06/22/2017

Summary of NWS Conference Call

The National Weather Service in Louisville has concluded a conference call with local emergency managers and media concerning the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather for the next two days. 

Below are a couple graphics summarizing the discussion. 

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We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH Issued

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for nearly all of our viewing area, including Louisville from tomorrow morning until Saturday morning. The combination of Tropical Storm Cindy's remnants and an incoming cold front will lead to the possibility of locally heavy  rain and flooding.

There are two different time frames for sections of our viewing area. For Southern IN, Jackson, Jennings, Lawrence, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott, Washington Counties, the watch is in effect from Friday morning at 2 am until Saturday at 2 am. 

Every county in our viewing area in KY, the watch starts a bit later. It is in effect from 8 am Friday morning until 11 am Saturday morning. 

See an image of the counties included below as well as detailed information from the NWS. 

Image 1

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for southern Indiana.

* From late tonight through Friday night

* A cold front coming in from the northwest will join forces with
the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to produce widespread rain,
possibly heavy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

We will be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Heavy Rain Is Getting Close

From Jude Redfield...

    Rain develops today. Most areas will be wet at some point this afternoon and evening. Average rain amounts with this first shot of rain look to range between a .25" and .50". This proves to drop beneficial rain in the area.  Waves of rain and storms hit at times on Friday. Locally heavy rain will occur at times. A few spotty storms could POSSIBLY reach severe limits.

Rainamounts

    Today's future radar images are shown below

TempPlunge

Temps

    The remnants of Cindy join forces with an approaching cold front to enhance the rain rates tomorrow.

WKUGraphic

    A narrow band of heavy rain develops in southern Indiana during the morning and early afternoon tomorrow. This forms in advance of the cold front. As Cindy influences the cold front later in the afternoon heavy rain forms in Kentucky.

WKUlunge2

    Widespread rain amounts through tomorrow night tally up between .50" - 2" for most locations. Locally higher amounts will occur. The best chance for amounts in excess of 2" hit Kentucky. Some flash flooding is possible. 

    The map below indicates where a few severe storms are possible tomorrow. I've highlighted an area in red where the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk issued.  If enough daytime instability can form then a few severe storms could occur in the region. At this point it is nothing more than a situation to monitor.

Colin jost

    The weekend looks great! The cold front moves south Friday night allowing drier air in along with pleasant temps near 80 each afternoon this weekend. -Jude Redfield-

 

06/21/2017

Waves of Heavy Rain: Timing and Totals

The NWS in Louisville has only issued a Hydrologic Outlook, but a Flash Flood Watch may issued in the hours to come as tropical, moist air from the Gulf makes its way into our neck of the woods by tomorrow, thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy and coupled with a surface feature from our west. This will bring rounds of rain to our area over the next few days. 

Image 1
Almost every computer model shows the same track for Cindy. It will become a depression by Thursday and slowly makes it way toward our area bringing waves of rain. The weakening depression will pass across Central KY on Friday. 

Image 2

TIMING:

We will start off Thursday dry, with increasing clouds. 

At 1

WAVE 1 

Rain chances will increase from south to north on Thursday afternoon and evening. The stronger storms Thursday easily could bring about an inch of rainfall.

At 2

Rain will become widespread with time and at times will be heavy. 

At 3

But eventually, start to become more scattered. And we could see periods of dry weather too through Thursday evening and overnight... 

At 4

WAVE 2 

But then a second wave of heavy rain will develop into Friday, with the focus at this time expected somewhere along and north of the Ohio River. 

At 6

At 7

WAVE 3

The third wave of rainfall will come close to the low pressure remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy as they travel across southern Kentucky Friday night. 

At 8

At 9

At 10

RAINFALL TOTALS: 

Overall rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday look to range from 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts. This much rain can lead to the filling of area creeks and may cause a few rivers to rise to near flood levels. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized street flooding.

Image 3

Image 4 

We be continuing to monitor these systems as they approach the area. Be sure to join Rick this evening on WDRB News and Jude bright and early from 5-9 am. Let's connect on social media, the links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Heavy Rain Potential & Big Weekend Forecast Adjustment

From Jude Redfield...

