08/19/2014

Another Severe Threat Posted For Wednesday! My Analysis Of The Threat Including When & Main Threats...

We had our first severe weather threat today with virtually all of the severe weather occurring to our west. The Storm Prediction Center has another slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday, so I want to share my analysis of that threat in tonight's blog...

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Wednesday

 

In their early afternoon update, SPC upgraded a chunk of our area into a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. This takes us from the general t-storm risk to a low end severe threat for Wednesday. Let me show you the location of the risk and severe weather probabilities.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday

Notice SPC has almost all of our area in a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. A few of our eastern and northeastern counties are not included, but most are included.

 

  Spc 2 cat

 

Severe Risk 2

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday

Notice SPC has a 15% chance of severe weather for the slight risk area and a 5% chance for the rest of our area.

 

Spc 2 prob

 

 

A Discussion Of The Severe Weather Risk On Wednesday

 

I always like to start severe weather discussions with a refresher on the ingredients I look for when trying to determine if severe weather is possible. We need all three of these ingredients in abundance for severe weather events.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Wind Energy / Instability

Like today, the instability on Wednesday will be absolutely through the roof. This assures us of fuel for t-storms, but that is almost always the case in the summer. The problem in summer tends to be wind energy coinciding with actual storms. To simplify this blog a bit, I will show you wind and instability on the same graphic. To assess wind energy, we are going to look at a value called bulk shear, which is a measure of the wind energy from the surface to about 6 miles above the ground. Traditionally, we need a minimum bulk shear value of 35 knots / 40 mph to support organized severe weather and you can see we just make it barely again on Wednesday. Conversely, the instability is nearly 4,000 units for part of the area which is borderline extreme instability.

 

NAM CAPE 1


 

Forcing

With favorable instability and somewhat favorable wind energy, this again comes down to whether there is forcing to fire storms in the heat of the afternoon on Wednesday. Like today, the data shows a disturbance, but it is very weak and likely comes through after peak heating on Wednesday. The problem is that the very warm mid level air acts as a cap / lid on the atmosphere and can limit storm development in the absense of a strong disturbance, so this weak disturbance becomes the key.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Wednesday

 

Once again, the data for Wednesday shows strong to borderline extreme instability in our area. This is easily supportive of severe weather. While the wind energy is not what I would call strong, it is still sufficient to support organized severe weather. The weak forcing becomes the big question mark yet again on Wednesday. With such weak rising motion from this disturbance combined with the fact that it won't likely come through until late means the severe threat is not high. The high resolution data and AdvanceTrak show the storms don't arrive for our area until late Wednesday night and they quite frankly struggle. As you look, notice the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

AdvanceTrak 1



AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3


AdvanceTrak 4

AdvanceTrak 5

AdvanceTrak 6


AdvanceTrak 7


With the mid level temperatures warming like crazy right now, we have a barrier to storms referred to as a cap/lid.  It does appear that the cap will hold during the afternoon on Wednesday keeping storms from forming in the most unstable air. The disturbance arrives Wednesday night and that appears to be the best chance for storms. Since the storms seem unlikely in peak heating, this does limit the severe potential. SPC has gone with a low end slight risk at 15% and I cannot argue that low end threat. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats, but again it doesn't look like a widespread threat.

 

As always, I will be watching...

 

 

 

Remember it is Summer storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

Weather Blog: Severe Weather Is Possible

From Jude Redfield...

    A few strong to severe storms could occur later this evening. At this point we will keep a 40%-50% chance in the forecast and then update once the broken line develops later this afternoon in Illinois and Indiana. How this comes together will determine how widespread the storms are. I do feel a few severe t-storm warnings are possible, but I don't see any data suggesting widespread severe storms. As long as you monitor the radar and updated forecast at 4pm/6:30pm/7pm/10pm you will be just fine.

    The primary damaging severe threat with this *POTENTIAL* comes in the form straight line wind. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will accompany any storm.  

    Only a 10%-20% exists this afternoon with the chances spiking from 8pm-2am.  By rush hour tomorrow we are left with areas of fog and relatively calm conditions. Make sure to check in with Marc later today as he will be updating the radar and tracking the storms out west as they develop -Jude Redfield-

LongRanger

Picture1

Satellite

Watch_warning

Untitled

Stormview3

 

 

08/18/2014

Severe Weather Risk Posted For Our Area Tuesday! My Full Analysis Inside...

