11/17/2014

RECORD COLD to Follow Today's Snow!

Last week I wrote an article concerning the potential for RECORD COLD in our area this week.  

The post describes how an anomalous upper level pattern would develop carrying Siberian Arctic air over the pole, down through Central Canada and into the Eastern US via the "POLAR EXPRESS".

Gfs_uv250_us_3

Siberian Arctic Air Arrives

Now that air mass has arrived across the Continental US where wind chill readings as of 6 PM this evening had dropped down into the -5 to -10° range across the Northern Tier.  

At8

Ordinarily, an air mass such as this would modify before reaching us at that strength.  However, as I warned in the Polar Express Blog, if we recieved snowfall prior to the arrival of this arctic airmass, then we would be in big trouble and that records were likely to fall.  And now, here we are.  

Let's time out the frigid cold...

The latest data indicates that temperatures will gradually fall this evening into the upper teens and very low 20's by 11 PM. 

At4

Temps continue to tumble overnight with air temperatures reaching the low teens and single digits out the door tomorrow!  

At5

Record Cold

The forecasted low of 11° would be a RECORD BREAKER.  The current record is 13° for the date set back in 1959.  

And that's not the worst of it.  With a steady 10 to 20 mph westerly wind, it will feel even colder!

The Real Feel

At2

Expect wind chill readings in the -5° to -10° range to start out the day! YIKES!!

By afternoon, air temperatures are expected to really struggle to warm despite a fair amount of sunshine with forecasted highs only reaching the low 20's for Louisville and upper teens for parts of the area!

Another Record!

This would represent a new RECORD minimum high temperature for the date breaking the previous record set WAY BACK in 1880!!  

At6

Wind chill readings look to remain in the single digits.  BRRR!!!

Following a RECORD early snow, it appears that two more records may fall.  

It's hard to believe that we are seeing weather like this in the middle of November!  Some perspective here, the average high this time of the year is 57 and the average low is 39°.  

The good news for warm weather fans is that our temps will improve by this weekend. 

Marc will have a full update on when to expect the warm up tonight on WDRB News.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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November Storm Brings Hefty Snow Amounts!

Last night's early season snow storm has departed, but not before leaving it's mark on the area.  

Snowfall totals

Officially, 2.9" fell at the Louisville International Airport which shattered the old record of 0.1" on this date back in 1951. 

So how early was this accumulating snow?  

According to the National Weather Service in Louisville, this was only the 4th time this much snow has fallen this early in the season and it hasn't occurred since 1966 when the November record was set (12.9" on Nov 2, 1966). 

Here are some other notable snowfall reports from across Southern Indiana and North-Central Kentucky...

Boston, KY - 1.0"

Bardstown, KY - 1.0"

Hodgenville, KY - 1.0"

Elizabethtown, KY 1.0"

Jasper, IN - 2.0"

Pewee Valley, KY - 2.0"

Lyndon, KY - 2.5"

Mount Washington, KY - 2.7"

Simpsonville, KY - 3.0"

Leavenworth, IN - 3.0"

Madison, IN - 3.5"

Milltown, IN - 3.5"

Bedford, KY - 4.0"

Salem, IN - 4.0"

Corydon, IN - 4.0"

Hanover, IN - 4.0"

Goshen, KY - 4.5"

Borden, IN - 4.5"

Floyds Knobs, IN - 4.5"

Otisco, IN - 5.0"

Greenville, IN - 5.0"

Palmyra, IN - 5.0"

Curby, IN - 5.0"

Marysville, IN - 5.5"

Pekin, IN - 6.0"

Jerry Copas The Knobs of Southern IndianaPhoto Credit: Jerry Copas taken in the The Knobs of Southern Indiana near St. Joe Road.

It was a beautiful wet snow that stuck to everything.  Hope you enjoyed it.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: Once In A Lifetime Kind Of Cold

From Jude Redfield...

