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109 posts from May 2011

May 31, 2011

The Biggest Question I Have Been Asked... Will It Be A Hot Or Cooler Summer?

Everyone on my facebook page seems to be asking the same questions...

 

Will It Be A Hot Summer? Cool Summer? Wet Summer? Dry Summer?

 

The Climate Prediction Center has put their seasonal forecast out for the meteorological summer of June, July, and August. Their precipitation forecast is for near normal precipition and the temperature forecast is for us to have a cooler than normal summer. In fact they are forecasting a 40% chance of a cooler than normal summer for I-65 west and 33% chance for I-65 and east.

 

Seasonal Temperature Outlook 

 

As is commonly the case with many other forecasts, I don't totally agree with this forecast from the CPC. I think with weak El Nino/La Nina event having little impact on our weather and many other marginal signals, I feel there are some features in the US that will have a bigger impact on whether or not we are hotter than normal this summer. Tomorrow, I will give my thoughts on whether I think it will be a hotter or cooler than normal summer.

 

Good News... It Will Get Cooler, But How Much?

The good news is that cooler temperatures are heading toward our area! Before you get too excited, it is not something that is going to last and the cool down is subtle at best. Before we leave today, here is a look at the record high we tied from the very wet 1937...

 

Almanac 

 

For our earlier discussion on the top, please click my previous blog entry here...

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/weinbergs-weather-blog/2011/05/lower-humidities-heading-toward-our-area.html

 

Forecast Discussion

 

A weak cool front will move across the area tomorrow. The temperatures will be affected by this front, but not a lot. The mid level winds are below our threshold of 35 - 40 mph, so other than a pulse severe we will have no organized severe threat.

 

Gfs_500_1 
The good news is that the temperatures will cool slightly in the coming days, but the ridge of high pressure responsible for this will re-establish itself very quickly. That means the heat will break slightly midweek, then be back in force later this week.

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Tomorrow AM

Notice the orange colors moving in displacing the hot reds. You can also see the "H" or high pressure pushed south.

 

Gfs_850_1 

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Friday

Notice the "H" or high pressure moving back north and the very hot reds returning.

 

Gfs_850_2 

 

Extended Forecast

 

The bottom line is a slight spell of the 90s is coming, but it won't last long. Major heat will build in by late in the week with records possible by Monday again! Here is a list of the records for the next 7 days with an asterisk on the days I think records are in danger...

 

Wednesday - 92

Thursday - 97

Friday - 100

Saturday - 100

Sunday - 96

Monday - 94*

Tuesday - 96

 

 

Lower Humidities Heading Toward Our Area

It has been tremendously hot the last couple or days. We tied a record yesterday and we are making a run at another today. There is some help coming our way in the form of a cold front. Notice the temperatures as of 3 pm and specifically look toward Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Temps 

 

The heat index values show the really tremendous heat in our area right now!

 

Temps_DMA 

 

There is good news and bad news with this front... which would you like first? Ok, the good news first, we will see much lower humidities tomorrow and Thursday. The bad news is the temperatures will not get that much cooler. Let's stay positive and remember the much lower humidities will help a lot to get those heat index values a lot lower.

 

A little later today, we will talk specific numbers.