10/19/2014

Our Sun Emits X-Class Flare! More To Come??

At approximately 1 AM ET this morning (October 19, 2014), our Sun unleashed an X class (highest class of solar flares) solar flare along it's eastern limb.  

A pulse of ultraviolet and X-radiation from the flare caused a wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour over portions Asia, Australia and Indonesia.

Oct19_2014_x1_1%207

See video of the X 1.1 blast here.

The X1.1 solar flare was the strongest of its kind in several months and follows a period of heightened solar activity over the last couple of weeks.  

Xray

The source from this mornings blast is a rather large sunspot, AR2192, that was detected a couple days ago as it first appeared over the sun's eastern limb.   

Despite the magnitude of the event, the giant flare was not accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

Oct19_2014

Big sunspots tend to produce large flares and AR2192, which is several times larger than the earth, is no exception and this area will continue to be monitored closely as it slowly rotates towards the earth in the coming days.  

This means that more big flares could be coming this week.  NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center has released a 5 day outlook for this week that includes a good chance of daily M class flares and a good chance that the AR2192 could fire off more X class flares this week!

B0WLBu4CAAAK3T3

The increased risk of strong flares will increase the chance of a geomagnetic storm here and the risk of more radio black outs.  

Stay tuned.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Watch A Hornet Get Cooked Alive By Bees...

The Japanese giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia japonica) is a subspecies of the world's largest hornet. It can grow to be more than 4.5 centimetres (1.8 in) long, with a wingspan greater than 6 centimetres (2.4 in). Scissor-like teeth allow them to kill up to forty honeybees a minute. Don't put your money on the hornet just yet! These honeybees have developed a clever stradegy to protect their colony. They swarm the hornet and begin vibrating in order to raise their body temperature to 117 degrees Fahrenheit. Japanese giant hornets can't handle the heat and literally get cooked alive! See for yourself in the video below...

 

Video Courtesy: Brian Taylor

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

10/18/2014

Frost Possible Tonight!

Tonight is shaping up to be one of the coldest so far this season for much of the region.  Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.  

Watch2

Locally, Lawrence, Jackson and Jennings Counties are included in the Frost Advisory that goes into effect at 3 AM ET tonight and remains in effect thru 9 AM ET Sunday.

Watch

So just how cold will it get?  

That will depend largely on cloud cover.  The current satellite is showing the low clouds that have plagued the area for most of the day are beginning to break up.  This trend looks to continue overnight allowing temps to drop.

Satrad2

Although this isn't expected to be a killing frost, the latest hi-res model data suggests that with temps falling into the middle 30's for parts of the area, a light scattered frost can be expected across portions of Southern Indiana.  

At temps

After a cold start, temps look to improve into the upper 40's and low 50's for most of the area by noon with plenty of sunshine.

At temps1

Despite the sun, afternoon highs will be limited to the upper 50's across most of Kentuckiana.  

At temps2

How long will the unseasonably cool weather last? 

The latest models continue to indicate that our weather will be controlled by a trough of low pressure that looks to get hung up over the Eastern US through the middle of the week.

Jet stream

Finally, this pattern looks to break down during the second half of the week allowing a gradual warming trend as we head towards next weekend.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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We Could See A Sunset Solar Eclipse Next Week!

Sunsets are always pretty.  One sunset this month could be out of this world. On Thursday, Oct. 23rd, the setting sun across eastern parts of the USA will be red, beautiful and … crescent-shaped. 

"It's a partial solar eclipse," explains longtime NASA eclipse expert Fred Espenak.  In other words, the New Moon is going to 'take a bite' out of the sun.

 

Video Courtesy: ScienceAtNASA

A total eclipse is when the Moon passes directly in front of the sun, completely hiding the solar disk and allowing the sun's ghostly corona to spring into view. A partial eclipse is when the Moon passes in front of the sun, off-center, with a fraction of the bright disk remaining uncovered.

