10/16/2014

NOAA Issues Their Winter Forecast! Hoping For Another Snowy Winter? Details Inside...

Let me guess... you are wondering if the cold and snowy winter from last year will be repeated this year? A lot of people are wondering and today NOAA released their winter forecast. Here is a look at their winter assessment courtesy of the NOAA...

 

NOAA: Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

October 16, 2014

 

Facebook 2 pic

(Credit: NOAA)

Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

While drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter, California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering from exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the driest year on record. Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of California’s warmest years on record, and 2014 is shaping up to be California’s warmest year on record. Winter is the wet season in California, so mountainous snowfall will prove crucial for drought recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s southern and northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until December or January.

“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely. While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This outlook gives the public valuable information, allowing them to make informed decisions and plans for the season. It's an important tool as we build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

El Niño, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific that affects global weather patterns, may still develop this winter. Climate Prediction Center forecasters announced on Oct. 9 that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year. While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into California over the winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little help.

 

Facebook pic 2

(Credit: NOAA)

The Precipitation Outlook favors above-average precipitation across the southern tier, from the southern half of California, across the Southwest, South-central, and Gulf Coast states, Florida, and along the eastern seaboard to Maine. Above-average precipitation also is favored in southern Alaska and the Alaskan panhandle. Below-average precipitation is favored in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest.

Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.

In addition, the Temperature Outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in the Western U.S., extending from the west coast through most of the inter-mountain west and across the U.S.-Canadian border through New York and New England, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.

 

Video: Winter Outlook 2014-2015. (Credit: NOAA)

 

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal for these areas to make a prediction, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, updated today and valid through January, predicts drought removal or improvement in portions of California, the Central and Southern Plains, the desert Southwest, and portions of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Drought is likely to persist or intensify in portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Washington state. New drought development is likely in northeast Oregon, eastern Washington state, and small portions of Idaho and western Montana.

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

 

 

 

I know inevitably, some will ask what I am forecasting for winter. At this point, I haven't made a winter forecast but will look at it in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

It is Fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow". 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

MAJOR Changes To The Way Severe Weather Risks Are Communicated! Better Or Worse? What Do You Think!

The Storm Prediction Center has decided to go from a confusing 4 risks of t-storm risks to rediculously confusing 6 risks! This entire process is causing a lot of chatter in the meteorological community on how to handle these changes and if we feel it will ultimately confuse you even more. Does the average person in the public know the difference between a general t-storm risk and a marginal t-storm risk? How about the difference between a slight risk, and enhanced slight risk and a moderate risk? To me this makes a confusing system even worse and it is very frustrating that no TV mets that I know of were consulted when these changes were proposed and now implemented. Here are the changes that go into effect shortly per the NWS...

 

Experimental SPC Day 1, 2, 3 Convective Outlook Change Page

 

Overview of the Experimental SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

Updated August 8, 2014: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The changes will be implemented effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 1500 UTC.

Product Description Document (PDD): https://products.weather.gov/PDD/SPC_Day_1to3_Cat_Conv_Outlook.pdf.

The public comment period ended on June 17, 2014.

Q: How are the outlooks changing for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3?

A: The SPC will revise Day 1 through Day 3 categorical severe weather outlooks to better communicate risk and describe the likelihood of severe weather. Format changes will also improve the use of SPC severe weather forecasts for customers who incorporate SPC outlooks into GIS systems.

The SPC is expanding the risk categories from four to five and clarifying the risk previously labeled as "See Text." That descriptor will be replaced by a categorical line and the term "Marginal" to denote areas with a 5 percent probability of severe weather. The upper end of the "Slight Risk" category will be renamed "Enhanced" (short for "Enhanced Slight") to denote a threshold 30 percent probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the "Enhanced" risk category will denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

Current:

1. See Text
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Moderate (MDT)
4. High (HIGH)

Proposed:

1. Marginal (MRGL) - replaces the current SEE TEXT and now is described with Categorical line on the SPC Outlook.
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH) - will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HIGH)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category and SEE TEXT labels.

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category and SEE TEXT labels.

2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category.

2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the all categorie as opposed to the current SLGT/MDT/HIGH.

2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

 

Below is an example of a proposed Public Severe Weather Graphic that includes the new categories. This graphic is enlarged on the area of greatest risk and designed for use by media partners and social media.

Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic (Top)

 

: Why is the SPC proposing to do this?

A: A primary goal of these changes is to bring better consistency to the risks communicated in SPC outlooks, from the short-range Day 1 outlooks through the extended range Day 4-8 outlooks. The changes are being made based on customer feedback and to better meet their needs.

