« March 2011 | Main | May 2011 »

115 posts from April 2011

April 29, 2011

EF-5 Tornado Now Confirmed In Mississippi

According to the NWS, one tornado now has been confirmed as an EF-5 in Mississippi from the April 27th storms. Take a look at their release below...

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...PRELIMINARY RARE EF-5 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUND SURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADO RATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADO DAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THEC ANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

* COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: SMITHVILLE AT 344 PM EDT 

* BEGINNING POINT: 34.0517, -88.4236

* ENDING POINT: 34.0731, -88.3814

* RATING: EF-5

* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 205 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2.82 MILES

* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE

* FATALITIES: 14

* INJURIES: 40

* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: 18 HOMES DESTROYED...2 BUSINESSES /POST OFFICE AND POLICE STATION/ DESTROYED...8 HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...7 BUSINESSES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...44 HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE...AND WATER SYSTEM DESTROYED. MOST TREES EITHER 
SNAPPED OR TWISTED AND DEBARKED. MOST THE HOMES DESTROYED WERE WELL BUILT...TWO STORIES...LESS THAN TEN YEARS OLD AND BOLTED DOWN TO THEIR FOUNDATIONS. AN 1965 CHEVY PICKUP TRUCK PARKED IN FRONT ONE OF THE DESTROYED HOMES HAS NOT BEEN FOUND. ALL APPLIANCES AND PLUMBING FIXTURES IN THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE PATH SHREDDED OR MISSING.

Rain in the weekend forecast, but the question is how much???

With swollen rivers across much of the area, we really need to think about how much rain could fall from the chances this weekend. There is a bit of a spread on rainfall totals coming from the computer models this morning, but I think we can get a good grasp on the amounts in our morning discussion.

 

Rain Forecast Discussion

 

A storm is going to approach the area this Sunday and we will see a quasi-stationary front get stuck near the river. This setup is vastly different from what we saw over the last 10 days. That system had a huge amount of moisture to work with, where this system has marginally moist air to work with and not near the warmth. That still means heavy rain could fall, but I don't see a way it could rival what we saw over the last 10 days. The GFS is going with smaller rain totals than the NAM, but that is commonly the case as NAM has a better grasp of convective events.

 

GFS Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Through Monday AM

Note the GFS  is indicating 1" to 1.5" for most of the area.

 

Gfs_precip_1 
 

NAM Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Through Monday AM

Note the NAM is showing 1.5" of rain from Louisville through southern Indiana and up to 3" for southern Kentucky.

 

Nam_precip_1 

 

HPC Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Through Monday AM

Note HPC is indicating around 1.5" to 2" of rain for most of the area.

 

HPC 1 

 

Remember much of the area remains under a flood warning with all the rain from our last system. The Ohio River has crested in most locations and it is falling, but this rain could delay falling below flood stage.

 

Flood_Advisories 

 

River Flooding 1 

 

 

My Rainfall Forecast

 

There is definitely a difference in how the NAM and GFS are dealing with this system. I do find some of the NAM info a bit unreliable right now because it seems to be moving the front too far south of the river. I think the problem with the NAM is overestimating the initial t-storms and their ability to shift the front south. I like the placement of the front and rainfall totals from the GFS. I think a widespread 1.5" rainfall total will occur Sunday and into early Monday. Some isolated totals further south could approach 2".

 

 

Full Extended Forecast

 

With so many outdoor events coming up, I wanted to touch on the extended. I love the weather tonight for the US Bank Great Balloon Glow with temps in the 60s - 70s. :)

 

KDF 1 

 

Tomorrow for Opening Night at Churchill Downs for the Spring Meet 2011, we should have a very warm afternoon and mild temperatures through the night. I have introduced a small 30% chance late, but it does look like rain won't start until late.

 

KDF 2 

 

On the longer range, I think showers look possible for the Pegasus Parade and Oaks could include a morning shower then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A chance does exist for showers late on Derby, but there remains some uncertainty still in that time frame. We will continue to dial in these forecasts as we get closer.

 

7DayWeb_wsi 

 

Nothing Less Than Remarkable StormView 3D Images of Tuscaloosa Tornado!

If you been watching us this storm season, you may have noticed we added StormView 3D to our toolbox in the Fox41 Weather Center. It is a remarkable piece of equipment that indicates rotation and tornado potential greater than any other tool I have ever seen in my life. The images StormView 3D captured of the Alabama tornadoes are truly incredible. Have a look...

 

This is StormView 3D showing rotation within this storm. Notice the massive tornado rotation going all the way to 30,000 feet and extending right down and touching the ground just east of Tuscaloosa!

 

3D Severe 

 

3D Severe 2 

 

3D Severe 3 

 

Here is an image that shows the actual tornado reaching down and touching the ground. You can actually see the 1 mile wide tube. At this point StormView 3D indicated a staggering a 215 mph rotation area just 2950 feet off the ground.

 

3D Severe 4 

 

You can actually see the debris that was picked up as the tornado sadly did so much damage to Tuscaloosa, AL.

 

StormViewHD 

 

This monster shot about 60,000 to 65,000 feet into the atmosphere. That is about 12 miles into the atmosphere.

 

3D Severe 5 

 

The death toll is at 297 as of 7 am today. Please keep the people of the south and southeast in your thoughts as a huge task lies ahead for our neighbors just 2 states away.