The partial eclipse of Oct. 23rd will be visible from all of the United States except Hawaii and New England.  Coverage ranges from 12% in Florida to nearly 70% in Alaska.  Weather permitting, almost everyone in North America will be able to see the crescent.

The eclipse will be especially beautiful in eastern parts of the USA, where the Moon and sun line up at the end of the day, transforming the usual sunset into something weird and wonderful.

"Observers in the Central Time zone have the best view because the eclipse is in its maximum phase at sunset," says Espenak. "They will see a fiery crescent sinking below the horizon, dimmed to human visibility by low-hanging clouds and mist".

Warning: Don't stare. Even at maximum eclipse, a sliver of sun peeking out from behind the Moon can still cause pain and eye damage. Direct viewing should only be attempted with the aid of a safe solar filter.

During the eclipse, don't forget to look at the ground. Beneath a leafy tree, you might be surprised to find hundreds of crescent-shaped sunbeams dappling the grass. Overlapping leaves create a myriad of natural little pinhole cameras, each one casting an image of the crescent-sun onto the ground beneath the canopy. When the eclipsed sun approaches the horizon, look for the same images cast on walls or fences behind the trees.

Here's another trick: Criss-cross your fingers waffle-style and let the sun shine through the matrix of holes. You can cast crescent suns on sidewalks, driveways, friends, cats and dogs—you name it. Unlike a total eclipse, which lasts no more than a few minutes while the sun and Moon are perfectly aligned, the partial eclipse will goes on for more than an hour, plenty of time for this kind of shadow play.

A partial eclipse may not be total, but it is totally fun. 

See for yourself on Oct. 23rd.  The action begins at approximately 6 pm on the east coast, and 2 pm on the west coast. 

Credits:

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

A Frost Advisory Has Been Posted In Indiana...

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY.
Blog5
* TEMPERATURE...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WILL BE COMMON LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT EXPOSED OVERNIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. COVER OUTDOOR PLANTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE IF POSSIBLE.

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather



10/17/2014

WATCH LIVE VIDEO as Hurricane Gonzalo Bears Down On Bermuda...

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO BEARING DOWN ON BERMUDA...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS...Hurricane Gonzalo is now a category 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph! Bermuda will have to deal with hurricane-force winds for at least six hours along with tremendous amounts of rain. In addition, the storm surge could exceed 10 feet, swallowing coastal areas and causing entensive damage. Only 4 other MAJOR hurricanes on record have ever come this close to Bermuda. Gonzalo will be the 5th and you can watch it happen live by clicking on the link below...

 

http://portbermudawebcam.com

 

7

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Weather Blog: Chilly Change For The Weekend & Beyond

From Jude Redfield...

    Get ready to take the cool air plunge for the weekend.  Saturday isn't going to be as sunny as today with low clouds rolling through at times. Even though it will be cloudy at times tomorrow our rain chance is only 10%. A spotty shower can't be ruled out.  As clouds scatter and winds relax Saturday night we set the table for areas of frost early Sunday morning.  Our rain chance is only 30% on Monday so odds favor not much rain through next Friday. Get the wood ready for the fire pit!!!

SPC New Look

Watch_warning

Missouri

Stormview3

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10/16/2014

NOAA Issues Their Winter Forecast! Hoping For Another Snowy Winter? Details Inside...

Let me guess... you are wondering if the cold and snowy winter from last year will be repeated this year? A lot of people are wondering and today NOAA released their winter forecast. Here is a look at their winter assessment courtesy of the NOAA...

 

NOAA: Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

October 16, 2014

 

Facebook 2 pic

(Credit: NOAA)

Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

While drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter, California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering from exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the driest year on record. Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of California’s warmest years on record, and 2014 is shaping up to be California’s warmest year on record. Winter is the wet season in California, so mountainous snowfall will prove crucial for drought recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s southern and northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until December or January.

