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May 31, 2011

Good News... It Will Get Cooler, But How Much?

The good news is that cooler temperatures are heading toward our area! Before you get too excited, it is not something that is going to last and the cool down is subtle at best. Before we leave today, here is a look at the record high we tied from the very wet 1937...

 

Almanac 

 

For our earlier discussion on the top, please click my previous blog entry here...

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/weinbergs-weather-blog/2011/05/lower-humidities-heading-toward-our-area.html

 

Forecast Discussion

 

A weak cool front will move across the area tomorrow. The temperatures will be affected by this front, but not a lot. The mid level winds are below our threshold of 35 - 40 mph, so other than a pulse severe we will have no organized severe threat.

 

Gfs_500_1 
The good news is that the temperatures will cool slightly in the coming days, but the ridge of high pressure responsible for this will re-establish itself very quickly. That means the heat will break slightly midweek, then be back in force later this week.

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Tomorrow AM

Notice the orange colors moving in displacing the hot reds. You can also see the "H" or high pressure pushed south.

 

Gfs_850_1 

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Friday

Notice the "H" or high pressure moving back north and the very hot reds returning.

 

Gfs_850_2 

 

Extended Forecast

 

The bottom line is a slight spell of the 90s is coming, but it won't last long. Major heat will build in by late in the week with records possible by Monday again! Here is a list of the records for the next 7 days with an asterisk on the days I think records are in danger...

 

Wednesday - 92

Thursday - 97

Friday - 100

Saturday - 100

Sunday - 96

Monday - 94*

Tuesday - 96

 

 

Comments

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I read where Accuweather is calling for a wet Summer and "another" channel was calling for a hot June with a more seasonal July and August.

What say you Marc?

I think I may write a blog on this tonight Jim. I assure you the skill in long range forecasting is simply horrendous when the major players are weaker. With a La Nina ending it makes the forecast accuracy much worse. I rely on drought conditions and tragectories in situations like this to long range.

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