Example: Currently, a 10 percent tornado probability including a risk of a significant tornado (>=EF2) is categorized as a Slight Risk. This is the same category used for a "low end" 15 percent risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events. In the new scheme, a 10 percent tornado probability that includes the chance of significant tornadoes would be categorized as an Enhanced Risk.

In addition, "See Text" does not currently convey a threat area, due to the lack of a contour in any "See Text" categorical forecast. And the current "Slight Risk" category covers too broad a range of severe weather probability values.

Q: Are there cases where the current categories will change based on the underlying severe weather probabilities?

A: The thresholds for traditional risk categories are essentially unchanged but there is some refinement in the underlying definitions to remain consistent with evolving trends in severe weather reporting. These refinements would only impact a couple of Day 1 tornado and severe wind outlooks during any year. A 15 percent tornado probability without a threat of an EF-2 or greater tornado at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 tornado risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 Tornado Risk. Likewise, a 45 percent severe thunderstorm wind probability without a significant threat at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 wind risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 wind risk.

Q: Why not a more comprehensive overhaul of all categorical outlook words (i.e. SLGT, MDT, HIGH)?

A: The categorical words Slight, Moderate and High have been used by SPC for nearly 35 years and are generally understood by the weather risk communication community. Making measured changes to the current system, we believe, is more effective than a wholesale change. These measured changes include: 1) moving to de-emphasize the specific words; and 2) working to communicate the level of risk to the public in multiple ways. This includes numerical risk categorization, appropriate colors to indicate severity, and strategic use of icons and symbols. Social scientists have encouraged us to communicate on multiple levels and not just with a single word, label or category.

Q: When will this change occur?

A: A 45-Day Public Comment Period regarding the proposed outlook changes ended on June 17, 2014. After assessing the feedback and incorporating any needed adjustments, a Service Change Notice will be issued at least 75 days prior to the implementation of changes to the outlook categories.
Updated: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The change will be effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014, at 1500 UTC.

Q: What role did social science play in making this change?

A: The NWS has a strong commitment to engaging the social sciences in evolving our services, and this community has helped inform our decision making for this change.


Technical Details of the Proposed SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

The proposed effective date is mid-to-late September 2014. NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks for the CONUS will include two new risk categories.

The addition of the new risk categories is based on customer feedback and the need to provide better consistency with other NWS products. Examples of these Outlooks (using historical data), are depicted below.

"MARGINAL" replaces the current SEE TEXT used in these products.

"ENHANCED" is an additional category to delineate areas of risk in the high end of the current SLIGHT risk, but below MODERATE risk.


Click on the links below to view the section:

Proposed Product Text Example Day 1 Outlook Descriptions Day 2, 3 Outlook Descriptions Product IDs To Be Changed

Below is an example of the Convective Outlook text product containing "MARGINAL" (MRGL) and "ENHANCED" (ENH) risk area delineations and Summary section. (Top)

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
    
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   MS...AL...FAR NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS
   AND AL...NWRN GA...MUCH OF TN AND KY...WRN CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPLACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE
   NRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   EAST COAST...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
   THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS/AL...TN AND KY. FAST-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   (The rest of the discussion remains unchanged.)


With the addition of "MARGINAL" and "ENHANCED" categories, the new categorical Day 1-3 Outlooks will include contours for up to six (6) categories as follows: (Top)

Day 1: 
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms. 

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 2% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 5% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight 
      - 5% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 15% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 10% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 30% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 15% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 30% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 45% or greater severe wind probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
      - 45% or greater severe hail probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe hail probability.

   f. Severe Category 5 - High 
      - 30% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 45% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.
Day1 probability to categorical conversion table
Day 1 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table

Days 2 and 3: (Top)
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms.

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 5% or greater total severe probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight
      - 15% or greater total severe probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 30% or greater total severe probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 45% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado, a wind gust 75 mph or greater, or 
        hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater total severe probability (Day 2 only).

   f. Severe Category 5 - High (Day 2 only) 
      - 60% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado or a wind gust 75 mph or greater.
Day2 probability to categorical conversion table

Day 2 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table
Day3 probability to categorical conversion table

Day 3 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table

The following products reflect the changes: (Top)

   WMO Header    AWIPS ID    Description
   ACUS01 KWNS   SWODY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS01 KWNS   PTSDY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWE46 KWNS   RBG94O      Day 1 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ17 KWNS               Day 1 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS02 KWNS   SWODY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS02 KWNS   PTSDY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWK48 KWNS   RBG99O      Day 2 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ27 KWNS               Day 2 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS03 KWNS   SWODY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS03 KWNS   PTSDY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWI47 KWNS   RBG98O      Day 3 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ37 KWNS               Day 3 NDFD Categorical Outlook

   The "points" products (PTSDY1, PTSDY2, and PTSDY3) will include new labels "MRGL" (Marginal)
   and "ENH" (Enhanced).

