11/23/2014

NWS Issues Wind Advisory!

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for all of North-Central Kentucky and most of Southern Indiana.  The Advisory goes into effect at 4 AM ET tonight and remains in effect through 6 PM ET tomorrow

Advisory

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT
  PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
  WILL BE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT
  THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM DAWN MONDAY MORNING
  THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN. ISOLATED
  POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING WILL BE
  DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE.

Let's time out the wind with the latest GFS model data...

The GFS is projecting winds to steadily increase for the remainder of the day with gusts peaking to between 30 and  40 mph by mid evening.

Wind01

 Winds continue to howl overnight with gusts expecting to exceed 40 mph by morning.

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High winds continue in the 40 to 45 mph range through the morning hours.  

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A few gusts could approach 50 before they slowly diminish by late in the day on Monday.

Be careful if you plan to be on the road later tonight or tomorrow especially if you drive a high profile vehicle.  

I'll have a full update on how much rain to expect and how high those winds could go later this evening on WDRB News at 10.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Video Of The Day: Surfing Lake Erie During Snowstorm!

During the massive snowstorm in western New York, two surfers hit the waves on Lake Erie. It was 26 degrees with winds whipping up to 35 miles an hour when Christian Edie and her fiance Kevin Cullen, decided to put on dry suits and attempt this daring stunt. Keep in mind the water temperature of Lake Erie was still a balmy 45 degrees. The differecne between the cold winds blowing over the relatively warm lake water is what causes the enhanced snow this time of the year. While filming, they had to stop rolling several times to clear the ice off the camera. Watch this crazy couple surf the swells of Lake Erie in near whiteout conditions...

 

Video Courtesy: Shazzy Mazzy7

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

11/22/2014

Big Storm Arrives Sunday with Heavy Rain and Strong Winds!

Following a dry and very pleasant Saturday that featured some mild temperatures in the 60's, BIG changes can be expected as we head into your Sunday.  

Currently, we are tracking a pair of low pressure systems.  

Satrad

The first across Southern Texas bringing very heavy rain and some strong storms to portions of the Gulf Coast.   

The Second low is located over Colorado bringing showers to portions of the Plains and snows to the higher elevations in the Rockies.  

Rad3

These two storms are expected to merge while rapidly strengthening during the day tomorrow bringing some BIG CHANGES to our weather in the process.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT shows an overcast sky out the door tomorrow with only a few isolated showers.

Advancetrak

Showers become scattered by lunch with moisture rapidly increasing to the south.

Advancetrak2

Rain becomes widespread by early afternoon and locally heavy. 

Advancetrak3

Moderate to heavy rain continues with rumbles of thunder possible through the afternoon.

Advancetrak4

Scattered showers and a few storms are expected to remain through the evening.

Advancetrak5

We'll see the chance of rain continuing overnight Sunday night and into early on Monday.  

So how much rain could we see? 

I think we are looking at widespread 0.75" to 1.5" rainfall amounts across our area.  Not enough to cause any major issues, but a good soaking.  Watch for ponding on the roadways!  

Will there be a severe threat?  

In my opinion, not really.  Although there will be  A TON of energy associated with this system, there simply wont be enough instability in our area to create much if any thunderstorm problems here locally.  However, a few isolated strong storms may be possible into far Southwestern portions of Kentucky. 

What else could be of concern?

The wind could become an issue as we head into Sunday night and into the day on Monday. 

Wind region

The latest run of the GFS is really packing a punch with 40 to near 50 mph wind gusts in our area Monday morning.  These winds are in association with the strong low pressure system that develops tomorrow and a powerful cold front that sweeps through first thing on Monday.  

Moral of the story... Keep the rain gear handy tomorrow and be prepared for those winds to howl heading into the workweek! 

Rick will be in with a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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What's The Coldest Day Of The Year?

As winter approaches, much of the United States is beginning to brace for the cold, while some areas have already experienced their coldest day of the year. To give you a better idea of the coldest time of year for your area, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center has created a new “Coldest Day of the Year” map.

This map is derived from the 1981-2010 U.S. Climate Normals —"the Normals," for short. The Normals are 30-year averages of climate conditions from weather station data across the country, including the average low temperature for each day. From these values, scientists can identify which day of the year, on average, has the lowest minimum temperature, a.k.a. the “coldest day."

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Image Courtesy: NOAA

According to this map, Kentuckiana typically experiences it's coldest day in the middle of January.

