And a soggy one it is! After some light rain last night/overnight, showers spilled over the region from 7-10 am and will continue into the early afternoon.
Our set up for today includes two low pressure systems and a warm front. Our first dose of rain is thanks to the warm front, as it starts to lift north toward the area. We will get a brief break this afternoon, before a second round of showers and storms arrives this evening/tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center has almost our entire region under the risk for severe weather this evening. As the warm front lifts, it will increase our dew point temps and the moisture content of the atmosphere. There is also decent wind sheer as winds increase aloft. Therefore, there could be some strong to severe storms. The main threat is going to be hail and gusty winds. However, it really all depends on what happens during the dry time today.
Some of us will continue to see some rain this afternoon, mainly in the NE portion of the area. The rest of us will be briefly dry before act two this evening. It looks as though it will remain cloudy, and therefore, limit instability. It is going to be a touch and go situation for tonight in terms of severity, until we see what happens this afternoon.
The good news: One of the many events going on tonight is the opening night at Churchill Downs!
The bad news: Prepare for showers and storms. They will be scattered at first, but the likelihood of them increases throughout the evening.
By this evening, more showers and storms begin to fire off and this is our best chance for some severe weather. Again, threats are mainly small hail and gusty winds. It all comes down to the afternoon hours and if destabilization is able to occur, which will encourage severe weather.
A positive of the wet weather is that pollen counts are a lot lower today. But they spike right back up tomorrow and into next week. That's because Sunday/Monday will not be nearly as soggy.
Note there are three new main allergens: oak, mulberry and grasses.
Showers and storms will clear out overnight and we will start off Sunday with mostly cloudy skies.
BUT we are not done with the rain quite yet!
More showers and storms are possible for tomorrow afternoon but they will be more scattered. Notice on AT, the showers and storms are fewer and farther between compared to today, but some will have the potential to become severe. For now, SPC has us under a "marginal" threat level for tomorrow, which is the lowest level. The ingredients for tomorrow are almost the opposite from today. Models are showing more instability, but the winds are veering and there is no convergence. With CAPE levels as high as they are though, severe weather is possible.
We could see some heavy rain at times with these showers and storms. Models are not in complete agreement with this. I will say about half an inch to an inch. Below are the GFS, NAM, Euro models and they go from the lowest rain totals possible to the highest.
The cold front will finally trace through on Monday, keeping clouds thick. There could also be a rogue shower around, but for the most part, we will be dry.
Remember, you can always have your forecast on the go by downloading our smartphone app! Just check it out before you leave the house in order to plan ahead!
Rick will be in this evening for Jeremy and he will have the latest on the severe weather threat on WDRB. Be sure to tune in to see the latest data! Also, the derby is now on the seven day forecast!
I'll see you tomorrow morning from 6-9 am with another update in the forecast! Before then, let's connect!
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-Meteorologist Katie McGraw