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10/03/2013

70 MPH Winds And Nearly 2 Feet Of Snow? Plus I Am Talking About Our Severe Threat...

Part of the country is preparing for Tropical Storm Karen now churning in the Gulf Of Mexico and the other part a blizzard! Fall is truly a transition season and we are seeing it play out in a huge way over the next 5 days! Check out this powerful storm...

 

Winter Storm / Severe Storm Discussion

 

The storm that is going to bring us rain and t-storms this weekend is moving across the Rockies right now and powering up. It will drop in pressure quicky and become a powerful fall storm in the next 24 hours. Notice the widespread snow already falling in Wyoming.

 

SATRAD

 

The data is throwing down some pretty brutal snowfall totals for South Dakota in particular. AdvanceTrak is throwing down the gauntlet showing over 2 feet of snow! Notice the Rapid City, SD forecast from AdvanceTrak going over 25" of snow.

 

AdvanceTrak Totals

 

Snow totals are huge, but add 70 mph winds to that and you have a dangerous storm. This thing is going to produce over a foot of snow with sustained winds of 55 mph in some locations that may gust to hurricane force. We have blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings blanketing Wyoming, South Dakota, and Colorado.

 

Warnings

 

 

My Thoughts On This Storm Plus Our Severe Threat...

 

This is truly the first real winter storm of the 2013 - 2014 fall / winter and it is really a powerhouse. It will wind up in the Rockies and northern plains producing huge snow with dangerous winds. The severe setup looks like a real problem near Iowa on Friday with a wind profile that does suggest tornadoes are in play. This will be a huge story in the next 5 days.

 

As for our area, the wind energy will be supportive of severe weather but the front appears that it will come through Sunday morning. As you know, storms get their fuel from heat and the morning in Fall is the cool part of the day. We would expect the instability (fuel) to be low for t-storms on Sunday morning and that is exactly what we see.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

As things stand right now, I think locally heavy rain remains the greatest threat with this front on Sunday. I can never rule out a rogue strong storm, but a large organized severe threat appears off the table for our area right now.

 

 

 

It is fall storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

Comments

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I really appreciate the way you break down the weather coming our way. Additionally, I really like your blogs about freak weather events. Thanks for all you do to keep us up to date on what is to come!

Barbara, I am worried people thought this was our area. I just wanted to blog about a freak early blizzard.

I appreciate you following the blog. :)

Is October normally a quiet month Marc?? just curious...
Seems early for such a powerful storm...esp the amount of snow forecasted .

Jeremy

Jeremy, this is definitely an early snow for sure. It is a very big snow too for SD.

Marc,

I was just in Great Falls and Helena Montana 3 weeks ago and it was in the mid 80's and beautiful then. Hard to believe the weather can change that fast in a short period of time. Wow!

Darin J

Wow, the pattern across the US is extremely active with Karen making landfall soon with possible flooding rains, a 2ft snowstorm in the Dakotas and Montana with blizzard conditions and up to Hurricane (75mph) force winds. And a RARE MODERATE RISK of severe storms in Iowa and Minnesota with flash flooding and possible large tornadoes. There's even a possible PDS (potentially dangerous situation) that could be issued according to NWS In Des Moines, IA

Darin, I agree. What a wild change!

Winters right around the corner! I hope my new snow tires arrive in the mail before the snow comes my way. My poor trunk couldn't handle driving in such weather with anything else.

Clarissa, it sure is! The monster blizzard I wrote about in this blog did a ton of damage in SD. :(

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