clearly some uncertainty about the timing and also the severity level on Monday. If we see severe storms tomorrow, the better chance will be during the afternoon. The likelihood of severe weather is dependent on what happens during the morning. If we see decreasing clouds during the mid-morning, this will enhance destabilization and increase our potential for stronger storms. If we do see severe weather it would likely be gusty winds and frequent lightning.
We will continue to watch the data and keep you informed as we know more. Because this is an evolving forecast, be SURE to tune into WDRB tonight and catch Jeremy's forecast before you head to bed. And wake up with Jude from 5-9 am on WDRB in the Morning.
We will all be keeping you informed on social media as well. You can find me with the links below!
Katie McGraw's Facebook Page
-Meteorologist Katie McGraw