Historically, the western half of the Lower 48 has its coldest day in December, near the beginning of winter. In contrast, most eastern locations have their coldest day in January. In addition, areas that average the most snow cover, such as the Northeast and high-altitude regions in the West, tend to reach their climatological coldest day much later in the winter, likely because snow reflects much more sunlight than bare ground. Other conditions being equal, the more sunlight the ground reflects, the less solar heating the location experiences.

Normals for temperature are important indicators used in forecasting and monitoring by many U.S. economic sectors. Knowing the timing and probability of the year's lowest temperatures can help energy companies prepare for rising heating demand. Temperature Normals are also useful planning tools for the healthcare, construction, and tourism industries. You may even want to check the Normals before planning your next event or vacation.

Blog

Image Courtesy: NOAA

While the map shows the coldest days of the year on average throughout the United States, this year’s actual conditions may vary widely based on weather and climate patterns. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on U.S. Climate Normals data from the National Climatic Data Center. Caption by Susan Osborne.

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

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11/21/2014

Discussing Weekend Rain & Storm Chances...

We finally get a chance to thaw out this weekend! After dealing with near record cold and snow earlier in the week, it's hard to believe that we are now focusing on the threat for strong thunderstorms. If you are on the verge of going stir crazy, and you want to spend time outdoors then Saturday is your chance. Even though we are going to see more clouds than sun, there will hardly be any rain. We have a tiny 20% chance for a spotty shower or sprinkle, but a majority of us end up completely dry. Highs rebound back to where they should be for this time of the year as we make it into the upper 50's and low 60's. Southerly breezes on Saturday get fierce on Sunday. A powerful low pressure explodes as it moves into the Great Lakes region...

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Even without a thunderstorm, winds could whip around near 40 mph. The low-level flow with this system is very potent with winds over 70 mph 5,000 ft. above the surface. A couple storms may tap into some of this energy late Sunday and again early Monday. The severe risk is extremely low, but don't be surprised if we get a couple strong wind gust reports. Aside from being windy, Sunday also looks wet. Rounds of rain and storms will move across the area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with most spots picking up close to an inch...

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Clouds will hang tough early next week as the next blast of cold air arrives. High temperatures hang out in the upper 30's and 40's much of Thanksgiving week. There is even the chance for some light snow. Marc Weinberg will have the very latest tonight on WDRB! Enjoy the weekend!

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather





 

11/20/2014

Video Of The Day: Drone Shows Aerial View Of West Seneca, NY...

West Seneca, New York resident Jim Grimaldi shot stunning 4K video using a drone in the midst of Tuesday’s unbelievable snowstorm. Grimaldi published the footage on Tuesday, giving a unique aerial view of the snow-encased neighborhood. Nearly 100 inches of snow could fall in parts of western New York this week! As milder temperatures push north this weekend, melting snow may cause extreme flooding issues. Check out the drone footage below...

 

Video Courtesy: James Grimaldi

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

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NOAA's Winter Forecast Update...

After a memorably cold winter in the central and eastern United States last year, and some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if this cold weather is a harbinger of things to come. The simple answer is “not necessarily,” as the persistence of weather and climate from one winter to the next or even one month to the next is usually fairly low (Livezey and Barnston 1988; Barnston and Livezey 1989; Van den Dool 1994). While “persistence”—the prediction that recent conditions will continue—is a simple forecast to make, it rarely proves to be as accurate as forecasts made using dynamical models or more advanced statistical methods (1).

So does that mean this won’t be a cold winter in the central and eastern part of the nation? Again the answer is “not necessarily.” According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) mid-November outlook, odds favor below-normal temperatures in certain parts of the country, and many of those areas do turn out to be in the south-central and southeastern United States, as we will discuss shortly.

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Chances of possible temperature outcomes for December 2014-February 2015: above normal, below normal, or near normal. Above or below normal means temperatures in the upper or lower third of the range of historical temperatures. White does not mean "near normal;" it show places where the chances for above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures are equal. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.

Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, even in regions where above-normal temperatures are favored, a colder-than-normal winter is still a possibility. Remember, CPC’s outlooks describe probabilities, which means—as we’ve explained in earlier blog posts—that even when one outcome is more likely than another, there is still always a chance that a less favored outcome will occur.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides strong clues as to what we can expect during winter across much of the United States. Of course, this only applies when El Niño or La Niña are present, and as we approach winter, we find ourselves still waiting and wondering if El Niño is going to begin or not. However, despite the reluctance of El Niño to show itself so far this year, CPC forecasters have considered potential impacts from El Niño and have slightly tilted the outlook (particularly the precipitation outlook) in that direction.