The heat is going to be building in force the next few days with highs going into the mid 90s by weeks end. The problem is a few disturbances will be moving across the area through the week, and with this heat, severe weather is possible. The Storm Prediction Center has posted severe weather risks for the area, so we need to discuss... let's jump in.

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Tuesday

 

SPC has placed us in their slight risk of severe weather for Tuesday. This is an upgrade from the general t-storm risk earlier today, so let me show you the location of the risk and severe weather probabilities.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice SPC has areas north of KY parkways in the severe weather risk for Tuesday. This does not include E-town and areas south.

 

  Spc 2 cat

 

Severe Risk 1

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Notice SPC has a 15% chance of severe weather for the slight risk area and a 5% chance for the rest of our area.

 

Spc 2 prob

 

 

A Discussion Of The Severe Weather Risk On Tuesday

 

To get organized severe weather, we traditionally need specific ingredients present. Since we don't analyze severe threats all the time in the summer, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur. All three of these items need to be present for large scale organized severe weather events.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Wind Energy / Instability

The instability virtually every one of the next 7 days will be through the roof with the warm and sticky air mass that will be in place. This assures us of fuel for t-storms, but many times in the summer the wind enery is not sufficient. To simplify this blog a bit, I will show bulk shear, which is a measure of the wind energy from the surface to about 6 miles above the ground. Traditionally, we need a minimum bulk shear value of 35 knots / 40 mph to support organized severe weather and you can see we just make it on Tuesday. The bulk shear value is 35 knot / 40 mph for our area.

 

NAM CAPE 1


 

Forcing

With favorable instability and somewhat favorable wind energy, we need to determine if there is anything to fire storms in the hot part of the day? The answer is no, but there is a disturbance that will move over Indy late in the day on Tuesday and this is will be the key to any severe chances on Tuesday. While this is a weak disturbance, I do feel it will fire storms near Indy and then this all comes down to whether or not they can drift south into our area.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Tuesday

 

The data suggests the instability will be easily supportive of severe weather with high dewpoints and hot temperatures on Tuesday. In fact, the instability is quite strong approaching 4,000 units. The wind energy is bottom of the barrel, but still barely meets criteria I look for to support organized severe weather. That means we have an atmosphere supportive of severe weather IF, and the key word is IF storms fire on Tuesday. Most of the reliable computer model data shows a disturbance moving through Indy near sunset on Tuesday. For those storms to get here, we would need them to dive fully south which seems a bit of a stretch since they will be in the forming phase. Normally storms would need to mature and in this setup, if they were to drop south, eastern Kentucky would have a greater risk. The high resolution data and AdvanceTrak never allow those storms to make that southward move and generally slide north and east of our area. The time of interest is 10 pm - 2 am and you will note the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

AdvanceTrak 1

AdvanceTrak 2

AdvanceTrak 3


AdvanceTrak 4

AdvanceTrak 5


AdvanceTrak 6


Summer time storms operate in less wind energy than storms any other time of the year and this introduces some uncertainty. Without as much steering flow, they can go against the mid level flow and in this case southward move. While I think the chance is lower, I cannot argue the low end slight risk of severe weather for our area as a protection. In my opinion, our northeast counties would have the best chance of seeing severe weather for our area with the threat decreasing as you head further south. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats in a situation like this.

 

As always, I will be watching...

 

 

 

Remember it is Summer storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

Video Of The Day...Cookiecutter Shark

From Jude Redfield...

    Shark Week is over. It's now safe to go back in the water. hahahaha

Read below and watch the video on one of craziest looking sharks I've ever seen.

5397212119_dbbd1dc91b_z
   

Diving at night looking for the cookiecutter shark (picture above), sounds like a great time to me...NOT! Watch the Shark Week video below and see what gives them a scare!

 

    More on what the Cookiecutter shark is and if we should be scared of them swimming in the oceans.

 

08/17/2014

More Beneficial Rains Today! Heating Up in Extended.

Although it turned out to be a gloomy weekend, at least we got something out of the deal... more needed rainfall!

Gfx

Totals so far averaged near one inch across Jefferson County with officially a little better than a half inch at the Louisville International Airport leaving us only 1.5" deficit on the year. 

Rad stp2

The rains were heavier across much of Southern Indiana with a solid 1 to 2 inches as you drive up Highway 150 from Floyd through Orange Counties.