    Tropical moisture is on the move north. Scattered showers and storms break out with thick clouds rolling in tomorrow. It does not look like an all day rain tomorrow, but locally heavy rain will occur from the afternoon through the night. The rain/storm chance tomorrow is 50%. The rain chance on Friday heads to 90%.  This is a 90% chance that at some point it will rain in Kentuckiana. Locally heavy rain will happen as these waves move through.

    This graphic below shows all computer models agreeing on a close enough path to deliver rain to much of our region.

Colin jost

TempPlunge

WKUGraphic

WKUlunge2

    When all is said and done by Saturday morning I expect rain amounts to tally up between 1" - 2"( especially in Kentucky). Locally higher amounts are likely!!!  The track of the tropical system should stay to our south keeping the highest rain totals in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Temps

    Get a load of the weekend forecast that has now changed quite a bit. The cold front moves through Friday night sweeping the rain to our south on Saturday. Saturday looks to be dry, dry, dry. I'm hoping this trend continues because it will make most of us very happy! -Jude Redfield-

06/19/2017

NASA FINDS OVER 200 NEW PLANETS...

NASA’s Kepler space telescope team has released a mission catalog of planet candidates that introduces 219 new planet candidates, 10 of which are near-Earth size and orbiting in their star's habitable zone, which is the range of distance from a star where liquid water could pool on the surface of a rocky planet.

This is the most comprehensive and detailed catalog release of candidate exoplanets, which are planets outside our solar system, from Kepler’s first four years of data. It’s also the final catalog from the spacecraft’s view of the patch of sky in the Cygnus constellation.

Kepler_1

NASA’s Kepler space telescope team has identified 219 new planet candidates, 10 of which are near-Earth size and in the habitable zone of their star. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

With the release of this catalog, derived from data publicly available on the NASA Exoplanet Archive, there are now 4,034 planet candidates identified by Kepler. Of which, 2,335 have been verified as exoplanets. Of roughly 50 near-Earth size habitable zone candidates detected by Kepler, more than 30 have been verified.

Additionally, results using Kepler data suggest two distinct size groupings of small planets. Both results have significant implications for the search for life. The final Kepler catalog will serve as the foundation for more study to determine the prevalence and demographics of planets in the galaxy, while the discovery of the two distinct planetary populations shows that about half the planets we know of in the galaxy either have no surface, or lie beneath a deep, crushing atmosphere – an environment unlikely to host life.

The findings were presented at a news conference Monday at NASA's Ames Research Center in California's Silicon Valley.

“The Kepler data set is unique, as it is the only one containing a population of these near Earth-analogs – planets with roughly the same size and orbit as Earth,” said Mario Perez, Kepler program scientist in the Astrophysics Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. “Understanding their frequency in the galaxy will help inform the design of future NASA missions to directly image another Earth.”

The Kepler space telescope hunts for planets by detecting the minuscule drop in a star’s brightness that occurs when a planet crosses in front of it, called a transit.

This is the eighth release of the Kepler candidate catalog, gathered by reprocessing the entire set of data from Kepler’s observations during the first four years of its primary mission. This data will enable scientists to determine what planetary populations – from rocky bodies the size of Earth, to gas giants the size of Jupiter – make up the galaxy’s planetary demographics.

To ensure a lot of planets weren't missed, the team introduced their own simulated planet transit signals into the data set and determined how many were correctly identified as planets. Then, they added data that appear to come from a planet, but were actually false signals, and checked how often the analysis mistook these for planet candidates. This work told them which types of planets were overcounted and which were undercounted by the Kepler team’s data processing methods.

“This carefully-measured catalog is the foundation for directly answering one of astronomy’s most compelling questions – how many planets like our Earth are in the galaxy?” said Susan Thompson, Kepler research scientist for the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California, and lead author of the catalog study.

One research group took advantage of the Kepler data to make precise measurements of thousands of planets, revealing two distinct groups of small planets. The team found a clean division in the sizes of rocky, Earth-size planets and gaseous planets smaller than Neptune. Few planets were found between those groupings.