    Well the break in the snow will be short lived for some as wind driven snow showers develop late this afternoon and evening. While not everyone gets in on the act, where they hit they will potentially create some issues. Quick coverings of snow along with reduced visibilites are likely with any snow shower. We are running at 50/50 chance of seeing them. Use caution if traveling and you encounter one of these. With the fresh snow pack and arctic air pouring in look for lows tonight to be in record territory. Some locations end up in the single digits. Tomorrow's projected high will almost certainly smash the record cold high for the day. Some spots will not get out of the teens. **This kind of cold air is a once in a lifetime kind of cold for this being so early in the season**

Rainestimates1

Picture3

SevereRisk

11/16/2014

Winter Storm Arrives! Latest Snowfall Totals.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across the entire area through midday on Monday.

Watch warn

At last check, we had a little bit of everything across Kentuckiana with rain over the Parkways, rain sleet and snow near the river and some light to moderate snow over Southern Indiana.

We have been slowly seeing the transition from rain to frozen precipitation in Jefferson County over the last hour or two and should be just about all snow from this point forward.

24 hour temp change

Low pressure continues continues to develop out of the Northern Gulf.  This low looks to track northeast into the Appalachians overnight bringing a much larger area of wintry precipitation including a band of potentially very heavy, accumulating, snow to much of the area.

Satrad

 

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT slowly pushes the rain snow line to the south reaching the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways by around 1 or 2 AM. 

Advancetrak

The snow looks to pick up in intensity as we head towards  4 AM with a large swath of accumulating snowfall over all of Southern Indiana down into Central Kentucky.

Advancetrak2

The rain/snow line clears our southern counties by daybreak with temps falling a degree or two below freezing for most of the area.

Advancetrak3

Light snow tapers off flurries by mid to late morning.  Temps remain cold!

Advancetrak4

So how much are we looking at? 

At this point, I think most of Kentuckiana will see accumulations on the order of 1 to 3 inches.  

I think Louisville will be close to that 3 to perhaps 4" range depending which side of the county you live on.

However, the heaviest snow looks to fall in a band of 3 to 5" over much of Southern Indiana and into Northern  Kentucky up the I-71 corridor.  I wouldn't be surprised if we get locally heavier amounts up to a half foot reported where the heaviest bands develop!  

I think Louisville will be close to that 3 to perhaps 4" range depending which side of the county you live on.  

Lighter amounts of an inch or less looks to accumulate across our southern counties where rain and sleet is expected to be the predominant precipitation type. 

Snowfall projection2

Moral of the story... While this won't be the storm of the century, it looks like a significant snow for many of us.  With temps falling below freezing, and snow/slush covered roads for the metro area and Southern Indiana, it will likely be a mess out the door in the morning!  

Be prepared for school closures and delays on the roads!  Be sure to tune in to Jude on WDRB in the Morning (Starting at 4 AM tomorrow!) with the very latest. 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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NWS Completes Conference Call Concerning Winter Storm

Nws01

The National Weather Serivice in Louisville held a conference call this afternoon concerning the approaching winter storm.  Here are the highlights. 

Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories have been posted

Nws02

 How much snow are they expecting?

Nws03

 Timing out the transition from rain to snow

Nws05

Nqa

Nws07

 

Summary

Nws08

Needless to say, be prepared for a rough commute!  The roads will be a mess out the door Monday morning in many areas.  

New data continues to roll in and further changes can be expected with this storm system.  I'll have a full update on those snow projections a bit later this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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A Winter Storm Warning has been Issued!

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Winter Storm Warning for portions of Kentuckiana.  The Warning includes many of our Southern Indiana Counties plus Trimble and Carroll Counties in Northern Kentucky and goes into effect at 8 PM ET 

Warn

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7
PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PICK UP IN
  INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
  IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

Else where across the area, A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for this storm and includes all of our counties with the exception of Adair in Southeastern Kentucky.