Rad stp

To the south, the rains were even heavier where we needed it most.  How about 3"+ across Southern Breckinridge County and Grayson County picked up between 3/4" and 2" where a moderate drought had been ongoing.  This will certainly help. 

Rad

At last check, showers with embedded areas of heavy rain continued for areas along and south of I-64.  

These showers look to slowly diminish as they move off towards the east or northeast overnight as the slow moving low pressure system responsible for all the rain the last couple of days moves into the Mid-Appalachians.

Satrad

As the first low moves away, clouds look to linger with a slight chance of showers redeveloping into your Monday.  

A scondary low pressure system developing over the high plains will bring us a better chance of showers and storms again late Tuesday and into the day on Wednesday.

Gfx2

Temps will gradually warm during the period and we could be looking at a bona-fide heat wave by the second half of next week with highs projected to reach well up into the 90's!  

For an updated look at the forecast, be sure to join Jude first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

16437438_BG3

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

SPC highlights parts of our area for the possibility of strong/severe storms.

 The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Northeask Arksansas, Western Tennessee and Western Kentucky for the possibility of Severe Weather this afternoon.  The region of concern includes the far southwestern portion of our viewing area including Grayson and Southern Breckinridge Counties.  Here is their discussion...

Mcd1561

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE STORMS MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING
   ACROSS NRN MS INTO MIDDLE TN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS NWRN TN/SWRN KY AND ALSO ACROSS CNTRL AR NEAR LIT...WITH
   ADDITIONAL CU ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN AR. HEATING WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG IN AN
   AREA BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND
   OUTFLOW/ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. 

   FROM AR INTO WRN TN...MID-UPPER FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT 30-40 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER /PER VAD
   WINDS/FCST SOUNDINGS/ AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF
   STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...WINDS ARE BACKED AND HPX/LVX
   VAD WIND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION DECREASES WITH NERN EXTENT DUE TO EXTENSIVE
   CLOUDINESS. 

   GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE IS
   CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION.

Rad08

Although a few strong storms will be a possibility across our southern/southwestern counties later today, the bigger threat will come likely be in the form of localized flooding.  

Parts of our area has already picked up more than an inch of rain since late yesterday and additional heavy rain later this afternoon/evening could result in flash flooding in areas that do see the heaviest rains.  

Stay tuned for further updates later this afternoon and evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

16437438_BG3

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

Radar Update: A Soggy Sunday...

It has been a soggy Sunday for much of the area as low pressure slowly walks across the Ohio Valley. Bursts of rain and rumbles of thunder continue to travel eastward. The strongest of the storms out there are mainly south of the river. Here is a look at radar as of this 11:30 update...

EURO

Facebook1

FOG

Showers and thunderstorms will not last all day, but as we get deeper into the afternoon more storms will fire up. Plan for on and off rain with the potential for heavy downpours and intense lightning. Locations that get hit multiple times may have to deal with some flooding as water collects on the roadways.

Downs

There are a couple positives to the rain. First, we needed some and it also doesn't pose a severe weather threat. Don't get me wrong, a few of the storms this afternoon could pack a punch. I just think our severe threat is very low because the rain this morning really beat up the atmosphere. Take a look at the future radar images below to get a rough idea of the way this afternoon will look as storms move across Kentuckiana...

Earthquake

Ef4

Ef44

Tomorrow will offer up hit or miss storms along with one last day with highs in the 80's Tuesday will mark the beginning of a heat wave as highs cook into the 90's! Jeremy Kappell will be in later to track any storms and give you more info on the hazy, hot and humid pattern.

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

08/16/2014

Heavy Rain & Strong Storms Arrive Sunday!

Following a mostly cloudy and mild day today, rain has arrived for much of the area this evening.

Rad

Scattered, mainly light, showers will continue to be a possibility tonight.  

However, as low pressure moves over Kentuckiana tomorrow, the chance of heavy rain and storms will increase over the next 24 hours. 

Satrad

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At showing only isolated showers in our area out the door in the morning with heavy rain and storms approaching out of Western KY/Southwest IN.

At1

A few downpours begin to develop by early afternoon across the metro area.

At2

Storms organize across our wester/southwestern counties during the afternoon.

At3

Heavy rain and storms reach metro by early evening.  A few strong storms will be possible with gusty winds and torrential rainfall.

At4

Scattered showers and storms continue thru evening hours.

At5

The chance of rain remains high through tomorrow night.   Additional storms possible during the first half of the new workweek.