Using the W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii, the group measured the sizes of 1,300 stars in the Kepler field of view to determine the radii of 2,000 Kepler planets with exquisite precision.

“We like to think of this study as classifying planets in the same way that biologists identify new species of animals,” said Benjamin Fulton, doctoral candidate at the University of Hawaii in Manoa, and lead author of the second study. “Finding two distinct groups of exoplanets is like discovering mammals and lizards make up distinct branches of a family tree.”

Press-web5_studying_the_stars

NASA's Kepler space telescope was the first agency mission capable of detecting Earth-size planets using the transit method, a photometric technique that measures the minuscule dimming of starlight as a planet passes in front of its host star. For the first four years of its primary mission, the space telescope observed a set starfield located in the constellation Cygnus (left). New results released from Kepler data June 19, 2017, have implications for understanding the frequency of different types of planets in our galaxy and the way planets are formed. Since 2014, Kepler has been collecting data on its second mission, observing fields on the plane of the ecliptic of our galaxy (right). Credits: NASA/Wendy Stenzel

It seems that nature commonly makes rocky planets up to about 75 percent bigger than Earth. For reasons scientists don't yet understand, about half of those planets take on a small amount of hydrogen and helium that dramatically swells their size, allowing them to "jump the gap" and join the population closer to Neptune’s size.

The Kepler spacecraft continues to make observations in new patches of sky in its extended mission, searching for planets and studying a variety of interesting astronomical objects, from distant star clusters to objects such as the TRAPPIST-1 system of seven Earth-size planets, closer to home.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

06/18/2017

The Tropics are Heating Up! First Two Storms of the Season Brewing...

NOAA is forecasting an above average hurricane season with 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes.  

FINAL 0523 Hurricane Graphic_pie chart-700x400

While it has been a relatively quiet start to the early part of the season (Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30th), things are beginning to heat up with TWO tropical disturbances of interest that will likely become named storms over the next couple of days. 

NHC gfx

The first one, Invest 93L, according to the National Hurricane Center, NHC, is located just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has an 80% chance to become a named storm.  

GULFIR

The system is expected to cross over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and is expected to impact the Northern Gulf by late Tuesday - Wednesday potentially as a tropical storm bringing a good bet for some very heavy rain for parts of the South later this week.

Panel_c_17

The second one, refered to as TWO02L, is much further out, but is approaching tropical storm strength as we speak.  

024545

This storm will likely be named either later tonight or tomorrow, however, it is forecasted to track along the Northern Coast of South America and gradually weaken as it inters the Eastern Caribbean by midweek.  

The first two storms of the 2017 season will be named Arlene and Bret.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Update to Severe Weather Potential for Father's Day: Timing & Threats

Severe Risk:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an  "Slight Risk" for severe weather for all of our area for today from metro, down to the SW and SE. A slight risk is defined by SPC as an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

The potential threats will be damaging gusty winds, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, frequent lightning, and large hail.

Image 1

 Set up and Ingredients:

A cold front is positioned out to our west and this is the main "pusher" of storms for today, but there is also a remnant outflow boundary in our area, that would serve as the redevelopment for showers and storms later today. 

Image 2

There is currently a brief lull in the activity, but more rain is moving into our western counties as we speak. It is only rain at this time. Because the air the is so stable, they have been removed from the severe weather risk. There was a severe thunderstorm watch posted earlier this morning. No storms have been severe. Only briefly strong. 

Image 5

Ingredients:

Heat and moisture (or dew points) both are fuel for storms. The increase of each, will in turn, increase our instability. It has been muggly for days. Once the cold front sweeps through, it will do some "spring cleaning" and lower not only our temperatures but also our dew points and make it feel much more comfortable for the beginning of the week.

We are seeing a few breaks in the clouds in some areas. If there is clearing, the atmosphere could become moderately unstable. Models are showing CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy around 1500-2500 J/Kg. Which is more than enough instability.

Image 4

But will that actually become a reality?

Currently, around the metro Louisville area, there is about 850 J/kg of CAPE and that is the highest number I could find. The range was about 500-850 J/kg. I will be keeping a close eye on these numbers over the next few hours.  