 

 

My Thoughts...

 

Communicating the risk of severe weather effectively is the key to the most important part of my job. The 4 risks of severe weather are already confusing to a lot of people. Now the most confusing "slight" risk of severe weather just got more confusing because now there is a slight risk and an "enhanced" slight risk. Let's make a bad decision even worse and add to the general t-storm risk, a marginal risk. If you are sitting at home and I tell you that part of our area has a marginal risk, the other part has a slight risk, then another part has an enhanced slight risk, and finally another part has a moderate risk... how is this making a confusing storm risk system BETTER? I believe this will lead to mass confusion about what each risk means and I am 100% against this move. I just cannot believe someone felt that 6 different classes of storm risk was a good idea to help the public answer the simple question... will I see storms at my house and will they be severe? The answer is 6 different classes of risk?

 

 

It is Fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

10/15/2014

TYPHOON TIP: Strongest Storm Ever Observed!

On October 12th of 1979, a storm that had been churning over the Western Pacific Ocean for more than a week, grew to proportions for both size and intensity that had never been witnessed before.

Typhoon_tip_peakTyphoon Tip at its record peak intensity on October 12, 1979

On that date, Super Typhoon Tip's central pressure dropped to an astonishing 870 mb (25.69 inches Hg), the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded on Earth!  

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, peak winds reached and incredible 190 mph (305 kph)!!  

731px-Typhoon_Tip_fullGlobal satellite image of Typhoon Tip near peak strength and Typhoon Sarah striking Vietnam on the left.

A total of 40 U.S. Air Force aircraft reconnaissance missions flew into Typhoon Tip, making it one of the most closely monitored tropical cyclones to date, according to a post-analysis written by George Dunnavan and John Diercks.

The 870 minimum central pressure was six millibar lower than anything previously recorded (Super Typhoon June had a pressure of 876 mb in 1975) and is 12 millbar lower than any Atlantic Hurricane including Wilma's 882 mb recorded in 2005.

Earths-strongest-most-massive-storm-ever_2

Fortunately, Typhoon Tip slowly weakened before making landfall in southern Japan on Oct. 19th. However, the typhoon was still the most intense storm to hit Japan's main island in more than a decade. Tip claimed the lives of 86 people and injured hundreds of others.

Uf_typhooon_tipsPath of Super Typhoon Tip with storm statistics.  Image credit: AccuWeather

Not only did Super Typhoon Tip shatter world records for intensity, it was also a massive storm with a diameter of circulation spanning approximately 1,380 miles, making it the largest tropical cyclone ever measured!  The size almost doubled the previous record of 700 miles set by Typhoon Marge in August 1951.  

To put this into perspective, if Tip would have struck the US, it would have encompassed half the country!

Earths-strongest-most-massive-storm-ever_3Size comparison of Tip with respect to the United States.  Image credit: AccuWeather

One more interesting point to note about this storm, at its strongest, the temperature inside the eye of the storm was 86°F or 30°C and although they don't officially keep records for this sort of thing, it has been described as exceptionally high.

Here's a YouTube Video of Satellite Loop showing the lifespan of the storm.   

 

It was a scary storm to say the least!  Sure hope we don't have to see anything like that again soon.  

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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10/14/2014

Is a major hurricane about to strike Hawaii?

The Central Pacific Hurricane Season has begun and all eyes are on newly formed Tropical Storm Ana.  

Currently, the storm is located approximately 815 miles ESE of Hilo on the big island of Hawaii and is packing sustained winds of 65 mph with a central pressure of 997 MB.  

Satrad

The storm is moving towards the WNW at approximately 8 mph.  

It is expected to continue along this path over the next few days while slowly strengthening into a hurricane.  

The storm could make landfall in Hawaii this weekend.  The official Hurricane Center forecast track takes it across southern portions of the big island on Saturday as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph.  

Tropics track

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding this system including margin of error with the forecast track and the storms intensity.  

The storm will soon be moving into warmer Pacific Ocean waters and this combined with favorable upper level winds could make this a stronger storm than is currently expected. 

In fact, some of the hi-res tropical forecast models, such as the HWRF below, strengthen the storm much faster and make it a strong category 3 hurricane with winds over 130 mph!