Warn2

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST
/10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
  AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN...AND PERHAPS A MIX OF SLEET...SHOULD
  START TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO
  NEAR DAWN ON MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE
  MONDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

I'll have a full update posted on what to expect as the storm begins to arrive later this evening.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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November Snow Storm Update: Timing And Totals...

Winter Weather Advisories go into effect at 11 PM tonight for a majority of Kentuckiana and continue through 12 PM Monday. There are even Winter Storm Warnings further off to the northeast, including Carroll county of Kentucky...

  4

A chilly rain will overspread the area later this afternoon. Light southerly winds help push temperatures into the 40's today, and that's why everything falling will be liquid and not frozen. As colder air collides with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we begin to see the rain transition over to snow tonight. Our counties in Southern Indiana will see this happen first as the freezing line moves from the northwest to the southeast. Just to give you a rough estimate, I would say the snow starts there between 7 PM - 10 PM. That changeover along the river is likely to occur from 11 PM - 2 AM. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type along and south of the Kentucky parkways with some backside snow early tomorrow.  

  6

7

APP

Blog5

Blog6

Slick roads and reduced visibilities will cause headaches during the Monday morning commute. Usually when it rains like this ahead of snow, it becomes more of a slushy mess. Snow should have an easier time sticking to the grass and elevated surfaces as temperatures hover near the freezing mark. With that said, please be extra careful tomorrow morning.

Blog7

Ok, so how much snow can we expect? The data seems to be in better agreement now that the storm is taking shape. A solid 1 - 3" is likely for a good chunk of the area, including Louisville. Just north of the Ohio, a stronger band of snow may set up that could deposit 2 - 4" amounts. Further south, many areas will miss out with up to 1" of snow at the most.

1

Jeremy Kappell will be in tonight with another update as things can still change at this stage in the game. Jude and I will be on WDRB In The Morning at 4 AM to keep you informed and safe.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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11/15/2014

Winter Advisories/Warnings Expected to be Issued!

This is a follow up to the blog I wrote earlier this evening.  

As expected, the Louisville National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a good chunk of the viewing area going into effect 8 PM ET Sunday Evening.  

Watch3

The Advisory includes all of Southern Indiana and parts of North-Central Kentucky including the Louisville Metro Area...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
SUNDAY TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7
PM CST/ SUNDAY TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN SHOULD START TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS
  SOUTHERN INDIANA BY MID EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE TRANSITION
  OCCURRING BY LATE EVENING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. NARROW BANDS OF
  HEAVIER SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO
  DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING TO FOUR INCHES.
  THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND
  WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

The latest guidance continues to suggest that entire area could see some accumulations with most areas recieving between 1 to 3 inches.

However, the potential is there for higher totals on the order of 3 to 5 inches possible for areas along and north of the Ohio River and up the I-71 corridor towards Cincinnati.  

Snowfall projection

Previous discussion below.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We continue to watch the potential for accumulating snowfall Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Earlier this afternoon the National Weather Service offices in both Indianapolis and Paducah issued Winter Weather Advisories for Central and Southwestern Indiana and into Western Kentucky.

Watch2

The question is, what will the Louisville NWS do?  

In my opinion, I think they will likely expand the Advisory to include all of Southern Indiana and into North-Central Kentucky for the expectation of rain changing to an accumulating snow Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.  

Watch

What's the difference between a Winter Weather Advisory and a Winter Storm Warning?

Our NWS defines a Winter Weather Advisory as an advisory that is issued when a mixture of frozen precipitation is expected but WILL NOT reach Warning Criteria.  

Our NWS will issued a Winter Storm Warning if there is a high probability that severe winter weather will occur, such as heavy snow or sleet, significant accumuations of freezing rain or any combination of these.  A Warning is normally issued within 12 hours in advance of the arrival of the expected event.

For snow, a Warning is usually issued if snowfall is expected to reach or exceed 4" in any 6 hour period or 6" in any 12 hour period.  

Will this storm reach Warning Criteria?

