01/23/2015

Winter Weather Advisory Just Issued For Our Area! The Locations Included...

The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of our area. Here are the counties included in the advisory until 5 am Saturday...

 

Warnings

 

A combination of rain, sleet and snow is becoming more common across the area. More and more wet snow begins mixing in during the evening and overnight hours at the atmosphere cools. Snow then becomes the dominant precipitation type before pulling away shortly after midnight. Right now we are seeing much of the rain change over to snow in our area. Notice StormViewHD shows a lot of white in the area. The area of greatest concern is near the KY Parkways right now with moderate and heavy snow.

 

  StormViewHD 1

 

StormViewHD 2

 

StormViewHD 3

 

StormViewHD 4

 

StormViewHD 5

 

The best of accumulation chance lies along and south of the river. Our far southern counties of Indiana may see a brief period of light snow, but not enough to cause any problems. Kentucky is still the target zone where snow accumulations are possible this evening and overnight. While not a huge snow, we know that any snow can cause issues in our area and there will definitely be impacts. The main roads will hold up pretty well since they are so warm, but back roads in particular near the KY Parkways will get snow covered in spots. Right now, Louisville is on the very edge of light accumulation potential. We think areas in central Kentucky around the parkways have the best chance at seeing a 1" - 3" snowfall. The 3" shouldn't be the norm, but I wanted to include for the isolated totals that will approach 3". You will see more on your decks and cars with less on main roadways. Anything that falls Friday night quickly melts away Saturday as temperatures rise into the 40's.

 

 

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If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

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Weather Blog: *Snow Drought About To End*

From Jude Redfield...

    I have a feeling the snow drought of only trace amounts over the last 55 days comes to an end by tonight. Honestly it will be pretty easy to acheive this since we only need a tenth of an inch at the airport. That would be considered measurable snow. It looks as if Louisville metro will stay with mainly all snow with this even.t

    My other gut feeling is the NWS office will most likely issue winter weather advisories for parts of Kentucky.  If you have travel plans around dinner time or shortly after sunset I have a feeling slick roads will develop.

FutureRadarUpdate

 

FutureRadar2

Check out future radar images below...I think it will really help show the areas that stand the best chance of snow later this afternoon and where it heads this evening. While this isn't a winter storm it does have plenty of potential create some headaches by tonight. Any road that isn't treated while the snow is falling after sun down could easily get covered up.

Temps

 

Advancetrak

After midnight most of the snow heads east of Kentuckiana.  A large chunk of Kentucky will at least see a covering. I have a feeling parts of *Louisville* will end up with around an inch. It still appears the zone for the possibility of amounts around 2" will end up just south of Louisville. The map below shows my odds of seeing any accumulation by tonight.

Windchill comparison

Again this isn't a major winter storm, but snow amounts that could range from a covering to 2" is something we haven't seen in almost 2 months so it will create quite a bit of buzz. If you are taveling tonight in the snow watch for slick roads once the sun goes down. Have a great weekend! -Jude-

 

01/22/2015

Rain/Snow Mix Begins Friday! Details Inside...

WPC has Louisville in a 30-40% chance that more than 1" of snow could accumulate Friday night...

AdvanceTrak 3

Let's go over the basics and give you our thoughts about what's going to happen...

Where: Areas along and south of the Ohio River (Indiana misses out)

When: Light rain begins Friday afternoon, mixing with wet snow evening/overnight. 

How Much: A narrow band of minor accumulations in central Kentucky

NAM

EURO

GFS

There has been quite a bit of back & forth in the models with the track of this storm. This has a distinct impact on the northern extent of the rain/snow. Right now, Louisville is on the very edge of accumulation potential. If you are worried about accumulations, I think areas in central Kentucky around the parkways have the best chance. Up to 1" is possible in this zone. The intensity of precipitation playes a key role in determining how much dynamic cooling can occur. It looks like anything that falls would be *light* in nature.  With that said, it may take longer for snow to begin mixing in and most of what falls during the daylight hours will be in the liquid form. As the evening wears on, the atmopshere cools, and that when the changeover to snow begins. With the recent string of mild days, I don't think conditions on main roads will be an issue. Nonetheless, back roads may get slushy in spots and it's worth using extra caution. Snow may only stick to elevated surfaces like cars, roof tops, and grass. Anything that falls Friday night quickly melts away Saturday as temperatures rise into the 40's. Join Marc Weinberg tonight on WDRB for the very latest.