“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely. While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This outlook gives the public valuable information, allowing them to make informed decisions and plans for the season. It's an important tool as we build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

El Niño, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific that affects global weather patterns, may still develop this winter. Climate Prediction Center forecasters announced on Oct. 9 that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year. While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into California over the winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little help.

 

Facebook pic 2

(Credit: NOAA)

The Precipitation Outlook favors above-average precipitation across the southern tier, from the southern half of California, across the Southwest, South-central, and Gulf Coast states, Florida, and along the eastern seaboard to Maine. Above-average precipitation also is favored in southern Alaska and the Alaskan panhandle. Below-average precipitation is favored in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest.

Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.

In addition, the Temperature Outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in the Western U.S., extending from the west coast through most of the inter-mountain west and across the U.S.-Canadian border through New York and New England, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.

 

Video: Winter Outlook 2014-2015. (Credit: NOAA)

 

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal for these areas to make a prediction, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, updated today and valid through January, predicts drought removal or improvement in portions of California, the Central and Southern Plains, the desert Southwest, and portions of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Drought is likely to persist or intensify in portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Washington state. New drought development is likely in northeast Oregon, eastern Washington state, and small portions of Idaho and western Montana.

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

 

 

 

I know inevitably, some will ask what I am forecasting for winter. At this point, I haven't made a winter forecast but will look at it in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

It is Fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow". 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

MAJOR Changes To The Way Severe Weather Risks Are Communicated! Better Or Worse? What Do You Think!

The Storm Prediction Center has decided to go from a confusing 4 risks of t-storm risks to rediculously confusing 6 risks! This entire process is causing a lot of chatter in the meteorological community on how to handle these changes and if we feel it will ultimately confuse you even more. Does the average person in the public know the difference between a general t-storm risk and a marginal t-storm risk? How about the difference between a slight risk, and enhanced slight risk and a moderate risk? To me this makes a confusing system even worse and it is very frustrating that no TV mets that I know of were consulted when these changes were proposed and now implemented. Here are the changes that go into effect shortly per the NWS...

 

Experimental SPC Day 1, 2, 3 Convective Outlook Change Page

 

Overview of the Experimental SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

Updated August 8, 2014: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The changes will be implemented effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 1500 UTC.

Product Description Document (PDD): https://products.weather.gov/PDD/SPC_Day_1to3_Cat_Conv_Outlook.pdf.

The public comment period ended on June 17, 2014.

Q: How are the outlooks changing for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3?

A: The SPC will revise Day 1 through Day 3 categorical severe weather outlooks to better communicate risk and describe the likelihood of severe weather. Format changes will also improve the use of SPC severe weather forecasts for customers who incorporate SPC outlooks into GIS systems.

The SPC is expanding the risk categories from four to five and clarifying the risk previously labeled as "See Text." That descriptor will be replaced by a categorical line and the term "Marginal" to denote areas with a 5 percent probability of severe weather. The upper end of the "Slight Risk" category will be renamed "Enhanced" (short for "Enhanced Slight") to denote a threshold 30 percent probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the "Enhanced" risk category will denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

Current:

1. See Text
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Moderate (MDT)
4. High (HIGH)

Proposed:

1. Marginal (MRGL) - replaces the current SEE TEXT and now is described with Categorical line on the SPC Outlook.
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH) - will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HIGH)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category and SEE TEXT labels.

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category and SEE TEXT labels.

2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category.

2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the all categorie as opposed to the current SLGT/MDT/HIGH.

2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

 

Below is an example of a proposed Public Severe Weather Graphic that includes the new categories. This graphic is enlarged on the area of greatest risk and designed for use by media partners and social media.

Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic (Top)

 

: Why is the SPC proposing to do this?

A: A primary goal of these changes is to bring better consistency to the risks communicated in SPC outlooks, from the short-range Day 1 outlooks through the extended range Day 4-8 outlooks. The changes are being made based on customer feedback and to better meet their needs.