In my opinion, YES!  I do believe that parts of our area will see in excess of 4 inches of snow from this system.  As it stands, our Southern Indiana Counties have the greatest chance of seeing this occur. 

As the data becomes more clear, I expect the NWS to upgrade portions of our area to a Warning by tomorrow.

Where could the Warning be issued?

The latest GFS seems to have a pretty good handle on the situation and is projecting widespread 3 to 5" amounts for areas along and north of 64 into Southern Indiana.  

Snowfall projection gfs

This is the area that will see the highest potential for heavy snow accumulations and negative travel impacts come Monday morning.

Of course, with this storm still 24 hours away, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how this will all come together and ultimately how much snow falls especially in the Louisville metro area.

I'll be digesting the latest information just before the newscast tonight and will have a full update on what to expect on WDRB News at 10.  (On WMYO tonight b/c of football)

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Snow Update: Timing And Totals...

We are still on track to see our first accumulating snow of the season Sunday night. The storm is still over 36 hours away, so the exact location of where the heaviest snow band sets up is in question. However,  it's safe to say that a solid 1-3" should fall across parts of the area. Remember, this will begin as a combination of chilly rain and sleet late Sunday before transitioning over too all snow overnight. This will make for a messy commute Monday morning with slick roads being the main impact. A bulk of the snow should be pressing off to the east by 7 am, but a few leftover snow showers are possible. AdvanceTrak and NAM paint the highest accumulations along and north of the Ohio...  

1

2

Both the EURO and GFS are hinting at some higher totals in Kentuckiana. While I think these are a bit overdone, it's worth mentioning that some of the newest data is trending toward more snow. This is something that we need to watch very closely as we get closer to the event...

3

4

 

How Much Snow Will Fall?

The fact is a solid 1" - 3" snowfall is likely going to occur in our area late Sunday. The data suggests this will start as all snow or transition to all for southern Indiana quickly late on Sunday. This means you are most likely to catch the more substantial snowfall accumulation. How far south this area extends is still a bit uncertain, but this does include the northern row of our counties in Kentucky.

As we get near I-64 it becomes a bit more complicated. I do think it starts as a rain - snow mix in this area then a transition to snow will occur. That transition could occur as early as midnight on Sunday night and as late as around 4 am.

Our far southern counties will start as rain and end with some backside snow. I think lower accumulations would be most likely for your area. The exact track of the storm is critical to seeing if you can exceed 1" of snow.

Jeremy Kappell will be in tonight with an update. Enjoy the weekend!

 

-Rick DeLuca

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11/14/2014

Snow Is Likely For Our Area Later This Weekend! Accumulation Potential Inside...

We will see our first accumulating snow of the year for many in our area this weekend. As always, the location of that rain-snow line will be critical to determining how much snow you will see in your area and tonight I want to discuss the coming storm. As I am sure you guessed, there are some complexities since the storm is over 2 days away, but let's go through the latest data.

 

Sunday Night Snow Potential

 

The complexity regarding the storm on Sunday night has a lot to do with the location of the actual storm system. We will see a complicated "phasing" of the northern branch and southern branch of the jetstream on Sunday that will allow a storm in northern Canada to combine with a storm over Washington state. The storm in northern Canada is nearly 2500 miles from our area and no where near the US right now. Until a storm enters the US, it is not within the upper air observing stations of the US and the data can be unreliable at times.

 

Gfs_500_1

 

Since the storm is a LONG way from our area, we are still seeing some variety in the data. The GFS and EURO computer model show the rain-snow line near the river on Sunday night. I have highlighted the approximate rain-snow line with a white line on the GFS map for Sunday night below.

 

Gfs_1

 

The NAM computer model is running warmer and shows the rain-snow line near our northern counties in southern/central Indiana. The NAM computer model solution would lower the threat of accumulating snow for the city. Again, the approximate rain-snow line is highlighted with a white line.

 

Nam_1

 

With the differences of the loation of that rain-snow line, the snowfall totals are obviously very different in the data. 