Image 1

There is decent wind energy aloft for a damaging wind threat as well as some hail. Strong to severe storms can be produced on mid level winds of 35 kts and we have just above that, around 35-40 kts. 

Image 3

Timing: 

Models have been in disagreement and they are not consistent from run to run.

For example the HRRR model below.... here is the current radar (left) vs the initialized HRRR (Right). Not bad. But there are some issues I am noticing right off the bat. For one, the HRRR is our drama queen model, always making everything look more intense than it actually is- with those deep reds and oranges . Also, we are not currently seeing any activity right over Louisville. Only to the west. But the HRRR typically will be overdone. Keep that in mind as you scroll through the graphics. 

Image 6       At 10

I really think all of the HRRR graphics are showing a bit too much intensity. Again, it is always a bit overdone.

At 6

Showers and storms would become more scattered in the late afternoon. 

At 7

At 8

The HRRR continues to show showers well into the 8-10 time frame, which I hope is not the case, because it would mean we will have showers and storms morning, noon and night on Father's Day. 

At 9

RPM

Now let's switch gears to the RPM. It is also not initializing correctly. It brings in a nice strong, yet thinner line of showers and storms. The timing should also be taken with a grain of salt on these images. I believe if a scenario were to unfold like this, it would be earlier than the clock says per each image based on what the radar is currently showing. 

At 1

At 2

At 3

RPM clears majority of the showers out early evening.  I hope that is the case! But I am keeping a chance for a few more showers and storms this evening as well. But they will be more scattered in nature. 

At 4

What Do I think? 

Our atmosphere has spots of modestly unstable air that have been untouched and could see strong to severe storms and there are also a few areas seeing breaks in the clouds. Both could allow for SOME strong to severe storms, but I think they will be very isolated in nature. I am not overwhelmed by current instability 500-850 J/kg, but I will monitor through the morning and afternoon. I think more than likely, it will be a rain event. 

I think we will see something in between the two models I have shown you above. I am keeping lower chances through the forecast this evening. Where we could still potentially see a few scattered showers and storms through tonight (I had a 40% chance on my tonight graphic during the news). 

If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below! 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Update to Morning Thunderstorm Watch

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the conditions for our area for severe weather for today. The main threats for any strong to severe storms are going to be gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy rain, flash flooding . Read what SPC has to say about the threat below and be sure to stay weather aware.

Image 1

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 350
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Greatest severe-weather threat (primarily with damaging
   winds) will continue to spread across southwest into south-central
   IN and parts of western and northwestern KY early this morning.  The
   overall severe-weather threat should continue to diminish across far
   southern IL.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in lightning data and fast storm movement
   (east-southeast at 40-45 kt) with storms that have moved into
   southwest IN suggest a continued severe-weather threat across this
   portion of WW 350 through 10-12Z.  If forward motion is maintained
   through 1030-11Z, portions of northwest KY (Breckinridge and Meade
   Counties) to Harrison County IN may need to be added to this watch. 
   The ongoing storms in southwest IN are moving through the axis of
   strongest instability, while most-unstable CAPE weakens with
   eastward extent into central KY.  This observation and potential for
   further boundary layer stabilization early this morning could
   eventually limit the severe-weather threat east of WW 350.

   Meanwhile, the decrease in storm movement and diminishing lightning
   trends across southern IL suggests the overall severe-weather threat
   in this portion of WW 350 should continue to wane.

If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a portion of our viewing area until 10 am EDT. This does not include Louisville. 

Below is an image of the counties included in both watches as well as detailed information from the National Weather Service.

Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 3.47.09 AM

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INFORMATION:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
350 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

CRAWFORD              DUBOIS                ORANGE               
PERRY                 WASHINGTON      

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 350
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
350 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

JACKSON               LAWRENCE              

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BEDFORD, SEYMOUR, AND VINCENNES.

Stay tuned for the latest information. Storms are likely to develop shortly. I will be keeping you informed for the rest of the morning. Be sure to watch the news from 6-9 am on WDRB for the latest information. If and when storms go severe, we will be updating all of our social media pages, and cut into programming if necessary. The links to my social media pages are below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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