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05/28/2013

Storms Are Possible Later This Week ... My Thoughts On Whether Any Could Be Severe!

We will see another solid front approach our area later this week and one day in particular has my attention for potential severe weather. Let's dive into this discussion tonight and look over the data.

 

Severe Weather Threat Later This Week...

 

As we look further into the future, we focus on instability and wind energy to help identify the days of interest. Tonight, I will use instability and a value called "bulk shear" to help us identify severe potential. Bulk shear allows us to see the differences in wind speed from the surface to 6 miles above the ground. Since I normally look for winds of 35 knot / 40 mph in the mid levels of the atmosphere to support organized severe weather, we need to look for bulk shear values near that speed. Let's dive in starting on Friday.

 

GFS Instability / Bulk Shear For Friday

We notice instability values near 2,500 units on Friday, but the bulk shear is not impressive. This means the organized severe weather risk is not very high on Friday as things stand.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

 

 

GFS Instability / Bulk Shear For Saturday

The GFS continues to show instability values near 2,000 units Saturday with bulk shear near 35 knots / 40 mph. This is a day that we need to investigate more later in the blog for an organized severe weather threat.

 

Gfs CAPE 2

 

 

 

GFS Instability / Bulk Shear For Sunday

Notice the GFS shows subpar wind energy and instability for an organized severe weather threat on Sunday.

 

Gfs CAPE 3

 

This means we need to look closer at Saturday's severe weather threat.

 

 

Severe Weather Potential Saturday / Saturday Night

 

We already know there will be instability values near 2,000 units late Saturday which is moderate instability. Looking closer at the wind energy, we can see enhanced winds just 1 mile above the ground late Saturday.

 

GFS Wind Energy 1 Mile Above The Ground Saturday

The GFS shows winds of near 40 - 45 knots / 45 - 50 mph late Saturday. This wind absolutely supports an organized severe weather threat.

Gfs_850_winds 1
Looking at the GFS precipitation, we should expect to see an explosion of storms late on Saturday. Let's see if that is the case.

 

GFS Precipitation Late Saturday

Notice the GFS shows a large explosion of storms late Saturday / Saturday night in our area. This is a severe weather signal on the GFS.

 

Gfs_1

 

 

My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Threat Later This Week 

 

The data suggests a marginal severe weather threat on Friday if storms fire late, but I am not sure they will. It does appear rain is more likely early on Friday, but highly questionable late in the day. That leaves us looking more closely at Saturday.

 

The data for Saturday shows wind energy that would support organized severe weather. In addition, there is a favorable area of wind just 1 mile above the ground that would definitely support a damaging wind threat. The instability is what I would call moderate instability and is definitely supportive of severe weather. The forcing comes from a front that will move in on Sunday and that should be enough to fire storms. The bottom line is that we see a severe weather signal on the GFS. At this point I would call the primary threats damaging winds and hail, but we will watch that closely. The timeline looks evening to early overnight on Saturday as things stand right now. I will update more in the coming days.

 

 

 

 

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