Spring is right around the corner and we've got 70's in the forecast tomorrow, so it is with a bit of irony that we finally have some winter weather to talk about!
Storm System #1
We continue to monitor the set up this weekend for the possibility of light snow for parts of the region as an unseasonably cold air mass moves in.
The latest data continues to bring a low pressure system out of the Rockies on Friday and then takes it into the Southeastern US Saturday and into Saturday night.
While there is good agreement with the amount of cold that will be in place (there will be plenty enough for snow locally), the track of the storm remains in question as models continue to suppress the system further and further south.
Using a blend of today's Euro/GFS and Canadian runs, you end up with a track like this...
... bringing a swath of light snow accumulations from around Omaha to St. Louis and then south towards Nashville and eventually eastward to Raleigh.
This would be largely a miss for our Central Counties including Louisville and points north into Indiana while some of our Southern/Southwestern Counties remain in the mix for some light accumulations.
I know that this information will probably disappoint snow lovers locally, but know that there will be at least one more opportunity in the near future.
Storm System #2
As this weekend's storm makes an exit, you can see the DRAMATIC temperature gradient that will run from NW to SE across the Continental US. Along this "baroclinic boundary" exists not one, but two disturbances with the second one making an appearance over Southern British Columbia Saturday night.
Ahead of this approaching low pressure system, there will be plenty of ARCTIC AIR in place with both the GFS and EURO advertising temps into the lower 20's and even some teens by Sunday morning. Yikes, that's gonna hurt after tomorrow's low 70's!!
With that being said, the GFS (shown below) creates a rain to snow scenario on Monday with the approach of a "clipper type" system. As temps fall, this will lead to another "chance" for accumulating snow Monday night.
This system has been showing up on the GFS and Euro for several days, only until now was located too far to the north to produce much in the way of wintry precip locally. Much like the first system, this one has trended south with time too.
So what do I think?
I think that winter is not finished with us quite yet. It is becoming clear that unseasonable cold will dominate our extended forecast and both systems remain in play for the possibility of snowfall. However, based on trends over the last day or two, it appears that the system early next week may be the better candidate for snow accumulations for our Central and Northern Counties.
We'll be watching! Be sure to join Rick this evening and Jude in the morning for a complete update on WDRB News.
WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell
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