In the short term, we have to talk about rain that will be moving into the area tonight through tomorrow. Some locations may change over to some light snow and that will be our first point of our morning discussion. In the longer range, there are some signals that may point toward a severe weather chance as a strong storm may develop late in the weekend and early next week. Let's take a look at both stories today.
Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Discussion
Rain is far to our west this morning and really of very little concern for us today. Very, very low humidities should be a great defender today from us getting much other than a light shower.
The latest track on this storm looks like it will move a little further south than when we talked yesterday. In fact, I think the chance of any light snow accumulating on this storm now are pretty small. I still think a small dusting could occur from Madison, IN, to North Vernon, IN to Seymour, IN, to Bedford, IN. All of our southern Indiana counties could end the system with some snow mixing in, but I don't think this system amounts to much. GFS is in full agreement with my thoughts here as well.
GFS Snowfall Totals through late Wednesday
Rather than overhyping a storm that doesn't deserve that, let's just move on and look at this system as primarily a rain event. Louisville will see mainly rain tonight and it may mix with a couple of wet flakes tomorrow. This is absolutely nothing to be worried about at all for Louisville.
Monday Severe Weather Threat???
There is a lot of flexibility in the long range forecasting right now. Keep in mind this is a number of days out, so we are still talking potential only. The longer range models are starting to repetitively indicate a very powerful low passing through Illinois into the Great Lakes region. That is a preferred track for severe weather in the Ohio Valley. Take a look at a very intense low pressure by early Monday morning over the Great Lakes.
GFS Forecast For Monday at 7 AM
Note a very, very intense 988mb low pressure over the Lakes.
GFS Forecast For Monday at 1 PM
Note the GFS shows the storms arriving early on Monday.
The GFS is indicating remarkable wind energy with this system. This is basically 3 times stronger than the wind energy with the storm system that produced severe weather across our area last week.
GFS Winds About 1 Mile Off the Ground for Monday at 7 AM
Note the incredibly robust winds near 65 mph - 75 mph over much of the area.
The GFS is also indicating sufficient instability to match this wind energy. Remember we like to see 1000 units of instability of more to support wind energy like this.
GFS Instability Forecast For Monday Morning
Note the 1000 - 1500 units of instability appraching the Ohio Valley Early Monday.
My Severe Weather Thoughts
I make no secrets that we have anything close to a firm grasp on a storm this far out. Judging solely on pattern recognition, I do think this storm does show a signal that can indeed produce severe weather in the Ohio Valley. The track this storm takes across the US is one the GFS tends to do very well with in terms of speed and timing. The larger pattern does seem to support the GFS solution of a very intense low pressure over the upper midwest as well. The GFS does show a morning time for the storms, which is not normally when we severe major severe events, but this far out that time frame is highly unreliable. What I do think will happen is a severe weather situation will occur in the region, but the exact location will need to be monitored closely. This does have the potential to be a significant storm system in a time of the year where the severe weather is climotologically favored in the Ohio Valley. I will be watching...
My Extended Forecast
Today we may enjoy some breaks in the clouds during the late morning or early afternoon, but still this should be a mainly cloudy day. Temperatures will top in the mid 50s and I will need to hold a slim chance of a shower during the day.
The rain will move into the area in the evening and continue for the night time hours. The heavier rain should fall south of the river. North of the river, in particular near Seymour, you will probably mix with snow by daybreak.
Tomorrow our northern counties will end with light snow while Louisville may mix with a few flakes as the storm departs. For our southern and south central Indiana counties, little to no accumulation is expected on this storm. Thursday or Friday could have a light shower or two, so I will keep a slim chance. Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend, but Sunday does not look like a wash out. The early part of Sunday may have some rain and thunderstorms then turning partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon. Finally Monday is a day we need to watch for any severe weather potential.