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109 posts from May 2011

May 30, 2011

Heat Is Still Coming on Strong... More Record Breaking Heat

I don't think it would be fair to describe this heat as anything less than a full summer like pattern. We have a massive ridge of high pressure controlling our area right now and it is flexing it's muscles today. We tied a record high temperature today that was set 116 years ago in as we soared into the mid 90s.

 

Almanac 

 

What you may not want to hear is the more records may fall.

 

Forecast Discussion

 

The upper level ridge over us is not something that traditionally graces our area in the spring, but this is a full summer like pattern. You can actually see how this big upper level high pressure is the dominating force again in our area for the next 7 days.

 

GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Today

Note, the big high pressure over our area forcing the air to rise up and over our area.

 

Gfs_500_1 

 

GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Wednesday

Notice how the ridge has flattened a little bit. That means the sinking air under that ridge will not be as pronounced and an isolated t-storm is possible mid week.

 

Gfs_500_2 

 

GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Today

Once again by Friday, we see our massive ridge of high pressure re-establishing itself. So very hot conditions will return by late in the week.


Gfs_500_3 

 

This is really the oscillation that we will see in the short term as we the ridge strengthens and weakens. When it is strong, there is tons of sinking air resulting lots of sunshine and major heat. When the ridge flattens, the amount of sinking air lessens and there are more clouds, slim t-shower chances, and not quite as hot temperatures.

 

Extended Forecast

 

Tonight will be very warm under mostly clear skies. Our temperatures will only fall to about 74.

 

Metro1Web_wsi 

 

The record high tomorrow is 94 set in 1937 and I think we will tie or beat that record. I have mostly sunny skies with a record breaking high of 95.

 

Metro2Web_wsi 

 

Finally, we will see a slight increase in our storm chances on Wednesday, then the ridge re-establishes itself pushing highs back into the mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. On Sunday / Monday, the ridge will flatten and the mid level high will weaken a little allowing another some chance of t-storm. The good news is I see no flooding rains in our near future.

 

7DayWeb_wsi 

 

 

May 27, 2011

More Tornadoes Now Confirmed In Our Area

3 more tornadoes now have been confirmed in our area taking the total to 5. Here is latest per the NWS...

 

StormViewHD 

 

StormViewHD 2 

 

Tornado #1:
Begin time:  9:50pm EDT
End time:  9:51 pm EDT
Begin Point:  1 mile south of Huntingburg
End point:  1 mile east of Huntingburg
EF Scale:  EF-2
Wind speed:  115 mph
Path length:  2 miles
Path width:  100 yards
Injuries:  0
Fatalities:  0

Tornado #2:
Begin time:  9:54pm EDT
End time:  9:55 pm EDT
Begin Point:  1.6 miles west of Haysville
End point:  Haysville
EF Scale:  EF-1
Wind speed:  100 mph
Path length:  1.9 miles
Path width:  60 yards
Injuries:  0
Fatalities:  0

Tornado #3:
Begin time:  10:22pm EDT
End time:  10:27 pm EDT
Begin Point:  2 miles south of Orleans
End point:  3.8 miles east of Orleans
EF Scale:  EF-2
Wind speed:  115 mph
Path length:  4.7 miles
Path width:  230 yards
Injuries:  0
Fatalities:  0
The tornado began along Route 37 where it uprooted and snapped several trees.  It expanded to its maximum width and strength about a mile into its path.  At that point it heavily damaged two brick homes and one wood gframe home as well as destroying a wood barn (overturning the tractor inside) and two metal outbuildings.  The tornado continued to the northeast damaging another outbuilding and uprooting and snapping numerous trees before lifting.

Tornado #4:
Begin time:  10:28pm EDT
End time:  10:31 pm EDT
Begin Point:  3.1 miles northwest of Saltillo
End point:  3.3 miles north of Saltillo
EF Scale:  EF-1
Wind speed:  100 mph
Path length:  3.2 miles
Path width:  150 yards
Injuries:  0
Fatalities:  0
After touching down and destroying a large wood barn the tornado moved to the northeast over farmland, snapping and uprooting numerous trees.  It continued throguh the extreme southeast corner of Lawrence County and entered Washington County before dissipating at Spangler Hill Road.

Tornado #5:
Begin time:  10:31pm EDT
End time:  10:33 pm EDT
Begin Point:  1.5 miles south southeast of Bono
End point:  2.5 miles south of Fort Ritner
EF Scale:  EF-1
Wind speed:  95 mph
Path length:  2.8 miles
Path width:  130 yards
Injuries:  0
Fatalities:  0
This tornado snapped and uprooted numerous trees along its path and heavily damaged a metal outbuilding on North Spangler Hill Road before dissipating near the intersection of North Spangler Hill Road and North White River Road.

Near Or Above Record Heat This Holiday Weekend

Well many of you asked for sunshine and warmer conditions and let me just say it will be here in force shortly. Many records are in danger of falling this weekend... it is going to be that hot!

 

For a good discussion on why it is getting warmer you can view my previous blog entry here...

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/weinbergs-weather-blog/2011/05/a-remarkable-chance-from-spring-to-summer-on-the-extended-why.html

 

 

Records That Could Fall...

 

For Saturday, all of our records are safe but Sunday and Monday are different animals. Here are some of the records for the weekend.

 

Text Graphic 
 

 

Full Extended Forecast

 

Saturday is the most iffy of the weekend days. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but with the high clouds in the afternoon I think we will still get through and warm us into the mid 80s. Sunday the flames fire as we high 95 under mostly sunny skies and on Monday I do think we will break that record with highs in the mid 90s.

 

Holiday Forecast 

 

The heat should hold through early next week then some moderating by the later part of the week.

 

7DayWeb_wsi