Panel_c_18

While Hawaii is no stranger to tropical systems, one of this magnitude would be pretty rare and hasn't happened since Hurricane Iniki in 1992 which struck Kauai with category 4 intensity.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: Rain, Rain & More Rain

From Jude Redfield...

    Our afternoon will be totally different compared to how the day started. Dry air is advancing in and we are expecting mostly cloudy skies with only a small chance for an isolated shower.

    Good thing we dry out today because we've had too much rain. Over the last 48 hours most locations have seen at least 1"-2"  Some spots have picked up over 3" during this time. Over the last week some of us have seen well over 4" & 5".  Tomorrow's showers aren't going to be as heavy, so don't expect to add on much more.  -Jude-

LongRanger

Stormview4

SevereRisk

10/13/2014

SPC has update on our severe threat...

 The Storm Prediction Center has an update on the severe threat over our area for tonight...

Mcd1884

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING.
   WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 541 IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
   THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS E/NE ACROSS INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.
   00Z RAOB FROM ILN SHOWED MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES ON
   THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SFC DEWPOINTS
   ALSO DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
   ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT BMG INDICATED WIND GUSTS ONLY
   TO 33 KT. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
   CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. GIVEN RECENT WEAKENING
   TRENDS AND THE POORER DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...A NEW WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

Rad

Be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Severe Storm With Damaging Winds Moving thru Southern Indiana

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Jackson, Brown, Monroe and Bartholomew for a storm capable of producing damaging winds.  Full details of warning below...

Rad2

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
  BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 907 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON TO 12 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF PAOLI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COLUMBUS...NASHVILLE...BROWNSTOWN...WOODVIEW HILLS...NORMAN...
  YELLOWWOOD LAKE...UNIONVILLE...ELKINSVILLE...PLEASANT VIEW...LAKE
  LEMON...MEDORA...KURTZ...STORY...HELMSBURG...VALLONIA...FREETOWN...
  STONE HEAD...BEANBLOSSOM...SPURGEONS CORNER AND GNAW BONE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

Rad

 

Be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Severe Storms Moving Into Area!

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for portions of Crawford, Dubois and Perry Counties for a storm capable of producing damaging winds.  Full details of warning below...

Rad2

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  EASTERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 840 PM EDT/740 PM CDT/

* AT 808 PM EDT/708 PM CDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
  A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JASPER TO TELL CITY...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SAINT ANTHONY...KELLERVILLE...SAINT MARKS...DUBOIS CROSSROADS...
  DUBOIS...ADYEVILLE...THALES...KYANA...CELESTINE...BRISTOW...
  SIBERIA...CRYSTAL...SCHNELLVILLE...RANGER...MENTOR...KITTERMAN
  CORNERS...CUZCO...SASSAFRAS...LILLY DALE AND ELLSWORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

Rad

Be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Severe T-Storms Moving Into Our Area With Damaging Winds To 60 MPH!

The NWS has issued a Severe T-Storm Warning for Dubois county in Indiana until 8:20 PM EDT. This storm is moving NE at 60 mph. It has the potential to produce small hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. In addition, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours will accompany this storm. Please use caution around this storm.

 

  AdvanceTrak 1

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 820 PM EDT

* AT 731 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF WINSLOW TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JASPER...MILLERSPORT...HOLLAND...DUFF...IRELAND...JOHNSBURG... HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT...HUNTINGBURG...PORTERSVILLE...SAINT HENRY... HAYSVILLE...MALTERSVILLE...BRETZVILLE...FERDINAND...SAINT ANTHONY...SAINT MARKS...KELLERVILLE...DUBOIS CROSSROADS...DUBOIS AND THALES.

 

The Tornado Watch remains in effect for the western half of our area until 1 am.

 

Warnings

 

 

It is Fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

 

 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

Tornado Watch Issued For Our Area! Discussing The Main Threats Inside...

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for our area, including Louisville, until  1 am. Remember, a tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes. Here are the locations included in this watch.

 

Warnings

 

Here is the discussion coming from the Storm Prediction Center regarding this tornado watch.

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 455 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND SSWLY DEEP SHEAR...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT...MOIST SLY LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF SRN IL/WRN KY SQLN. A MORE LIMITED/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST WITH MORE ISOLD STORMS THAT COULD FORM LATER THIS EVE AHEAD OF SQLN IN CNTRL KY. WHILE WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/VIGOR OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...THOSE LONGER-LIVED STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE PRONE TO LEWPS

 

I will have a full discussion on the threat on WDRB News at 6 pm and 10.

 

 

 

It is fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!