And if El Niño remains a no-show this year, what will this mean for the forecast? Actually, as you might expect, not much, because the forecasters understand the fact that El Niño has a 58% of developing, which also means that there’s a 42% chance that it won’t. To see how information about El Niño gets incorporated into the forecast, let’s take a look at the precipitation outlook. (El Niño often has a more robust influence on precipitation than on temperature.)

The winter precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern tier of the nation extending northward along the East Coast, as well as in southern Alaska, and drier-than-normal conditions in central Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This pattern is quite consistent with the average precipitation patterns seen during previous El Nino winters.

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Chances of possible precipitation outcomes for December 2014-February 2015: above normal, below normal, or near normal. Above or below normal means preciptation in the upper or lower third of the range of historical records. White does not mean "near normal;" it show places where the chances for above-, below-, and near-normal precipitation are equal. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.

However, you’ll note that the largest probabilities on this outlook are all less than 50%. This means that while above-normal precipitation across the South is the most likely out of the 3 possibilities (below normal, near normal, or above normal), it’s more likely that we’ll see precipitation that is “not above-normal.” That is, the combined chance that the outcome will fall in one of the other two categories (near normal or below normal) is higher.

It’s like spinning a climate roulette wheel. While the “above” area is the biggest piece of the pie, the near-normal and even below-normal areas are not insignificant and could occur. These are very modest probabilities for an El Niño winter and reflect the reality that El Niño is not a sure bet for this winter. And even if it does develop, it’s likely to be a weak event, resulting in weak impacts.

For example, in contrast to this year’s ENSO situation, precipitation probabilities in Texas and Florida during the 2009-10 winter outlook exceeded 50% for above-normal rainfall, and they exceeded 70% during the peak of the 1997/98 event. In both cases, the most likely or favored result occurred, as wetter-than-average winters prevailed. This year our confidence level is not so high, but we still think the probability for above normal is higher than it would be purely due to chance, which would be 33.33%.

The temperature outlook favors a warmer-than-normal winter over Alaska, the Western United States, and northern New England, while below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the south-central (2) and southeastern parts of the nation. Probabilities of above-normal temperature exceed 50% along the West Coast, so this region has a significantly reduced chance (just 15%, according to the pie chart) of seeing a colder-than-normal winter.

Also note that both maps include areas where neither above- nor below-normal conditions is favored. Those areas are shown in white, which represents “equal chances,” and it means that the odds for above, near, or below-normal are all the same (33.33%). This doesn’t mean that temperature or precipitation is expected to be normal this winter in those regions (the probability for that is also 33.33%), but rather that there’s no tilt in the odds toward any of the three categories. Thinking back to the roulette wheel, the areas of each region would be the same, so the likelihood of any of the three categories occurring is also the same.

Making seasonal forecasts is a very challenging endeavor. Seasonal climate models are not as skillful as weather models, and phenomenon like El Niño or La Niña only provide some hints as to what might occur during an upcoming season. CPC issues probabilistic seasonal forecasts so users can take risk and opportunities into account when making climate-sensitive decisions.

However, keep in mind that these outlooks will primarily benefit those who play the long game. The maps show only the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but not the only possible outcome. For example, while the outlook favors above-normal temperatures in northern New England, it wouldn’t be shocking for temperatures this winter to be near-normal or even colder-than-normal. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Footnotes

(1) However, persistence nonetheless does tend to show positive skill (i.e., it is better than just randomly guessing, or just forecasting near-normal every time), and month-to-month persistence is more likely within seasons with an El Nino or La Nina event (in locations that are influenced by ENSO).

(2) Note that this means states like Texas, Louisiana, and a few other southeastern states stand a better than average chance of experiencing a repeat of last year’s below-normal temperatures.

Lead reviewer: Anthony Barnston

References

Barnston, A. G., and R. E. Livezey, 1989: An operational multifield analog/antianalog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures: Part II: Spring, summer, fall, and intermediate 3-month period experiments. J. Climate, 2, 513-533.

Livezey, R. E., and A. G. Barnston, 1988: An operational multifield analog/antianalog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures: Part I: System design and winter experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 10953-10974. DOI: 10.1029/JD093iD09p10953.

Van den Dool, H. M., 2007: Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction. Oxford University Press, 215 pp.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Weather Blog: Weekend Brings A Wet Mess

From Jude Redfield...

    This is a quick run down of what to expect starting Friday evening going through Sunday night.  Light rain, possibly beginning as freezing rain/drizzle develops between 8pm - 2am for locations along and north of the river Friday night. This is a situation that proves only a small chance at any ice. Bottom line...sometimes it only takes a few minutes of freezing rain to make roads slick. This will be something to monitor, not something to be nervous about at this time.