 

Computer Model Snowfall Output

 

With the colder solutions showing up in the GFS and EURO, we see considerable higher snowfall totals while the warmer NAM shows less. For what it is worth, the EURO and GFS do tend to over forecast snowfall totals because of some of their weak resolution in the lower part of the atmosphere.

 

GFS Snowfall Totals For Sunday Night

 

GFS


 

EURO Snowfall Totals For Sunday Night

 

EURO


 

NAM Snowfall Totals For Sunday Night

 

NAM


 

AdvanceTrak Snowfall Totals For Sunday Night

 

AdvanceTrak Totals


 

My Thoughts On Snowfall Accumulation Potential Sunday Night

 

I always say this... there is never an easy snowfall forecast for our area. As is always the case, dialing in that rain snow line is going to be complex. With the storm of interest nearly 2500 miles from our area, it shouldn't surprise us that there is a variation in the data. Some background on some of the computer models can help you to understand why the differences exist. The EURO and GFS are called synoptic scale computer models and that means they deal with pattern recognition well. However, they are not in their element when low levels drive the train. The NAM is a mesoscale computer model that deals well with storms where a warm surge can occur, but it can be very unreliable beyond about 60 hours and this storm is currently 57 hours or so from our area. Since there will be some warm air trying to surge on the front of this storm, it raises some questions in the EURO and GFS data. At the same time, we are still over 48 hours away from the storm meaning the NAM computer model is not exactly in it's element either. This means, some of the specifics are not immediately clear at this point.

 

What is showing up in all the data is the warmer lower levels. We will likely reach about 43 Sunday afternoon on our high. This means the lower levels will take some time to cool and may never drop below freezing in the city. There is no question that this will knock down some of the accumulations on pavement and non-elevated surfaces in the city and most of our KY counties. Knowing the low levels will be on the warmer side makes these mid level temperatures critical and this is the specific are a I will be watching in the next few days.

 

How Much Snow Will Fall?

The fact is a solid 1" - 3" snowfall is likely going to occur in our area late Sunday. The data suggests this will start as all snow or transition to all for southern Indiana quickly late on Sunday. This means you are most likely to catch the more substantial snowfall accumulation. How far south this area extends is still a bit uncertain but I am including the northern side of our counties in Kentucky in this total.

As we get near I-64 it becomes a bit more complicated. I do think it starts as a rain - snow mix in this area then a transition to snow will occur. That transition could occur as early as midnight on Sunday night and as late as around 4 am. As we get closer to the actual event, I will be able to dial that in closely. To be honest, we just don't want to get in the race to be first. Our philosphy is to be the most accurate and will only give totals as the data allows. It appears snow accumulation of at least 1" is likely for the city, but how much more is still tough to say.

Our far southern counties will start as rain and end with some backside snow. I think lower accumulations would be most likely for your area. The exact track of the storm is critical to seeing if you can exceed 1" of snow.

 

When Will The Snow Fall?

Most of the precipitation will fall in the neighborhood of 10 pm on Sunday night to around 7 am on Monday morning. Since this does fall during the night it will negatively impact travel on Monday morning and could cause some school closures in our area.

 

Will It Stick?

 The short answer is yes. Notice the pavement temperatures in North Central Kentucky are already near freezing so this can stick in particular along and north of the river. Locations south of the parkways have warmer pavement temperatures so your road accumulations would be impacted by the warmer pavement.

 

Pavetemp

 

 

Weather Prediction Center Snowfall Forecast...

For what it is worth, the Weather Prediction Center has a 60% chance of greater than 2" of snow falling on Sunday night for Louisville.

 

WPC Snow

 

The WPC has only a 10% chance of 4" or more snow for our area on Sunday night.

 

WPC Snow 2

 

 

We will obviously be watching the storm closely and as the details become clear, we will update snowfall totals. Please continue to check back as we dial in those totals.


 

 

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