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3 posts from January 2011

January 27, 2011

An "Interesting" Storm

Did that get your attention. :) In the short term we are only looking at a small clipper system, but next week we do need to watch a storm closely.

Let's start with our clipper system tonight. This is really a classic clipper type system for Kentuckiana.1

 

 

 

Notice the clipper is nearing our area around midnight tonight.

 

 

This is a very classic clipper system for the Ohio valley and means no more than about a dusting in Louisville with up to 1/2" - 1" from Seymour to Madison.

Next week more significant storm?

I thought this was worth a little more time to talk about. The suite of computer models have been in disagreement over the past few days, but appear to be diverging more toward the reliable Euro model. The GFS seems to be painting a more legitimate picture of the this storm versus the last few days. To be honest, it does have some similar characteristics to the storm that just passed by yesterday.Gfs_1

 

 

 

 

TUESDAY AT 7 PM

 

 

 

 

 Gfs_2

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY BY 7AM

 

 

 

 

 

Now some GFS precipitation totals for this time period where the snow could occur.

Gfs_3

 

 

 

The GFS is indicating a few inches of snow

 

 

 

The blue line in the above images over our area is the freezing line at about 5000 feet and a decent indicator of snow for our area, so this period does have a signal of snow. With that said, I don't buy the entire evolution of the storm and the large disconnect between the precip over the gulf states and the snow over our area.

I think accumulating snow is possible Tuesday through Wednesday next week, but I would like a little more time to dial in totals.

January 26, 2011

Winter Weather Blanketing the Area

Another Snow For Most of the Area

Winter weather continues across the area with another round of accumulating snow. Let's take a look at the radar, advisories, and go over the updated snowfall totals.

Some heavy banding has set up over the central part of the area and required me to upgrade my totals near the river. Here is a look at the early morning radar.Radar 1

 

 

Notice how the snow has heavy bands up to the Ohio River. That is what required me to update totals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of the area remains under a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning through 4 pm.

Winter_Weather_Advisories

 

Louisville west to Hardinsburg and east to Frankfort and north under a Winter Weather Advisory. A line from E-town west to Leitchfield and east to Anderson county then points south under a Winter Storm Warning.

  

 

 

 

 

Timing:

Most of the snow will fall before 9 am, then scattered snow showers  through noon, then mostly cloudy with flurries through the afternoon.

Snowfall Totals:

Snowfall in downtown Louisville look to be near 1" - 2" while south Louisville will have 2" - 4". Totals will fall as we go north of the river and increase as we go south of the river. Snowfall_Totals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remember for the latest Snow Fox school closings check out Fox41.com.

January 25, 2011

Some Significant Snow Possible ... Again!

Not Another Winter Storm!!!

For Southern Kentucky, actually yes we will see another winter storm. The short term forecast today brings some light drizzle and mist to most of the area. Dense fog is also reducing visibilities to under 1/4 mile just south of Louisville, so please you some caution this morning. Dense Fog

 

 

 

Even if you are not in the Dense Fog Advisory, remember there are many other areas reporting fog.

 

 

 

Now onto the more interesting parts of the forecast. A storm is going to ride along the Gulf Of Mexico. This puts part of our area in the sight of this storm. I have to tell you this is a very tricky forecast because the northern extent of the snow is going to be tough to pin and there will be a tight gradient where the snow amounts increase substantially. As we stand, the NWS has a Winter Storm Watch for Southern Kentucky. Winter_Weather_Advisories

 

 

Notice, the Munfordville, Greensburg, Columbia, etc. are all included in the watch. I do indeed think it is possible that a winter weather advisory may be necessary as for north as Bullitt County to Breckinridge County to Franklin County of Kentucky.

 

 

This is what we call back side snow. It means that cold air must filter in before we can transition to snow since we are sitting in the mid and upper 30s this morning. That critical time frame for Louisville would be around midnight and 4 am near Munfordville and 5 am near Columbia. North of the river there is nearly no real concern of significant accumulation.

Now for amounts. I am not buying a lot of what the computer models are indicating. A lot of blogs post the raw snowfall outputs from the models, but if you watch those you will notice they are all over the place, so if they are unreliable it doesn't seem wise to scare you. Remember computer models do not determine reality, they simply give their best estimate with tons of approximations. They are oscillating all over the place on amounts, so I want to rely a little more on traditionally what these situations can produce. The GFS seems to be initializing and forecasting the tier of upper lows well. This is the GFS for around 1 am.1

 

The important part at this time frame is the upper level winds over central and south central Kentucky will diverge aloft. This "deformation zone" will create a band of moderate to heavy snow.

 

 

 

My totals look like this... I think nothern Jefferson county could see up to a light accumulation and in southern Jefferson County could see up to 1" of snow. Southern Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky will see significantly higher totals. E-town to Leitchfield to Munfordville to Columbia will see 1-3" of snow with higher amounts the further south you go. Take a look at my snowfall accumulation map so you can pick out your area.

Snowfall_Totals 

We will try to update totals as the day progresses. School closings and delays seem likely for some parts of our area tomorrow.