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

   

Mexico's Colima Volcano Eruption Captured By Webcam...

The Volcán de Colima, also known as Volcán de Fuego erupted yesterday sending ash into towns that were up to 15 miles away! It is the 26th most prominent peak in North America, located approximately 310 miles west of the capital Mexico City. Records show that Colima has erupted at least 40 times since 1576. Since the volcano's last major eruptions in 2013 and 2014, a series of webcams have been placed in the area to help monitor activity. A small pyroclastic flow was generated during the explosion and it was all captured in this video...

 

Video Courtesy: webcamsdemexico

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Weather Blog: Snow Or No Snow

From Jude Redfield...

    One thing that appears to be quite obvious at this point is not everyone in Kentuckiana will see snow Friday afternoon/night.  What does look likely is a NARROW band of wet snow will eventually set up by tomorrow evening. The best chance for this will stay south of the Ohio River.  This sure doesn't look like a major winter storm and probably isn't going to snarl traffic for a large section of Kentucky.

FutureRadar2

Snowpath

Windchill comparison

If this projected path above holds true then all accumulations will stay closer to the best chance snow zone shown below. Louisville metro looks to be on the northern fringe of this weather maker. While some snow is possible, the best chance for light accumulations remain south at this time.

Temps

As of now it sure doesn't look like anyone in our area would see more than an inch or two. If these amounts occured they would not be widespread, rather confined to a narrow swath where the band sets up.

FutureRadarUpdate

If Louisville doesn't see anything more than a trace then the snow drought will officially continue into the weekend. Stay tuned with Rick and Marc today as they look at new data this afternoon. -Jude Redfield-

01/21/2015

Rain/Snow Later This Week! Accumulations Possible...

There haven't been many signs of winter around here lately. We did have the cold for a while, but the past 5 days temperatures have been 50 degrees or better. Well, cooler air is on the way that will make it feel more like January. The next topic of discussion is wheteher or not we can get some snow. There are several opportunities showing up over the next 7-10 days that could potentially bring an end to the snow drought. It's important to take these systems one at a time because the behavior of one will ultimately determine the outcome for the others. Let's take a look at the first storm that is scheduled to arrive Friday afternoon. With temperatures climbing into the 40's, most of what falls during the daylight hours should be in the liquid state. As the atmosphere cools during the evening hours, most locations see a changeover to wet snow. This appears to last for 2 - 4 hours before the storm quickly races off to the east by Saturday morning...

11

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Blog5

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It's important to note that with the recent thaw, pavement temperatures are running way above the freezing mark. This means roads would end up being wet most of the time, and slushy in areas that get caught under heavier bands of snow. People who live along and south of the Ohio River have the best shot at seeing minor accumulations. Traveling Friday night could become tricky in central Kentucky, but up in Southern Indiana this probably won't cause many, if any issues. As temperatures jump back into the 40's Saturday afternoon, any snow should melt away rather quickly. Here is a look at what the GFS, NAM, EURO, and AdvanceTrak are currently thinking about snowfall totals...

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You never want to read these maps word for word, instead look for a geneal consensus among the computer models. The Bluegrass is without a doubt the target zone for snow at this point. Things can still change between now and Friday night so stay tuned for the latest. Marc Weinberg has more information about this storm and the others on WDRB!

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather



   

 

 

Weather Blog: Bluegrass Covered In White

From Jude Redfield...

    Our snow chances keep climbing for parts of the region late Friday. The trend over the last couple of days is to bring this system farther north. At some point this trend will level out, but right now the northern fringe of snow *COULD* be seen all the way up to the Ohio River. The heaviest precip and best chance for snow remains to the south of Louisville Metro. With the kind of variables seen with this storm it is still way too early to do all of the ifs and buts. Everyone of us knows the track will shift some between now and Friday so be ready to see more change with the current forecast.

Advancetrak

FutureRadar2

Windchill comparison

This cold core upper level low around 10k feet in the atmosphere will dictate how far north the snow makes it. The way I see it the potential path could end up between Bowling Green, Ky and Birmingham, AL. Our job is to narrow down the path between now and late Thursday to dial in the most accuarate forecast. By mid morning tomorrow we will have a very good handle on where exactly this is headed.

Snowpath

The most likely scenario right now is a track through the Tennessee Valley placing the best chance of snow in our southern counties. Some accumulation of wet snow is likely with this current path.

Temps

Stay tuned as we continue to update this daily. Marc will have an updated look on WDRB News at 4pm -Jude Redfield-

 

01/20/2015

A Pair of Possible Snow Producing Systems

Following three straight 50 degree days, we did one better today as the mercury hit the 60° mark this afternoon at the Louisville International Airport.  

The January thaw is appropriate considering we've now gone 54 days without measureable snowfall in the city.  This snow drought is especially remarkable considering it came on the heals of one of the snowiest Novembers in recent memory with 3.7" measured before winter even began.  

Snowfall projection euro

Although far from a lock at this range, it appears that our snow drought might come to an end before the end of the weekend.  

We are currently tracking two storm systems that will be impacting our weather over the next 3 to 5 days from now.   

Storm System #1

The first one, a southern tracking low, is currently located over Central California, or about 1,600 miles away.  

This system had previously been forecasted to miss our area to the south.  However, as Jude wrote about this morning, recent models have trended further north with this system an potentially, it could skirt our southern counties Friday night with the 12z run of the GFS bringing precipitation to just south of the Ohio River.  

Gfs_ptype_slp_ky_16

Could it accumulate?

There are several limiting factors with this system.  First, just how far north or south will this system end up going?  There's a chance the models do a double take and keep it completely south of our viewing area.  

Another limiting factor will be the cold air.  As it stands, this system doesn't look to have much with it and precip could fall mainly as rain, perhaps only mixing with a little wet snow at times.  

Consider the above with the fact that we are coming off a really warm stretch that has helped to warm the ground substantially above freezing, it seems unlikely that this storm will produce much if any accumulations in our area.  

 

Storm System #2 

Although much further away (about 4,000 miles from here in the middle of the Pacific Ocean right now), the second system seems to have a greater potential for snowfall in our area.  

This storm looks to develop over Alberta Canada (a typically breeding ground for "clipper" systems that often impact our weather this time of the year) early over the weekend, before diving southeast towards parts of the Ohio Valley by late on Sunday.  

So what can we expect?

The 12z run of the GFS seems to have the most consistent handle on this storm and currently tracks a low pressure center projected to move from near St. Louis down to near Knoxville between Sunday evening and early morning on Monday.

Gfs_ptype_slp_ky_23

This appears to be a fairly potent low and would be capable of producing a large swath of rain and snow through Kentuckiana. 

Gfs_ptype_slp_ky_24

If this track verifies (that's a big if btw) it could start as a rain/snow mixture for the metro area late afternoon or early evening on Sunday before changing over to snow Sunday night. 

Gfs_ptype_slp_ky_25

Precipitation looks to end as light snow or snow showers Monday morning. 

Could it accumulate?

The short answer to that one is YES.  Data supports the idea that there will be sufficient cold for part of the area and climatologically this is a favored track for snow in our area.  As it stands, the best chance for accumulations appears to be across our central and northeastern counties where the air will be coldest.  

While it is way too soon to start projecting just how much could fall, this is a storm that should be monitored and could impact travel out the door on Monday. 

Be sure to joing Marc with a full update on what to expect on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: Freaky Friday Or Sneaky Friday

From Jude Redfield...

    At least we have something to talk about! This isn't a post to get everyone worked up about a snow chance, but we do have some potential for late Friday.  An upper level feature slides into the Tennessee Valley keeping the best chance and heaviest precip to our south, but the northern edge could very well bring a band of wet snow to parts of Kentuckiana. As of now this chance remains south of the river. I'm not even going to play the ifs and buts game because this track will shift between now and then. Just kind of getting the word out that we have a possible player by Friday afternoon/night. As of right now I would call it a sneaky Friday, not a freaky Friday. Stay tuned and enjoy today's sunshine and 50s.  :)  -Jude-

Advancetrak

VortMax 700mb

Rainsnow

 

01/19/2015

VIDEO: Out of Control Big Rig Crashes on I-95

A New Brunswick New Jersey man is lucky to be alive.  After black ice had caused multiple wrecks along I-95 yesterday morning, a driver was caught in a bad situation as an out of control big rig approached from behind.  Meanwhile the driver calmly videod the entire ordeal.

 

YouTube Video uploaded by MrLegolize

"I was blocked by two trucks on south bound I-95 at exit 9 in NJ (New Brunswick exit). I only wanted to take a picture while i was awaiting for them to clear up... And then I heard noise from behind... I was barely missed."

Freezing rain and black ice was the blame for hundreds of wrecks across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast yesterday.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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