Example: Currently, a 10 percent tornado probability including a risk of a significant tornado (>=EF2) is categorized as a Slight Risk. This is the same category used for a "low end" 15 percent risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events. In the new scheme, a 10 percent tornado probability that includes the chance of significant tornadoes would be categorized as an Enhanced Risk.

In addition, "See Text" does not currently convey a threat area, due to the lack of a contour in any "See Text" categorical forecast. And the current "Slight Risk" category covers too broad a range of severe weather probability values.

Q: Are there cases where the current categories will change based on the underlying severe weather probabilities?

A: The thresholds for traditional risk categories are essentially unchanged but there is some refinement in the underlying definitions to remain consistent with evolving trends in severe weather reporting. These refinements would only impact a couple of Day 1 tornado and severe wind outlooks during any year. A 15 percent tornado probability without a threat of an EF-2 or greater tornado at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 tornado risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 Tornado Risk. Likewise, a 45 percent severe thunderstorm wind probability without a significant threat at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 wind risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 wind risk.

Q: Why not a more comprehensive overhaul of all categorical outlook words (i.e. SLGT, MDT, HIGH)?

A: The categorical words Slight, Moderate and High have been used by SPC for nearly 35 years and are generally understood by the weather risk communication community. Making measured changes to the current system, we believe, is more effective than a wholesale change. These measured changes include: 1) moving to de-emphasize the specific words; and 2) working to communicate the level of risk to the public in multiple ways. This includes numerical risk categorization, appropriate colors to indicate severity, and strategic use of icons and symbols. Social scientists have encouraged us to communicate on multiple levels and not just with a single word, label or category.

Q: When will this change occur?

A: A 45-Day Public Comment Period regarding the proposed outlook changes ended on June 17, 2014. After assessing the feedback and incorporating any needed adjustments, a Service Change Notice will be issued at least 75 days prior to the implementation of changes to the outlook categories.
Updated: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The change will be effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014, at 1500 UTC.

Q: What role did social science play in making this change?

A: The NWS has a strong commitment to engaging the social sciences in evolving our services, and this community has helped inform our decision making for this change.


Technical Details of the Proposed SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

The proposed effective date is mid-to-late September 2014. NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks for the CONUS will include two new risk categories.

The addition of the new risk categories is based on customer feedback and the need to provide better consistency with other NWS products. Examples of these Outlooks (using historical data), are depicted below.

"MARGINAL" replaces the current SEE TEXT used in these products.

"ENHANCED" is an additional category to delineate areas of risk in the high end of the current SLIGHT risk, but below MODERATE risk.


Click on the links below to view the section:

Proposed Product Text Example Day 1 Outlook Descriptions Day 2, 3 Outlook Descriptions Product IDs To Be Changed

Below is an example of the Convective Outlook text product containing "MARGINAL" (MRGL) and "ENHANCED" (ENH) risk area delineations and Summary section. (Top)

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
    
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   MS...AL...FAR NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS
   AND AL...NWRN GA...MUCH OF TN AND KY...WRN CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPLACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE
   NRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   EAST COAST...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
   THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS/AL...TN AND KY. FAST-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   (The rest of the discussion remains unchanged.)


With the addition of "MARGINAL" and "ENHANCED" categories, the new categorical Day 1-3 Outlooks will include contours for up to six (6) categories as follows: (Top)

Day 1: 
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms. 

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 2% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 5% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight 
      - 5% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 15% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 10% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 30% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 15% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 30% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 45% or greater severe wind probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
      - 45% or greater severe hail probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe hail probability.

   f. Severe Category 5 - High 
      - 30% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 45% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.
Day1 probability to categorical conversion table
Day 1 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table

Days 2 and 3: (Top)
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms.

