Severe Weather Is Possible In The Next 7 Days!
There is going to be a major warm-up next week followed by a serious cool down late in the week. Since we have the last storm behind us, it is time to talk about the next storm that will bring rain and t-storms in the middle of next week. The talk in this blog will be about the severe weather potential.
Tuesday / Wednesday Storm System
A storm that is 5 days out inherently will have distinct complexities with it, so I don't want to focus too much on the small details. I feel confident in saying the storm system will have significant wind energy associated with it. The latest GFS shows winds about 70 knot or 80 mph just 1 mile above the ground in our area late Tuesday / early Wednesday. Those are ferocious winds!
We also know that wind alone does not equal severe weather. We need instability as well and the time that instability is maximized is in the heat of the afternoon. The storm is coming through Baja Mexico and that is an area we almost always see computer models ejecting the storm in our direction WAY too fast.
Over the last 12 hours, we have see the GFS fight hard to get a hold of this storm and waffling when it brings the line of storms through. Notice the difference in the last 2 major runs.
GFS Precipitation Late Tuesday (7 PM Run From Yesterday)
Notice the GFS blows up a very distinct line of severe storm in our area late Tuesday on this run. When you get stripes of heavy precipitation from southwest to northeast like this then you have a distinct severe weather signal in the model.
GFS Precipitation Wednesday At 2 PM (7 AM Run From Today)
Notice the most recent major run of the GFS doesn't bring the line of storms through until 2 pm on Wednesday.
Adding to the complexity, the EURO shows the storms moving through around 11 PM on Tuesday which would likely produce some severe weather. Notice the signal of severe weather right over our area.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Early Next Week
This blog really serves as a good introduction to a major storm and front that will move across our area sometime from late Tuesday to midday Wednesday. We know the storm is moving through a part of the US / Mexico that likely will result in slowing on the storm system. A faster storm could mean the thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night while a slower storm means they could arrive as late as Wednesday afternoon. I honestly feel the passage of the storms is more likely early Wednesday than late Tuesday and that would put the storms in a cooler part of the day minimizing the instability (energy). With incredibly intense wind energy on this system, even a morning front passage could still produce some severe weather. As things stand right now, we need to monitor the timing of this system closely so we can evaluate the severe weather threat for Tuesday / Wednesday.
One last note, the wind energy is mainly unidirection wind shear which means the main threat would be damaging winds. The data has been fairly consistent here, so there is no reason to question that at this point. It is a storm of interest and we will be on it over the next 5 days.
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Posted by: NBA Basketball Shoes | 01/30/2013 at 01:58 AM