    Saturday has skies remaining mostly cloudy, but only a small chance for a few hit or miss showers. If it ends up raining where you are it shouldn't last that long. Temps climb to near 50 late in the day. Sunday is a different story when it comes to rain chances. As it stands, nearly a 100% chance for widespread rain should take aim on Kentuckiana. By late morning on Sunday rain surges into the region. It will be heavy at times with gusty winds as the warm front approaches by evening. The warmest temps probably won't be felt until overnight (most of the afternoon spent in the cool low-mid 50s). The low pressure responsible for the gusty winds and rain intensifies so fast that the wind field will be large and produce gusts possibly over 40mph even without t-storms. These strong south winds will create rising overnight temps and enough instability **COULD POSSIBLY* develop that a broken line of t-storms develops. A few of these storms **COULD** be strong, but the chances remain *LOW* at this stage of the game. This is nothing more than something to watch at this point. Severe weather will be likely well south of Kentuckiana. Rain amounts over 1" look common by early Monday morning. If you have outdoor plans Sunday I would start making a plan B with rain chances being so high. -Jude Redfield-

    

Landmarks To Add

SPC New Look

Missouri

Rainestimates1

11/19/2014

Weather Blog: Buffalo Snow Images WOW!!!

From Jude Redfield...

    The steady stream of lake effect snow over the last 24 hours has finally moved north. More lake effect snow develops tomorrow and Friday so they aren't completely finished, but the worst has come and gone. Snow rates of 3" - 6" per hour were common at the height of the storm. Snow totals are approaching 6 feet for some.

**RADAR IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING**

SPC New Look

Stormview4

Rainestimates1

Arkansas Station Outlook

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11/18/2014

INCREDIBLE Lake Effect Blizzard Strikes NY!

While we've had to deal with some early season snow lately, it has been nothing like what the folks from around the Great Lakes has been dealing with.

Portions of Upstate New York have been getting literally buried beneath feet of snow!

UntitledFire Engine stuck in more than two feet of snow in South Buffalo - November 18, 2014.  Via @irisheaglle

Already with 2 to 3 feet of snow on the ground in South Buffalo, forecasters are calling for MUCH MORE before the snow comes to an end. 

The current Lake Effect snowband coming off of Lake Erie is particularly intense producing snowfall rates in excess of 4 inches per hour!!  

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This is what is looks like on Radar with the relatively narrow, but very intense band coming onshore just south of downtown Buffalo where it has been located since last night.

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The persistence of this snow band along with the very intense snowfall rates are producing some astonishing totals.

Here's a video showing  the dangerous blizzard conditions in the heart of lake effect snow band on Lake Erie shoreline near Lackawanna, NY early this morning!

 

The National Weather Service in Buffalo is using some very strong wording to discourage travelers from venturing into the extremely heavy band of snow.

Nws02

When all is said and done, according to WGRZ (Buffalo's NBC Affiliate) parts of South Buffalo could be digging out from an incredible FIVE to SIX FEET of SNOW!!!

Snowmap

And once this current snowstorm comes to an end, anothe surge of arctic air is expected to bring more very heavy snow on Thursday!

Nws01

Simply incredible even for New York standards!!  Needless to say, it looks like our friends in the Northeast will be digging out from this one for quite some time to come.  

The Lake Effect snow bands show up well on the visible satellite image.

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Notice the two main bands over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  This is where the most intense snows have been occuring.  Also note all the other smaller bands surrounding the other Great Lakes.  

How can these lake effect snowstorms be so intense???

The four primary factors that determine the intensity of these types of snowstorms is wind speed, wind direction (fetch), water temperature and air temperature.  

Lake-effect-diagram

Wind strength and fetch, the length of lake the wind has to cross over before reaching land, help determine how much moisture the storm can pick up.  

The difference in water temperature and air temperature determines the amount of instability that occurs within these storms.  The greater the difference between these two, the greater the instability.  

This is the main reason the current storm is so bad because the water temperature over the Great Lakes is still relatively warm from the summer months.  And now with the arrival of a Siberian Arctic air mass blowing over it, the difference in temperature is extreme leading to extreme instability, hence the incredible snowfall rates.

Time Lapse Video of Lake Effect Snow Band in South Buffalo

 

Scene from earlier today in Hamburg, NY where 30 inches had already fallen

 

Btw, the record for most snow from a single storm in Buffalo is 81.5" (6.8 feet) set over a five-day period between December 23 and 28 in 2001.  The current storm is on track to threaten this record!  Insane!!

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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