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 5% or greater total severe probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight
      - 15% or greater total severe probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 30% or greater total severe probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 45% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado, a wind gust 75 mph or greater, or 
        hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater total severe probability (Day 2 only).

   f. Severe Category 5 - High (Day 2 only) 
      - 60% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado or a wind gust 75 mph or greater.
Day2 probability to categorical conversion table

Day 2 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table
Day3 probability to categorical conversion table

Day 3 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table

The following products reflect the changes: (Top)

   WMO Header    AWIPS ID    Description
   ACUS01 KWNS   SWODY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS01 KWNS   PTSDY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWE46 KWNS   RBG94O      Day 1 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ17 KWNS               Day 1 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS02 KWNS   SWODY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS02 KWNS   PTSDY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWK48 KWNS   RBG99O      Day 2 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ27 KWNS               Day 2 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS03 KWNS   SWODY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS03 KWNS   PTSDY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWI47 KWNS   RBG98O      Day 3 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ37 KWNS               Day 3 NDFD Categorical Outlook

   The "points" products (PTSDY1, PTSDY2, and PTSDY3) will include new labels "MRGL" (Marginal)
   and "ENH" (Enhanced).

 

 

My Thoughts...

 

Communicating the risk of severe weather effectively is the key to the most important part of my job. The 4 risks of severe weather are already confusing to a lot of people. Now the most confusing "slight" risk of severe weather just got more confusing because now there is a slight risk and an "enhanced" slight risk. Let's make a bad decision even worse and add to the general t-storm risk, a marginal risk. If you are sitting at home and I tell you that part of our area has a marginal risk, the other part has a slight risk, then another part has an enhanced slight risk, and finally another part has a moderate risk... how is this making a confusing storm risk system BETTER? I believe this will lead to mass confusion about what each risk means and I am 100% against this move. I just cannot believe someone felt that 6 different classes of storm risk was a good idea to help the public answer the simple question... will I see storms at my house and will they be severe? The answer is 6 different classes of risk?

 

 

It is Fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

10/15/2014

TYPHOON TIP: Strongest Storm Ever Observed!

On October 12th of 1979, a storm that had been churning over the Western Pacific Ocean for more than a week, grew to proportions for both size and intensity that had never been witnessed before.

Typhoon_tip_peakTyphoon Tip at its record peak intensity on October 12, 1979

On that date, Super Typhoon Tip's central pressure dropped to an astonishing 870 mb (25.69 inches Hg), the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded on Earth!  

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, peak winds reached and incredible 190 mph (305 kph)!!  

731px-Typhoon_Tip_fullGlobal satellite image of Typhoon Tip near peak strength and Typhoon Sarah striking Vietnam on the left.

A total of 40 U.S. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance missions flew into Typhoon Tip, making it one of the most closely monitored tropical cyclones to date, according to a post-analysis written by George Dunnavan and John Diercks.

The 870 minimum central pressure was six millibar lower than anything previously recorded (Super Typhoon June had a pressure of 876 mb in 1975) and is 12 millbar lower than any Atlantic Hurricane including Wilma's 882 mb recorded in 2005.

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Fortunately, Typhoon Tip slowly weakened before making landfall in southern Japan on Oct. 19th. However, the typhoon was still the most intense storm to hit Japan's main island in more than a decade. Tip claimed the lives of 86 people and injured hundreds of others.

Uf_typhooon_tipsPath of Super Typhoon Tip with storm statistics.  Image credit: AccuWeather

Not only did Super Typhoon Tip shatter world records for intensity, it was also a massive storm with a diameter of circulation spanning approximately 1,380 miles, making it the largest tropical cyclone ever measured!  The size almost doubled the previous record of 700 miles set by Typhoon Marge in August 1951.  

To put this into perspective, if Tip would have struck the US, it would have encompassed half the country!

Earths-strongest-most-massive-storm-ever_3Size comparison of Tip with respect to the United States.  Image credit: AccuWeather

One more interesting point to note about this storm, at its strongest, the temperature inside the eye of the storm was 86°F or 30°C and although they don't officially keep records for this sort of thing, it has been described as exceptionally high.

Here's a YouTube Video of Satellite Loop showing the lifespan of the storm.   

 

It was a scary storm to say the least!  Sure hope we don't have to see anything like that again soon.  

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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