Rain chances

So how much are we talking about?  

The latest run of the NAM is indicating that there could be a large range in rainfall amounts across our area with some areas across Southern Indiana missing out on most of the heavy stuff.  

Rainfall projection

However, it is bringing a stripe of 1 - 2 inches for most of our Kentucky Counties between tonight and Tuesday evening.  

So what do I think? 

I think the NAM solution looks reasonable with the potential for the heaviest rain along and south of the river.  However, I would be surprised if we didn't get locally heavier rain in some cases with up to three inches possible for some of our southern/southwestern counties.  The potential is also there for some areas to see substantially less, especially for our northern/eastern counties.

Keep your fingers crossed, we could still use the rain!  

Be sure to join Rick with a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

16437438_BG3

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

 

Is There A Man On The Moon?

Thousands of people are convinced they've spotted a man on the surface of the Moon! Using Google Moon, people have zoomed in to this image of a possible alien on the lunar surface. What do you see?

 

Video Courtesy: wowforreeel

The image is a clear case of pareidolia, our tendency to see faces or other recognizable shapes in random formations. It is a psychological phenomenon involving a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) being perceived as significant, a form of apophenia. Common examples include seeing images of animals or faces in clouds and hearing hidden messages on records when played in reverse.

This isn't the first time something like this has come to our attention. Remember the image below of the Face on Mars? Satellite pictures taken at the right time and an angle had the appearance of a human face. Even though the possibility of life on the Moon is exciting, it's simply our brain playing tricks on us.  

Blog

A satellite photo of a mesa in Cydonia, often called the Face on Mars. Later imagery from other angles did not contain the illusion.

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

08/15/2014

Strong Storms / Heavy Rain Possible This Weekend! When To Expect The Storms & How Much Rain...

We have a slow moving storm that yet again will impact another weekend. The timing unfortunately is not ideal for outdoor plans, but in reality we are still at a deficit of about 1.7" so we could use the rain. Let's jump right into the "when" and "how much".

 

A Slow Moving Storms To Impact Us Sunday / Monday...

 

Just a week ago, we had a slow moving storm that brought rain chances for 3 days including the weekend. This weekend, the storm again will be a slow mover but really the rain time is Sunday into Monday and won't last quite as long. The problem is that this could impact outdoor plans for another weekend and specifically Sunday. The storm is creeping from the High Plains this way and will get here by Sunday.

 

SATRAD

 

While I am discussing heavy rain in this blog, I do want to mention there is some some lower tier wind energy that could justify a slight risk of severe weather for Sunday. There are real questions about the instability on Sunday, so I will mention isolated severe is possible, but that part is still a bit unclear. I think some severe probabilities will be needed.

 

How Much Rain Does The Data Indicate For The Weekend?

 

10 days ago, we had a rain deficit of over 4" and by the end of this week it is conceivable that rain deficit could be gone. The data is suggesting many could see an inch of rain with some going over two because there could be some slow moving storms. Th

 

EURO

 

GFS

 

NAM

 

AdvanceTrak Totals

 

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has been increasing their rain totals for the last 24 hours for our area and they now have over 1" of rain for Louisville north. Notice they have part of our southern Indiana counties peaking near 1.75".

 

HPC 1




 

My Thoughts On Rainfall Totals...

 

The data has absolutely come into better agreement in the last 24 hours. Virtually all the computer models are showing this storm moving through late Sunday into early Monday. With the agreement, it lends more confidence to this forecast. A wave of rain could come through in the morning on Sunday they Sunday afternoon into Monday morning the rain will likely be heavy at times. With the high dewpoints this weekend, the storms will be quite efficient at producing heavy rain and this means some localized flash flooding is possible. Overall a slow moving storm system is summer tends to be a good storm for producing heavy rain and Sunday looks like a good candidate to me.

 

I think for southern IN, we are looking at rainfall totals of 1" - 2". For areas along the river, it appears we could see another 1" of rain this weekend with locally higher totals if an area gets stuck under a t-storm. Southern KY will likely see near 1", but I won't rule out a 1" - 2" total depending on the storm track. There is some data that suggests a bullseye south of the river as well, but I am not ready to commit to that yet.

 

The bottom line is the weather is not really going to be good outdoor weather for Sunday, but the lawn will be getting some help late this week and in a summer with drought this will really help.

 

 

 

We are in Summer storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX