12/03/2016

Busy "Winter-Like" Pattern Developing. When to Expect Rain and then Snow!

I'll be brief and just hit the highlights here.    A very active "winter-like" pattern sets up this week with multiple rounds of rain and eventually temps come crashing with our first snow chances too!

Satrad

We are tracking a pair of low pressure systems.  The first travels south of us tomorrow bringing a good bet for some cold rain here.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

At4

At5

While the first one brings primarily light rain, mainly during the afternoon/evening on Sunday, the second storm, which comes quickly behind, it will bring the possibility of some more beneficial rainfall amounts.

At6

At7

Rain looks to start some time after midnight Monday night and looks to wind diminish during the morning hours on Tuesday.  

Gfx

Between the two systems, generous rainfall amounts of between three-quarters of an inch and an inch will be possible.

Rainfall projection

Now let's talk winter!

Notice how cold those temps are over Alaska where interior portions of the state are dealing with readings in the -20 to -30° F range. Some brutal stuff! 

Rtma_tmp2m_ak

This arctic air mass is set to invade the Central and Eastern US by late in the week with a full on shot arriving here by Thursday.

Gfs 850

These will be BY FAR the coldest conditions we've seen so far this season and the coldest overall since last Februrary.  

Highs on Thursday won't escape the 30's and wind chill readings look to plummet into the single digits for parts of the area by Friday morning! 

Advancetrak2

As mentioned, this cold will arrive with a chance of snow too!  While too early to talk about possible accumulations, just know that snow showers are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  They should taper off to flurries Thursday afternoon and accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces can't be ruled out at this point.  

In addition to the possibility of snow Thursday morning, there will be another, perhaps greater chance for snow late next weekend.  

I'll dive into more on that possibility tomorrow.  Stay tuned! 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Dramatic Video: Firefighter Escapes Wildfire

Videos continue to pour in after the "unfathomable" wildfires in Tennessee this week.  And this is another dramatic and scary one making the rounds on social media. The terrifying video below was captured by Lieutenant Steve Coker and his fiery journey through Gatlinburg earlier this week. It really captures how dangerous the conditions were.

Video Courtesy: Global News

The deadly fires are responsible for the deaths of at least 13 people but officials say that number could rise in the coming days. A number of families are still searching for their loved ones. Residents were allowed to enter the area yesterday (Friday) to see what was left of their homes and to salvage any of their belongings.

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12/02/2016

WATCH: Waterspout turned Tornado Churns off Coast of Destin, Florida

Severe weather ripped across northwestern Florida on Wednesday, leaving behind downed trees and damaged buildings thanks to highs winds related to a waterspout that eventually reformed into a tornado on land. Thankfully, there were no reported injuries. The National Weather Service said the radar signature of the storm featured a tight and strong circulation. One meteorologist, Mark Wool from the NWS, called it a "tornadic waterspout" in one interview.

This wild video below, was recorded by Caleb Richardson and posted to social media. It has since gone viral. You can clearly see the waterspout on the water, dissipate after it hits land, only to reform briefly as a tornado moments later. Pretty scary but also cool to watch!  This is a good reminder that waterspouts can be incredibly dangerous too!

Video Courtesy: The Cale Brich via Instagram

Below is the Mobile NWS storm report and public information statement from the 11-30 EF-0 tornado. In the image following the statement, there are two red dots on the panhandle of FL and those are what we are interested in for this blog.

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.75 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   175 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             November 30th, 2016
Start Time:             10:38 am CST
Start Location:         Just south of Hurlburt Field along US-98
Start Lat/Lon:          30.4105/-86.6812

End Date:               November 30th, 2016
End Time:               10:40 am CST
End Location:           Just west of Ready Avenue NW
End Lat/Lon:            30.4176/-86.6713

Survey summary: The tornado started as a waterspout over Santa Rosa Sound,
briefly lifted and then touched down as a tornado just south of Hurlburt
Field along U.S. Highway 98. The tornado tracked northeast and produced
sporadic damage along its path before lifting near Ready Avenue NW. The
damage was concentrated along Kohler Drive and Mary Esther Road. The
most significant damage occurred at two residences. One residence lost
part of its overhanging roof and the other home experienced significant
damage to a southward facing sunroom. Power lines were downed in the area
along with sporadic tree damage. 

12-2 storm reports

Here is another video of the Waterspout to give you an idea of how LARGE it was when it was on the water.

Video Courtesy: Breaking Disaster

 

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Hawaii Five Sn-O-w

From Jude Redfield...

    Ohio Valley snow hounds are soooo jealous of Hawaii. That is correct...higher elevations have seen some snow already, but a big one is coming over the next 24 hours! It isn't that uncommon to have snow above 8k feet in Hawaii, but this will be HUGE snow storm.  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect and some spots above 11k feet could see up to 30" or more!!!!  Essentially all areas between 8k - 11k feet wind up with close to 2 feet.  Put myself in the column of sooo jealous. 

Below is a picture of the current snow cover on the ground near the observatory on the Big Island. This is nothing compared to what is about to hit. I think it is gorgeous. Who else wants a big snow storm like this? I know I'm not alone :)

Shoes

RadarHelp

Rainamounts

12/01/2016

Throwback Thursday: Looking Back at Fall 2016

See Ya Next Fall!

Happy Meteorological Winter! We know this fall was a warm one but where do you think we ranked?

Each month of the season was warmer than normal, resulting in one of our warmest falls on record. In fact, this was THE WARMEST fall on record in Louisville. The average temperature was 64.8 degrees and that is 5.1 degrees above normal. 

Each month was also quite dry (10th driest fall on record for Louisville), causing severe to extreme levels of drought to develop south of the Ohio River by November. For three months, there was only 4.58'' of rain and that is 5.28'' under the norm. On the plus side, the dry conditions meant there was very little severe weather.


12-1 fall summary

Here are some other nearby cities and how the past three months shaped out to be:

  • Bowling Green: 3rd warmest and 6th driest fall on record
  • Frankfort: 2nd warmest and 10th driest fall on record
  • Lexington: 2nd warmest and 6th driest fall on record

NOVEMBER 2016: 

A dry pattern that set up in early October continued through much of November.  As a result, moderate drought that was in place across Kentucky at the beginning of the month had deepened significantly by the end of the month to extreme drought in the Lake Cumberland region, severe drought throughout central Kentucky, and moderate drought in southern Indiana. 

Rains finally returned on the 28th as widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms brought 0.5"-1.5" of welcome rain. 

Extreme drought

The month was also very warm- the 7th warmest to be exact.  The first two days of the month, in particular, were nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal. Records were broken on three days of the month. 

  • November 1st: Record high of 85° at Louisville
  • November 2nd: Record high of 85° at Louisville
  • November 18th: Record high of 81° at Louisville. This was our latest 80°+ temperature too!

Ready for colder air? Find out when we could get a taste of winter during the news this evening with Marc and Rick! I'll see you tomorrow during the news from 11:30-12:30 pm! Until then, we can connect on social media. Find me with the links below! 

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  -Meteorologist Katie McGraw

A Half & Half Kind Of Weather Weekend

From Jude Redfield...

    Since so many us from Louisville are heading to Bowling Green this weekend I thought a detailed forecast would be a good idea. First of all good luck to Central, Cal and Trinity as they battle for the state championship. Good luck to the WKU Toppers going for CUSA championship as well.

Friday night will be cold with temps in the upper 20s by sunrise Saturday. Temps warm quickly into the 40s during the day Saturday with clouds on the increase. Saturday should be just fine! Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning a band of light rain streaks in. This will be a cold rain in Bowling Green with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Spotty sprinkles and light rain continue for parts of Sunday. It doesn't look like a rain out, but plan for a 60% chance of getting wet at some point. This combined with a heavy canopy of clouds and temps in the 40s during the day will make for a chilly one.

ChristmasTree

     INTERESTING ITEM TO NOTE!

The future radar below represents sunrise Sunday. Keep in mind this is only one computer model and doesn't agree completely with other models, but it can't be ignored either. While this weak system brings a cold light rain to the Ohio Valley it can't be denied that some light snow could briefly mix in near the Ohio River and locations to the north.  This isn't anything to be concerned about, but some wet snow is a small possibility right now. 

Rainamounts

11/30/2016

HEADS UP! The ISS Will Be Visible For 6 Minutes...

Looking into the night sky and seeing the International Space Station fly overhead is mind-blowing! Just think, you are watching something that is 230 miles above you, flying at nearly 5 miles per second. Since it will be visible for such a long time, I wanted to let you know when and where to look...

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How To View The International Space Station

 

Thursday:

When To Look...

The ISS will be visible in our area this evening at 5:49 pm for 6 minutes! Usually these passes last about a minute or two so 6 minutes is more than enough time to view it. Don't forget, it will be moving FAST.

Where To Look...

At 5:49 pm, the ISS will appear about 10 degrees above the horizon in the south-southwest part of the sky and move toward the east-northeast. The ISS will reach a peak elevation of 28 degrees, which is sort of low on the horizon...

Weather

The skies will be partly cloudy across Indiana and mostly clear in Kentucky making viewing conditions a bit better to the south. Temperatures will be in the 40's so grab a jacket and enjoy!

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-Rick DeLuca

Rick

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December Outlook: Winter Arriving on Time!

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their updated December Outlook earlier today.  

According to their projections, we will see near normal temperatures locally with above normal precipitation.

Off15_temp

 Off15_prcp

CPC is also forecasting continued above normal temps across the Northeast and a large area of below normal temps for much of the Western US, particularly in the Central and Northern Rockies.  

The Looming Cold

As mentioned in the WDRB 2016-'17 Winter Outlook, while we have enjoyed more than our share of warmth so far this autumn, that has not been the case on the other side of the globe where much of Siberia and Eastern Europe have been experiencing record levels of both cold and snow for this time of the year.  

As also mentioned in the WDRB 2016-'17 Winter Outlook upper patterns appeared favorable for some of that cold and snow to swing into parts of the Western Hemisphere in the coming months.

Judging by current temps in interior Alaska, it appears that THE COLD HAS ARRIVED where the mercury has dipped to some 30 or even 40 degrees BELOW ZERO in some cases!

Rtma_tmp2m_ak

While clearly the "cross-polar flow" has set up across the Arctic.  The only question now becomes, when doe the cold arrive here?  

Agreement amongst the Data

Both the Euro and the GFS agree that the end of next week looks cold... very cold!  

Gfs_uv250_noram_33

Data suggest that a large trough of low pressure will swing from the Northern Rockies and into the Central - Eastern US by late in the week.  

This looks to bring an ABSOLUTE SURGE of cold arctic air into much of the Continental US.  There is GOOD AGREEMENT that this will occur where highs might not escape the 30's in our area by next Friday and lows will likely be MUCH LOWER than that next weekend, BRRR!!! 

Ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus2_37

What to the Models Say??

The latest data from the "Euro Weeklies", a longer range version of the European medium range weather model which goes out up to 45 days, shows the cold arriving in force across the Rockies next week and it beginning to arrive here in about 8 days. 

Eps_t2m_168h_northamer_2

 This cold then looks to expand and intensify as it engulfs almost all of the US during the 2nd week of the month.

Eps_t2m_168h_northamer_4

 Looking ahead towards the third week of December, it shows the cold remains in place over much of the Central and Eastern US.

Eps_t2m_168h_northamer_6

 Finally, the Weeklies are showing temps modifying to near normal towards Christmas and the final week of the month.

Eps_t2m_168h_northamer_8

So what do I think?

I think after a nice little warm up during the first half of next week, we are set to see the first ARCTIC INVASION of the season by late next week.  In addition, data supports the idea that we will see reinforcing shots of cold arriving through the middle of the month with modifying temps after that.  

As far as precipitation is concerned, I agree with CPC with the ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP forecast for the month.  This is supported by the weak La Nina that has developed over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, the warmer than normal sea surface temps in the Gulf of Mexico and the VERY ACTIVE jet stream winds that the models are projecting.  

So despite the abundance of warmth and lack of precipitation in recent months, with a serious cold snap looming in the near term, it looks like WINTER WILL indeed ARRIVE ON TIME this year.

In my opinion, at this point, it looks like temps will average out a little below normal for the month.  As far as snow is concerned, there is no guarantee that above normal precip and below normal temps result in a lot of snow.  However, considering we only average around 3.5" of snow each December, I like our chances!  

Stay tuned.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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First Above-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 2012 Produced Five Landfalling U.S. Storms...

November 30, 2016 As the Atlantic, eastern Pacific and central Pacific 2016 hurricane seasons end today, NOAA scientists said that all three regions saw above-normal seasons.

PHOTO-Hurricane-Matthew-100316-NOAA-photo-1120x534-LANDSCAPE

Image Credit: NOAA

For the Atlantic, this was the first above-normal season since 2012. The Atlantic saw 15 named storms during 2016, including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole). NOAA’s updated hurricane season outlook in August called for 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 of those predicted to become major hurricanes.

Five named storms made landfall in the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms struck. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South Carolina. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, as well as Hurricane Hermine, made landfall in Florida. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma in 2005.

Several Atlantic storms  made landfall outside of the United States during 2016: Tropical Storm Danielle in Mexico, Hurricane Earl in Belize, Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas, and Hurricane Otto in Nicaragua.

The strongest and longest-lived storm of the season was Matthew, which reached maximum sustained surface winds of 160 miles per hour and lasted as a major hurricane for eight days from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. Matthew was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007.

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Image Credit: NOAA

Matthew intensified into a major hurricane on Sept. 30 over the Caribbean Sea, making it the first major hurricane in that region since Poloma in 2008. It made landfall as a category 4 major hurricane in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas, causing extensive damage and loss of life. It then made landfall on Oct. 8 as a category 1 hurricane in the U.S. near McClellanville, South Carolina.

Matthew caused storm surge and beach erosion from Florida through North Carolina, and produced more than 10 inches of rain resulting in extensive freshwater flooding over much of the eastern Carolinas. The storm was responsible for the greatest U.S. loss of life due to inland flooding from a tropical system since torrential rains from Hurricane Floyd caused widespread and historic flooding in eastern North Carolina in 1999.

“The strength of Hurricane Matthew, as well as the increased number of U.S. landfalling storms this season, were linked to large areas of exceptionally weak vertical wind shear that resulted from a persistent ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere over Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic Ocean,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions, along with very warm Caribbean waters, helped fuel Matthew’s rapid strengthening.”

Eastern and central Pacific Hurricane Seasons

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Image Credit: NOAA

The eastern Pacific hurricane basin, which covers the eastern Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees West, produced 21 named storms during 2016, including 11 hurricanes of which 5 became major hurricanes. July through September was the most active three-month period on record for this basin. NOAA’s eastern Pacific hurricane season outlook called for 13 to 20 named storms, including 6 to 11 hurricanes, 3 to 6 of which were expected to become major hurricanes.

The central Pacific hurricane basin covers the Pacific Ocean west of 140 degrees West to the International Date Line. This basin saw seven tropical cyclones (includes tropical depressions and named storms) during 2016. All seven became named storms, and included three hurricanes of which two were major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Darby made landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii, marking the first time in recorded history that two storms in three years struck the Big Island (Darby in 2016 and Iselle in 2014). NOAA’s central Pacific hurricane season outlook called for 4 to 7 tropical cyclones. That outlook does not predict specific ranges of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Deadly Fires Destroy Resorts and Homes in Gatlinburg

Raging wildfires have left devastating results in Gatlinburg, Tennessee and the death toll continues to rise. The number stands at four but there are several families still searching for missing loved ones and reaching out with heartfelt messages. 14,000 residents and tourists were forced to evacuate with nothing but the clothes on their backs. More than 250 homes and businesses have been destroyed. This scary video is from INSIDE the Park Vista Hotel as it became a raging inferno. The person behind the camera evacuated shortly after.

Video Courtesy: Adam Palemno

As people fled, hundreds of firefighters headed into the flames fearlessly and more than 200 are still fighting flames and hot spots even after rain arrived with perfect timing last night. However, Tennessee is in the midst of an EXTREME drought. The rain helped yesterday but it won't end the drought. This drought didn't happen over night and it won't be fix with one rain event. Rainfall amounts are 10-15 inches below normal from the past 3 months. Therefore, the fire threat is still a risk.

Screen Shot 2016-11-30 at 3.56.51 PM

This video below is really striking. It is aerial coverage of the largest fire in Tennessee in 100 years.

Video Courtesy: Mr. Kapil Sharma

City leaders might start allowing people to return to the city later this week, perhaps as early as Friday. He says that will give business owners a chance to look at the damage. Right now, following the evacuations, it is a ghost town.

Video Courtesy: Jon Gaddis

Gatlinburg's mayor, Mike Werner said if you want to do something to help that is to come and vacation there, when they are back on their feet in just a short time. 

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