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05/20/2013

Severe Weather Risk For Tuesday / Wednesday ... Storm Prediction Center Midday Update!

The Storm Prediction Center has released their midday update for our severe weather risk on Tuesday / Wednesday. This will simply cover their latest risk, then I will have my assessment a little later today in my blog and on WDRB News at 4 pm.

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Tuesday

 

We have been talking about the severe weather risk for Tuesday and Wednesday for nearly a week now and SPC does not have us in the slight risk for severe weather. Here is their latest...

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather For Tuesday

Notice SPC has our entire area in a slight risk of severe weather for Tuesday. You can see the more dangerous moderate risk to our south.

 

Spc 2 cat

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather For Tuesday

Notice SPC is including our entire area in a 15% chance of severe weather with much higher probabilities to our south and west.

 

Spc 2 prob

 

 

Here is SPC's statement about Tuesday....

 

...MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE SURFACE PATTERN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL PERMIT REGIONS OF ENHANCED DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AMIDST A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

 

Wednesday Severe Weather Risk

 

SPC is also including a good chunk of the area in a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. It does include the Louisville area.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather For Wednesday

Notice SPC has a good chunk of our area in a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday too. This does include the Louisville area.

 

Spc 3 cat

 

Severe Risk 2

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather For Wednesday

Notice SPC includes a 15% chance of severe weather again for our area on Wednesday.

 

Spc 3 prob

 

 

I will have a full update with my thoughts later today on WDRB News at 4 pm and in my blog this evening.

 

 

 

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